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Springer S, Masica DL, Dal Molin M, Douville C, Thoburn CJ, Afsari B, Li L, Cohen JD, Thompson E, Allen PJ, Klimstra DS, Schattner MA, Schmidt CM, Yip-Schneider M, Simpson RE, Fernandez-Del Castillo C, Mino-Kenudson M, Brugge W, Brand RE, Singhi AD, Scarpa A, Lawlor R, Salvia R, Zamboni G, Hong SM, Hwang DW, Jang JY, Kwon W, Swan N, Geoghegan J, Falconi M, Crippa S, Doglioni C, Paulino J, Schulick RD, Edil BH, Park W, Yachida S, Hijioka S, van Hooft J, He J, Weiss MJ, Burkhart R, Makary M, Canto MI, Goggins MG, Ptak J, Dobbyn L, Schaefer J, Sillman N, Popoli M, Klein AP, Tomasetti C, Karchin R, Papadopoulos N, Kinzler KW, Vogelstein B, Wolfgang CL, Hruban RH, Lennon AM. A multimodality test to guide the management of patients with a pancreatic cyst. Sci Transl Med 2019; 11:eaav4772. [PMID: 31316009 PMCID: PMC7859881 DOI: 10.1126/scitranslmed.aav4772] [Citation(s) in RCA: 131] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2018] [Revised: 01/07/2019] [Accepted: 06/24/2019] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Pancreatic cysts are common and often pose a management dilemma, because some cysts are precancerous, whereas others have little risk of developing into invasive cancers. We used supervised machine learning techniques to develop a comprehensive test, CompCyst, to guide the management of patients with pancreatic cysts. The test is based on selected clinical features, imaging characteristics, and cyst fluid genetic and biochemical markers. Using data from 436 patients with pancreatic cysts, we trained CompCyst to classify patients as those who required surgery, those who should be routinely monitored, and those who did not require further surveillance. We then tested CompCyst in an independent cohort of 426 patients, with histopathology used as the gold standard. We found that clinical management informed by the CompCyst test was more accurate than the management dictated by conventional clinical and imaging criteria alone. Application of the CompCyst test would have spared surgery in more than half of the patients who underwent unnecessary resection of their cysts. CompCyst therefore has the potential to reduce the patient morbidity and economic costs associated with current standard-of-care pancreatic cyst management practices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simeon Springer
- Ludwig Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute at the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - David L Masica
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Marco Dal Molin
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Christopher Douville
- Ludwig Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute at the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Christopher J Thoburn
- Ludwig Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute at the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Bahman Afsari
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Lu Li
- Ludwig Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute at the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Joshua D Cohen
- Ludwig Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute at the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Elizabeth Thompson
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Peter J Allen
- Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY 10065, USA
| | - David S Klimstra
- Department of Pathology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY 10065, USA
| | - Mark A Schattner
- Department of Gastroenterology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY 10065, USA
| | - C Max Schmidt
- Department of Surgery, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN 46202, USA
| | - Michele Yip-Schneider
- Department of Surgery, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN 46202, USA
| | - Rachel E Simpson
- Department of Surgery, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN 46202, USA
| | | | - Mari Mino-Kenudson
- Department of Histopathology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02114, USA
| | - William Brugge
- Department of Gastroenterology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02114, USA
| | - Randall E Brand
- Department of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh PA 15213, USA
| | - Aatur D Singhi
- Department of Pathology, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
| | - Aldo Scarpa
- ARC-Net Research Centre, University and Hospital Trust of Verona, Verona 37134, Italy
- Department of Pathology and Diagnostics, University and Hospital Trust of Verona, Verona 37134, Italy
| | - Rita Lawlor
- ARC-Net Research Centre, University and Hospital Trust of Verona, Verona 37134, Italy
- Department of Pathology and Diagnostics, University and Hospital Trust of Verona, Verona 37134, Italy
| | - Roberto Salvia
- General and Pancreatic Surgery, Pancreas Institute, University and Hospital Trust of Verona, Verona 37134, Italy
| | - Giuseppe Zamboni
- Department of Pathology, Ospedale Sacro Cuore-Don Calabria, Negrar 37024, Italy
| | - Seung-Mo Hong
- Department of Pathology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul 05505, South Korea
| | - Dae Wook Hwang
- Hepatobiliary and Pancreas Surgery, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul 05505, South Korea
| | - Jin-Young Jang
- Department of Surgery and Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul 03080, South Korea
| | - Wooil Kwon
- Department of Surgery and Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul 03080, South Korea
| | - Niall Swan
- Department of Histopathology, St. Vincent's University Hospital, Dublin D04 T6F4, Ireland
| | - Justin Geoghegan
- Department of Surgery, St. Vincent's University Hospital, Dublin D04 T6F4, Ireland
| | - Massimo Falconi
- Division of Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan 20132, Italy
| | - Stefano Crippa
- Division of Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan 20132, Italy
| | - Claudio Doglioni
- Department of Pathology, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan 20132, Italy
| | - Jorge Paulino
- Department of Surgery, Centro Hepatobiliopancreático e Transplantação, Hospital Curry Cabral, Lisbon 1050-099, Portugal
| | | | - Barish H Edil
- Department of Surgery, University of Colorado, Aurora, CO 80045, USA
| | - Walter Park
- Department of Medicine, Stanford University Medical Center, Palo Alto, CA 94304, USA
| | - Shinichi Yachida
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Pathology and Cancer Genomics, National Cancer Center Hospital and National Cancer Center Research Institute, Tokyo 104-0045, Japan
| | - Susumu Hijioka
- Department of Gastroenterology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya 464-8681, Japan
| | - Jeanin van Hooft
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam Medical Center, Amsterdam 1017 ZX, Netherlands
| | - Jin He
- Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Matthew J Weiss
- Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Richard Burkhart
- Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Martin Makary
- Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Marcia I Canto
- Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Michael G Goggins
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Janine Ptak
- Ludwig Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute at the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Lisa Dobbyn
- Ludwig Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute at the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Joy Schaefer
- Ludwig Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute at the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Natalie Sillman
- Ludwig Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute at the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Maria Popoli
- Ludwig Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute at the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Alison P Klein
- Ludwig Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute at the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Cristian Tomasetti
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA.
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Rachel Karchin
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA.
| | - Nickolas Papadopoulos
- Ludwig Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute at the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Kenneth W Kinzler
- Ludwig Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute at the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Bert Vogelstein
- Ludwig Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute at the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA.
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Christopher L Wolfgang
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA.
- Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Ralph H Hruban
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Ludwig Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute at the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA.
| | - Anne Marie Lennon
- Ludwig Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute at the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA.
- Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
- Department of Radiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
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