Role of Emissivity in Lava Flow ‘Distance-to-Run’ Estimates from Satellite-Based Volcano Monitoring

Remote sensing is an established technological solution for bridging critical gaps in volcanic hazard assessment and risk mitigation. The enormous amount of remote sensing data available today at a range of temporal and spatial resolutions can aid emergency management in volcanic crises by detecting and measuring high-temperature thermal anomalies and providing lava flow propagation forecasts. In such thermal estimates, an important role is played by emissivity—the efficiency with which a surface radiates its thermal energy at various wavelengths. Emissivity has a close relationship with land surface temperatures and radiant fluxes, and it impacts directly on the prediction of lava flow behavior, as mass flux estimates depend on measured radiant fluxes. Since emissivity is seldom measured and mostly assumed, we aimed to fill this gap in knowledge by carrying out a multi-stage experiment, combining laboratory-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) analyses, remote sensing data, and numerical modeling. We tested the capacity for reproducing emissivity from spaceborne observations using ASTER Global Emissivity Database (GED) while assessing the spatial heterogeneity of emissivity. Our laboratory-satellite emissivity values were used to establish a realistic land surface temperature from a high-resolution spaceborne payload (ETM+) to obtain an instant temperature–radiant flux and eruption rate results for the 2001 Mount Etna (Italy) eruption. Forward-modeling tests conducted on the 2001 ‘aa’ lava flow by means of the MAGFLOW Cellular Automata code produced differences of up to ~600 m in the simulated lava flow ‘distance-to-run’ for a range of emissivity values. Given the density and proximity of urban settlements on and around Mount Etna, these results may have significant implications for civil protection and urban planning applications.

Evidence from the Mars Express High Resolution Stereo Camera for a frozen sea close to Mars' equator

It is thought that the Cerberus Fossae fissures on Mars were the source of both lava and water floods two to ten million years ago. Evidence for the resulting lava plains has been identified in eastern Elysium, but seas and lakes from these fissures and previous water flooding events were presumed to have evaporated and sublimed away. Here we present High Resolution Stereo Camera images from the European Space Agency Mars Express spacecraft that indicate that such lakes may still exist. We infer that the evidence is consistent with a frozen body of water, with surface pack-ice, around 5 degrees north latitude and 150 degrees east longitude in southern Elysium. The frozen lake measures about 800 x 900 km in lateral extent and may be up to 45 metres deep--similar in size and depth to the North Sea. From crater counts, we determined its age to be 5 +/- 2 million years old. If our interpretation is confirmed, this is a place that might preserve evidence of primitive life, if it has ever developed on Mars.