The climate impacts of bioenergy systems depend on market and regulatory policy contexts

Environmental outcomes of the US Renewable Fuel Standard

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) specifies the use of biofuels in the United States and thereby guides nearly half of all global biofuel production, yet outcomes of this keystone climate and environmental regulation remain unclear. Here we combine econometric analyses, land use observations, and biophysical models to estimate the realized effects of the RFS in aggregate and down to the scale of individual agricultural fields across the United States. We find that the RFS increased corn prices by 30% and the prices of other crops by 20%, which, in turn, expanded US corn cultivation by 2.8 Mha (8.7%) and total cropland by 2.1 Mha (2.4%) in the years following policy enactment (2008 to 2016). These changes increased annual nationwide fertilizer use by 3 to 8%, increased water quality degradants by 3 to 5%, and caused enough domestic land use change emissions such that the carbon intensity of corn ethanol produced under the RFS is no less than gasoline and likely at least 24% higher. These tradeoffs must be weighed alongside the benefits of biofuels as decision-makers consider the future of renewable energy policies and the potential for fuels like corn ethanol to meet climate mitigation goals.

Uncertainty of oil field GHG emissions resulting from information gaps: a Monte Carlo approach

Regulations on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from liquid fuel production generally work with incomplete data about oil production operations. We study the effect of incomplete information on estimates of GHG emissions from oil production operations. Data from California oil fields are used to generate probability distributions for eight oil field parameters previously found to affect GHG emissions. We use Monte Carlo (MC) analysis on three example oil fields to assess the change in uncertainty associated with learning of information. Single factor uncertainties are most sensitive to ignorance about water-oil ratio (WOR) and steam-oil ratio (SOR), resulting in distributions with coefficients of variation (CV) of 0.1-0.9 and 0.5, respectively. Using a combinatorial uncertainty analysis, we find that only a small number of variables need to be learned to greatly improve on the accuracy of MC mean. At most, three pieces of data are required to reduce bias in MC mean to less than 5% (absolute). However, the parameters of key importance in reducing uncertainty depend on oil field characteristics and on the metric of uncertainty applied. Bias in MC mean can remain after multiple pieces of information are learned, if key pieces of information are left unknown.

Abatement cost of GHG emissions for wood-based electricity and ethanol at production and consumption levels

Woody feedstocks will play a critical role in meeting the demand for biomass-based energy products in the US. We developed an integrated model using comparable system boundaries and common set of assumptions to ascertain unit cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of electricity and ethanol derived from slash pine (Pinus elliottii) at the production and consumption levels by considering existing automobile technologies. We also calculated abatement cost of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with respect to comparable energy products derived from fossil fuels. The production cost of electricity derived using wood chips was at least cheaper by 1 ¢ MJ⁻¹ over electricity derived from wood pellets. The production cost of ethanol without any income from cogenerated electricity was costlier by about 0.7 ¢ MJ⁻¹ than ethanol with income from cogenerated electricity. The production cost of electricity derived from wood chips was cheaper by at least 0.7 ¢ MJ⁻¹ than the energy equivalent cost of ethanol produced in presence of cogenerated electricity. The cost of using ethanol as a fuel in a flex-fuel vehicle was at least higher by 6 ¢ km⁻¹ than a comparable electric vehicle. The GHG intensity of per km distance traveled in a flex-fuel vehicle was greater or lower than an electric vehicle running on electricity derived from wood chips depending on presence and absence of GHG credits related with co-generated electricity. A carbon tax of at least $7 Mg CO₂e⁻¹ and $30 Mg CO₂e⁻¹ is needed to promote wood-based electricity and ethanol production in the US, respectively. The range of abatement cost of GHG emissions is significantly dependent on the harvest age and selected baseline especially for electricity generation.

Ethanol or bioelectricity? Life cycle assessment of lignocellulosic bioenergy use in light-duty vehicles

Our study evaluates life cycle energy use and GHG emissions of lignocellulosic ethanol and bioelectricity use in U.S. light-duty vehicles. The well-to-pump, pump-to-wheel, and vehicle cycle stages are modeled. All ethanol (E85) and bioelectricity pathways have similar life cycle fossil energy use (~ 100 MJ/100 vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT)) and net GHG emissions (~5 kg CO2eq./100 VKT), considerably lower (65-85%) than those of reference gasoline and U.S. grid-electricity pathways. E85 use in a hybrid vehicle and bioelectricity use in a fully electric vehicle also have similar life cycle biomass and total energy use (~ 350 and ~450 MJ/100 VKT, respectively); differences in well-to-pump and pump-to-wheel efficiencies can largely offset each other. Our energy use and net GHG emissions results contrast with findings in literature, which report better performance on these metrics for bioelectricity compared to ethanol. The primary source of differences in the studies is related to our development of pathways with comparable vehicle characteristics. Ethanol or vehicle electrification can reduce petroleum use, while bioelectricity may displace nonpetroleum energy sources. Regional characteristics may create conditions under which either ethanol or bioelectricity may be the superior option; however, neither has a clear advantage in terms of GHG emissions or energy use.

Achieving deep cuts in the carbon intensity of U.S. automobile transportation by 2050: complementary roles for electricity and biofuels

Passenger cars in the United States (U.S.) rely primarily on petroleum-derived fuels and contribute the majority of U.S. transportation-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Electricity and biofuels are two promising alternatives for reducing both the carbon intensity of automotive transportation and U.S. reliance on imported oil. However, as standalone solutions, the biofuels option is limited by land availability and the electricity option is limited by market adoption rates and technical challenges. This paper explores potential GHG emissions reductions attainable in the United States through 2050 with a county-level scenario analysis that combines ambitious plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) adoption rates with scale-up of cellulosic ethanol production. With PHEVs achieving a 58% share of the passenger car fleet by 2050, phasing out most corn ethanol and limiting cellulosic ethanol feedstocks to sustainably produced crop residues and dedicated crops, we project that the United States could supply the liquid fuels needed for the automobile fleet with an average blend of 80% ethanol (by volume) and 20% gasoline. If electricity for PHEV charging could be supplied by a combination of renewables and natural-gas combined-cycle power plants, the carbon intensity of automotive transport would be 79 g CO2e per vehicle-kilometer traveled, a 71% reduction relative to 2013.

Spatially-explicit life cycle assessment of sun-to-wheels transportation pathways in the U.S

Growth in biofuel production, which is meant to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fossil energy demand, is increasingly seen as a threat to food supply and natural habitats. Using photovoltaics (PV) to directly convert solar radiation into electricity for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is an alternative to photosynthesis, which suffers from a very low energy conversion efficiency. Assessments need to be spatially explicit, since solar insolation and crop yields vary widely between locations. This paper therefore compares direct land use, life cycle GHG emissions and fossil fuel requirements of five different sun-to-wheels conversion pathways for every county in the contiguous U.S.: Ethanol from corn or switchgrass for internal combustion vehicles (ICVs), electricity from corn or switchgrass for BEVs, and PV electricity for BEVs. Even the most land-use efficient biomass-based pathway (i.e., switchgrass bioelectricity in U.S. counties with hypothetical crop yields of over 24 tonnes/ha) requires 29 times more land than the PV-based alternative in the same locations. PV BEV systems also have the lowest life cycle GHG emissions throughout the U.S. and the lowest fossil fuel inputs, except for locations with hypothetical switchgrass yields of 16 or more tonnes/ha. Including indirect land use effects further strengthens the case for PV.

A biorefinery for mobility?

Biofuels are considered as a carbon neutral alternative to hydrocarbons in the transport sector and this approach has triggered concerns about the impact the production of biofuels might have on land usage. Another option that might also lead to reduced emissions in the transport sector is electricity based on renewable energy sources such as biomass. Below, we assess the benefits and drawbacks of the joint production of ethanol and electricity in a sugar cane based refinery, and the use of both energy forms in privately owned automobiles. In this analysis, we have considered technology for energy production that is currently available and cost competitive. The results show that the amount of land that is required to power our current automobile use needs is less than what is typically stated. According to our results that are based on 2010 values, 2 million ha of land are sufficient to power the Brazilian automobile fleet, 25 million ha are enough to satisfy the needs of the U.S. fleet, and 67 million ha are sufficient to cover the global autofuel requirements. When minor efficiency gains are considered, 19 million ha will be enough to satisfy the fuel needs of the U.S. fleet in 2030, whereas land required to supply the Brazilian and global fleet remain basically unchanged. Our analysis shows that the harvested energy density of sugar cane is 306 GJ/ha/yr, which is 1.7 times the value usually reported in the literature for biofuels. As a result, taking advantage of the primary energy potential of sugar cane, only 4% of the world's available cropland area would be sufficient to produce fuels that would power the global car fleet.