A new ensemble-based targeted observational method and its application in the TPOS 2020

Ensemble Kalman filter-based targeted observation is one of the best methods for determining the optimal observational array for oceanic buoy deployment. This study proposes a new algorithm suitable for a 'cross-region and cross-variable' approach by introducing a projection operator into the optimization process. A targeted observational analysis was conducted for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the tropical western Pacific for the Tropical Pacific Observation System (TPOS) 2020. The prediction target was at the Niño 3.4 region and the first 10 optimal observational sites detected reduced initial uncertainties by 70%, with the best observational array located where the Rossby wave signal dominates. At the vertical level, the most significant contribution was derived from observations near the thermocline. This study provides insights into understanding ENSO-related variability and offers a practical approach to designing an optimal mooring array. It serves as a scientific guidance for designing a TPOS observation network.

Understanding the El Niño Southern Oscillation Effect on Cut-Off Lows as Simulated in Forced SST and Fully Coupled Experiments

In this study, we show that changes in the 250 hPa vorticity cut-off low (COL) activity may possibly be driven by sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Pacific. Using ERA5 reanalysis, the existence of different large-scale circulation patterns is identified that work to enhance the COL activity with a weakened jet stream, while COLs are suppressed with strengthened westerlies. The present-day simulations of AMIP-CMIP6 models reproduce realistic features of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–COL teleconnection, but biases exist, especially in coupled models. The differences are a priori due to the inability of the models to accurately predict the time-mean zonal flow, which may be in part due to systematic biases in the predicted SST. The underestimation of warm SST anomalies over the eastern Pacific is a common problem in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models and remains a major uncertainty in CMIP6. We find that a reduced bias in the predicted SST by coupled models is most likely to produce more skillful simulations in the Southern Hemisphere, but the same evidence does not hold for the Northern Hemisphere. The study suggests the potential for seasonal prediction of COLs and the benefits that would result using accurate initialization and consistent model coupling.

Historic Yangtze flooding of 2020 tied to extreme Indian Ocean conditions

Summer rainfall along the Yangtze River in 2020 was the heaviest since 1961, with devastating socioeconomic impacts. While official forecasts based on tropical Pacific state failed, we show that dynamic models, when initialized with ocean observations globally, succeed in predicting the extreme rainfall. Slowly propagating oceanic Rossby waves in the South Indian Ocean are the source of predictability, which are in turn tied to the record-breaking Indian Ocean Dipole in late 2019. The identification of antecedent subsurface conditions of the Indian Ocean as a key predictor represents an important conceptual advance in Asian summer monsoon dynamics, helping improve disaster preparation that saves lives and properties.

Heavy monsoon rainfall ravaged a large swath of East Asia in summer 2020. Severe flooding of the Yangtze River displaced millions of residents in the midst of a historic public health crisis. This extreme rainy season was not anticipated from El Niño conditions. Using observations and model experiments, we show that the record strong Indian Ocean Dipole event in 2019 is an important contributor to the extreme Yangtze flooding of 2020. This Indian Ocean mode and a weak El Niño in the Pacific excite downwelling oceanic Rossby waves that propagate slowly westward south of the equator. At a mooring in the Southwest Indian Ocean, the thermocline deepens by a record 70 m in late 2019. The deepened thermocline helps sustain the Indian Ocean warming through the 2020 summer. The Indian Ocean warming forces an anomalous anticyclone in the lower troposphere over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region and intensifies the upper-level westerly jet over East Asia, leading to heavy summer rainfall in the Yangtze Basin. These coupled ocean-atmosphere processes beyond the equatorial Pacific provide predictability. Indeed, dynamic models initialized with observed ocean state predicted the heavy summer rainfall in the Yangtze Basin as early as April 2020.

Tropical cyclones act to intensify El Niño

Tropical cyclones (TCs), some of the most influential weather events across the globe, are modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, little is known about the feedback of TCs on ENSO. Here, observational and modelling evidence shows that TC activity in the southeastern western North Pacific can affect the Niño-3.4 index 3 months later. Increased TC activity in July–September can significantly contribute to the intensity of ENSO in October–December by weakening the Walker circulation and enhancing eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin waves in the tropical Pacific. Thus, the greater the accumulated cyclone energy, the stronger (weaker) the El Niño (La Niña). A new physics-based empirical model for ENSO is constructed that significantly outperforms current models in predicting ENSO intensity from July to December and addressing the problem about the target period slippage of ENSO. Results suggest that TCs may provide significant cross-scale feedback to ENSO.

While it is known that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences tropical cyclones, but little is known about a reverse effect. Here, data and model output shows that tropical cyclones can affect ENSO with a lead of 3 months, especially contributing to a significantly more intense El Niño in the winter months.

Contrasting Impacts of ENSO on the Interannual Variations of Summer Runoff between the Upper and Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

The Yangtze River Basin is an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-sensitive region, prone to floods and droughts. Hydrological records were collected to examine the temporal and spatial distribution of runoff in this drainage basin. An apparent difference in runoff variations between the upper and mid-lower Yangtze reaches was detected in response to ENSO. The upper basin usually experiences floods or droughts during the summer of ENSO developing years, while the mid-lower runoff variations tend to coincide with ENSO decaying phases. Composite analysis is employed to investigate the underlying mechanism for the teleconnection between the specific phases of the ENSO cycle and Yangtze runoff variation. Results show that the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) exhibits large variability on its western side in summer with different ENSO phases, thus resulting in a contrasting influence between the upper and mid-lower Yangtze floods and droughts. During the central Pacific-La Niña developing summers, the WPSH is significantly enhanced with its westward extension over the Yangtze upper basin. Anomalous water vapor converges in its northwest edge thus favoring upper-basin flooding. Meanwhile, the mid-lower reaches are controlled by the WPSH, and the local rainfall is not obvious. In addition, when the El Niño decaying phases occur, the WPSH denotes a westward extending trend and the position of its ridge line shifts to the mid-lower Yangtze reaches. The southwest moisture cannot extend to the upper basin but converges in the mid-lower basin. Accompanied by the anomalous 100 hPa South Asia High and lower-tropospheric Philippines anticyclone movements, this upper–middle–lower configuration acts as a key bridge linking ENSO and Yangtze floods and droughts.

A review of ENSO theories

The El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurrence can be usually explained by two views of (i) a self-sustained oscillatory mode and (ii) a stable mode interacting with high-frequency forcing such as westerly wind bursts and Madden-Julian Oscillation events. The positive ocean–atmosphere feedback in the tropical Pacific hypothesized by Bjerknes leads the ENSO event to a mature phase. After ENSO event matures, negative feedbacks are needed to cease the ENSO anomaly growth. Four negative feedbacks have been proposed: (i) reflected Kelvin waves at the ocean western boundary, (ii) a discharge process due to Sverdrup transport, (iii) western-Pacific wind-forced Kelvin waves and (iv) anomalous zonal advections and wave reflection at the ocean eastern boundary. These four ENSO mechanisms are respectively called the delayed oscillator, the recharge–discharge oscillator, the western-Pacific oscillator and the advective–reflective oscillator. The unified oscillator is developed by including all ENSO mechanisms, i.e. all four ENSO oscillators are special cases of the unified oscillator. The tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere interaction can also induce coupled slow westward- and eastward-propagating modes. An advantage of the coupled slow modes is that they can be used to explain the propagating property of interannual anomalies, whereas the oscillatory modes produce a standing oscillation. The research community has recently paid attention to different types of ENSO events by focusing on the central-Pacific El Niño. All of the ENSO mechanisms may work for the central-Pacific El Niño events, with an addition that the central-Pacific El Niño may be related to forcing or processes in the extra-tropical Pacific.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation and its impact in the changing climate

Extensive research has improved our understanding and forecast of the occurrence, evolution and global impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, ENSO changes as the global climate warms up and it exhibits different characteristics and climate impacts in the twenty-first century from the twentieth century. Climate models project that ENSO will also change in the warming future and have not reached an agreement about the flavor, as to the intensity and the frequency, of future ENSO conditions. This article presents the conventional view of ENSO properties, dynamics and teleconnections, and reviews the emerging understanding of the diversity and associated climate impacts of ENSO. It also reviews the results from investigations into the possible changes in ENSO under the future global-warming scenarios.

Climate models with delay differential equations

A fundamental challenge in mathematical modelling is to find a model that embodies the essential underlying physics of a system, while at the same time being simple enough to allow for mathematical analysis. Delay differential equations (DDEs) can often assist in this goal because, in some cases, only the delayed effects of complex processes need to be described and not the processes themselves. This is true for some climate systems, whose dynamics are driven in part by delayed feedback loops associated with transport times of mass or energy from one location of the globe to another. The infinite-dimensional nature of DDEs allows them to be sufficiently complex to reproduce realistic dynamics accurately with a small number of variables and parameters. In this paper, we review how DDEs have been used to model climate systems at a conceptual level. Most studies of DDE climate models have focused on gaining insights into either the global energy balance or the fundamental workings of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system. For example, studies of DDEs have led to proposed mechanisms for the interannual oscillations in sea-surface temperature that is characteristic of ENSO, the irregular behaviour that makes ENSO difficult to forecast and the tendency of El Niño events to occur near Christmas. We also discuss the tools used to analyse such DDE models. In particular, the recent development of continuation software for DDEs makes it possible to explore large regions of parameter space in an efficient manner in order to provide a "global picture" of the possible dynamics. We also point out some directions for future research, including the incorporation of non-constant delays, which we believe could improve the descriptive power of DDE climate models.

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

Development of a GNSS Buoy for Monitoring Water Surface Elevations in Estuaries and Coastal Areas

In this work, a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) buoy that utilizes a Virtual Base Station (VBS) combined with the Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning technology was developed to monitor water surface elevations in estuaries and coastal areas. The GNSS buoy includes a buoy hull, a RTK GNSS receiver, data-transmission devices, a data logger, and General Purpose Radio Service (GPRS) modems for transmitting data to the desired land locations. Laboratory and field tests were conducted to test the capability of the buoy and verify the accuracy of the monitored water surface elevations. For the field tests, the GNSS buoy was deployed in the waters of Suao (northeastern part of Taiwan). Tide data obtained from the GNSS buoy were consistent with those obtained from the neighboring tide station. Significant wave heights, zero-crossing periods, and peak wave directions obtained from the GNSS buoy were generally consistent with those obtained from an accelerometer-tilt-compass (ATC) sensor. The field tests demonstrate that the developed GNSS buoy can be used to obtain accurate real-time tide and wave data in estuaries and coastal areas.

Covariability of western tropical Pacific-North Pacific atmospheric circulation during summer

North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) is permanent high-pressure system over the Northern Pacific Ocean and it extends to the western North Pacific during the boreal summer (June-July-August), which is so called the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). Here, we examine the covariability of the NPSH-WNPSH during summer using both observation and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) model data. The statistical analyses indicate that the NPSH-WNPSH covariability shows significant decadal variability in the observations, in addition, the in-phase relationship of NPSH-WNPSH is enhanced after the mid-to-late 1990s. A dipole-like sea surface temperature (SST) pattern, i.e., a warming in the western Pacific and a cooling in the eastern Pacific, is dominant after the mid-to-late 1990s, which acts to enhance the covariability of NPSH-WNPSH by modulating the atmospheric teleconnections. However, the covariability of NPSH-WNPSH in the future climate is not much influenced by the anthropogenic forcing but it is largely characterized by the natural decadal-to-interdecadal variability, implying that the enhancement of NPSH-WNPSH covariability after the mid-to-late 1990s could be considered as part of decadal-to-interdecadal variability.