Smyth TJ, Allen I, Atkinson A, Bruun JT, Harmer RA, Pingree RD, Widdicombe CE, Somerfield PJ. Ocean net heat flux influences seasonal to interannual patterns of plankton abundance.
PLoS One 2014;
9:e98709. [PMID:
24918906 PMCID:
PMC4053316 DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0098709]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2014] [Accepted: 05/02/2014] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Changes in the net heat flux (NHF) into the ocean have profound impacts on global climate. We analyse a long-term plankton time-series and show that the NHF is a critical indicator of ecosystem dynamics. We show that phytoplankton abundance and diversity patterns are tightly bounded by the switches between negative and positive NHF over an annual cycle. Zooplankton increase before the transition to positive NHF in the spring but are constrained by the negative NHF switch in autumn. By contrast bacterial diversity is decoupled from either NHF switch, but is inversely correlated (r = −0.920) with the magnitude of the NHF. We show that the NHF is a robust mechanistic tool for predicting climate change indicators such as spring phytoplankton bloom timing and length of the growing season.
Collapse