Development and internal validation of a prognostic model for mortality of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms treated with endovascular aneurysm repair

Editor's Choice - External Validation of a Prognostic Model for Survival of Patients With Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms Treated by Endovascular Aneurysm Repair

OBJECTIVE

Current guidelines recommend diameter monitoring of small and asymptomatic abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) due to the low risk of rupture. Elective AAA repair is recommended for diameters ≥ 5.5 cm in men and ≥ 5.0 cm in women. However, data supporting the efficacy of elective treatment for all patients above these thresholds are diverging. For a subgroup of patients, life expectancy might be very short, and elective AAA repair at the current threshold may not be justified. This study aimed to externally validate a predictive model for survival of patients with an asymptomatic AAA treated by endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR).

METHODS

This was a multicentre international retrospective observational cohort study. Data were collected from four European aortic centres treating patients between 2001 and 2021. The initial model included age, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) as independent predictors for survival. Model performance was measured by discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

The validation cohort included 1 500 patients with a median follow up of 65 months, during which 54.6% of the patients died. The external validation showed slightly decreased discrimination ability and signs of overfitting in model calibration. However, a high risk subgroup of patients with impaired survival rates was identified: octogenarians with eGFR < 60 OR COPD, septuagenarians with eGFR < 30, and septuagenarians with eGFR < 60 and COPD having survival rates of only 55.2% and 15.5% at five and 10 years, respectively.

CONCLUSION

EVAR is a valuable treatment option for AAA, especially for patients unsuitable for open repair. Nonetheless, not all these patients will benefit from EVAR, and an individualised treatment recommendation should include considerations on life expectancy. This study provides a risk stratification to identify patients who may not benefit from EVAR using the present diameter thresholds.

Prognostic model for survival of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms treated with endovascular aneurysm repair

The role of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) in patients with asymptomatic abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) who are unfit for open surgical repair has been questioned. The impending risk of aneurysm rupture, the risk of elective repair, and the life expectancy must be balanced when considering elective AAA repair. This retrospective observational cohort study included all consecutive patients treated with standard EVAR for AAA at a referral centre between 2001 and 2020. A previously published predictive model for survival after EVAR in patients treated between 2001 and 2012 was temporally validated using patients treated at the same institution between 2013 and 2020 and updated using the overall cohort. 558 patients (91.2% males, mean age 74.9 years) were included. Older age, lower eGFR, and COPD were independent predictors for impaired survival. A risk score showed good discrimination between four risk groups (Harrel's C = 0.70). The 5-years survival probabilities were only 40% in "high-risk" patients, 68% in "moderate-to-high-risk" patients, 83% in "low-to-moderate-risk", and 89% in "low-risk" patients. Low-risk patients with a favourable life expectancy are likely to benefit from EVAR, while high-risk patients with a short life expectancy may not benefit from EVAR at the current diameter threshold.