Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE

The ReNovRisk-Cyclone program aimed at developing an observation network in the south-west Indian ocean (SWIO) in close synergy with the implementation of numerical tools to model and analyze the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) in the present and in a context of climate change. This paper addresses the modeling part of the program. First, a unique coupled system to simulate TCs in the SWIO is developed. The ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling is considered along with a coherent coupling between sea surface state, wind field, aerosol, microphysics, and radiation. This coupled system is illustrated through several simulations of TCs: the impact of air–sea flux parameterizations on the evolution of TC Fantala is examined, the full coupling developed during the program is illustrated on TC Idai, and the potential of novel observations like space-borne synthetic aperture radar and sea turtles to validate the atmosphere and ocean models is presented with TC Herold. Secondly, the evolution of cyclonic activity in the SWIO during the second half of the 21st century is assessed. It was addressed both using climate simulation and through the implementation of a pseudo global warming method in the high-resolution coupled modeling platform. Our results suggest that the Mascarene Archipelago should experience an increase of TC related hazards in the medium term.

Atmospheric Dynamics from Synoptic to Local Scale During an Intense Frontal Dust Storm over the Sistan Basin in Winter 2019

The Sistan Basin has been recognized as one of the most active dust sources and windiest desert environments in the world. Although the dust activity in Sistan maximizes during the summer, rare but intense dust storms may also occur in the winter. This study aims to elucidate the atmospheric dynamics related to dust emission and transport, dust-plume characteristics, and impacts on aerosol properties and air quality during an intense dust storm over Sistan in February 2019. The dust storm was initiated by strong northerly winds (~20 ms−1) associated with the intrusion of a cold front from high latitudes. The upper-level potential vorticity (PV)-trough evolved into a cut-off low in the mid and upper troposphere and initiated unstable weather over Afghanistan and northern Pakistan. At the surface, density currents emanating from deep convective clouds and further strengthened by downslope winds from the mountains, caused massive soil erosion. The passage of the cold front reduced the temperature by ~10 °C and increased the atmospheric pressure by ~10 hPa, while the visibility was limited to less than 200 m. The rough topography played a major role in modulating the atmospheric dynamics, wind field, dust emissions, and transport pathways. Meso-NH model simulates large amounts of columnar mass dust loading (> 20 g m−2) over Sistan, while the intense dust plume was mainly traveling below 2 km and increased the particulate matter (PM10) concentrations up to 1800 µg m−3 at Zabol. The dust storm was initially moving in an arc-shaped pathway over the Sistan Basin and then it spread away. Plumes of dust covered a large area in southwest Asia, reaching the northern Arabian Sea, and the Thar desert one to two days later, while they strongly affected the aerosol properties at Karachi, Pakistan, by increasing the aerosol optical depth (AOD > 1.2) and the coarse-mode fraction at ~0.7.