Innovative Box-Wing Aircraft: Emissions and Climate Change

The PARSIFAL project (Prandtlplane ARchitecture for the Sustainable Improvement of Future AirpLanes) aims to promote an innovative box-wing aircraft: the PrandtlPlane. Aircraft developed adopting this configuration are expected to achieve a payload capability higher than common single aisle analogues (e.g., Airbus 320 and Boeing 737 families), without any increase in the overall dimensions. We estimated the exhaust emissions from the PrandtlPlane and compared the corresponding impacts to those of a conventional reference aircraft, in terms of Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature Potential (GTP), on two time-horizons and accounted for regional sensitivity. We considered carbon dioxide, carbonaceous and sulphate aerosols, nitrogen oxides and related ozone production, methane degradation and nitrate aerosols formation, contrails, and contrail cirrus. Overall, the introduction of the PrandtlPlane is expected to bring a considerable reduction of climate change in all the source regions considered, on both the time-horizons examined. Moreover, fuel consumption is expected to be reduced by 20%, as confirmed through high-fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations. Sensitivity of data, models, and metrics are detailed. Impact reduction and mitigation strategies are discussed, as well as the gaps to be addressed in order to develop a comprehensive Life Cycle Assessment on aircraft emissions.

Impacts of the large increase in international ship traffic 2000-2007 on tropospheric ozone and methane

The increase in civil world fleet ship emissions during the period 2000-2007 and the effects on key tropospheric oxidants are quantified using a global Chemical Transport Model (CTM). We estimate a substantial increase of 33% in global ship emissions over this period. The impact of ship emissions on tropospheric oxidants is mainly caused by the relatively large fraction of NOx in ship exhaust. Typical increases in yearly average surface ozone concentrations in the most impacted areas are 0.5-2.5 ppbv. The global annual mean radiative forcing due to ozone increases in the troposphere is 10 mWm(-2) over the period 2000-2007. We find global average tropospheric OH increase of 1.03% over the same period. As a result of this the global average tropospheric methane concentration is reduced by approximately 2.2% over a period corresponding to the turnover time. The resulting methane radiative forcing is -14 mWm(-2) with an additional contribution of -6 mWm(-2) from methane induced reduction in ozone. The net forcing of the ozone and methane changes due to ship emissions changes between 2000 and 2007 is -10 mWm(-2). This is significant compared to the net forcing of these components in 2000. Our findings support earlier observational studies indicating that ship traffic may be a major contributor to recent enhancement of background ozone at some coastal stations. Furthermore, by reducing global mean tropospheric methane by 40 ppbv over its turnover time it is likely to contribute to the recent observed leveling off in global mean methane concentration.

Climate forcing from the transport sectors

Although the transport sector is responsible for a large and growing share of global emissions affecting climate, its overall contribution has not been quantified. We provide a comprehensive analysis of radiative forcing from the road transport, shipping, aviation, and rail subsectors, using both past- and forward-looking perspectives. We find that, since preindustrial times, transport has contributed approximately 15% and 31% of the total man-made CO2 and O3 forcing, respectively. A forward-looking perspective shows that the current emissions from transport are responsible for approximately 16% of the integrated net forcing over 100 years from all current man-made emissions. The dominating contributor to positive forcing (warming) is CO2, followed by tropospheric O3. By subsector, road transport is the largest contributor to warming. The transport sector also exerts cooling through reduced methane lifetime and atmospheric aerosol effects. Shipping causes net cooling, except on future time scales of several centuries. Much of the forcing from transport comes from emissions not covered by the Kyoto Protocol.