Evaluation of Regional Air Quality Models over Sydney and Australia: Part 1—Meteorological Model Comparison

The ability of meteorological models to accurately characterise regional meteorology plays a crucial role in the performance of photochemical simulations of air pollution. As part of the research funded by the Australian government’s Department of the Environment Clean Air and Urban Landscape hub, this study set out to complete an intercomparison of air quality models over the Sydney region. This intercomparison would test existing modelling capabilities, identify any problems and provide the necessary validation of models in the region. The first component of the intercomparison study was to assess the ability of the models to reproduce meteorological observations, since it is a significant driver of air quality. To evaluate the meteorological component of these air quality modelling systems, seven different simulations based on varying configurations of inputs, integrations and physical parameterizations of two meteorological models (the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM)) were examined. The modelling was conducted for three periods coinciding with comprehensive air quality measurement campaigns (the Sydney Particle Studies (SPS) 1 and 2 and the Measurement of Urban, Marine and Biogenic Air (MUMBA)). The analysis focuses on meteorological variables (temperature, mixing ratio of water, wind (via wind speed and zonal wind components), precipitation and planetary boundary layer height), that are relevant to air quality. The surface meteorology simulations were evaluated against observations from seven Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Automatic Weather Stations through composite diurnal plots, Taylor plots and paired mean bias plots. Simulated vertical profiles of temperature, mixing ratio of water and wind (via wind speed and zonal wind components) were assessed through comparison with radiosonde data from the Sydney Airport BoM site. The statistical comparisons with observations identified systematic overestimations of wind speeds that were more pronounced overnight. The temperature was well simulated, with biases generally between ±2 °C and the largest biases seen overnight (up to 4 °C). The models tend to have a drier lower atmosphere than observed, implying that better representations of soil moisture and surface moisture fluxes would improve the subsequent air quality simulations. On average the models captured local-scale meteorological features, like the sea breeze, which is a critical feature driving ozone formation in the Sydney Basin. The overall performance and model biases were generally within the recommended benchmark values (e.g., ±1 °C mean bias in temperature, ±1 g/kg mean bias of water vapour mixing ratio and ±1.5 m s−1 mean bias of wind speed) except at either end of the scale, where the bias tends to be larger. The model biases reported here are similar to those seen in other model intercomparisons.

Simulating the meteorology and PM10 concentrations in Arizona dust storms using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (Wrf-Chem)

Nine dust storms in south-central Arizona were simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) at 2 km resolution. The windblown dust emission algorithm was the Air Force Weather Agency model. In comparison with ground-based PM₁₀ observations, the model unevenly reproduces the dust-storm events. The model adequately estimates the location and timing of the events, but it is unable to precisely replicate the magnitude and timing of the elevated hourly concentrations of particles 10 µm and smaller ([PM₁₀]).Furthermore, the model underestimated [PM₁₀] in highly agricultural Pinal County because it underestimated surface wind speeds and because the model's erodible fractions of the land surface data were too coarse to effectively resolve the active and abandoned agricultural lands. In contrast, the model overestimated [PM₁₀] in western Arizona along the Colorado River because it generated daytime sea breezes (from the nearby Gulf of California) for which the surface-layer speeds were too strong. In Phoenix, AZ, the model's performance depended on the event, with both under- and overestimations partly due to incorrect representation of urban features. Sensitivity tests indicate that [PM₁₀] highly relies on meteorological forcing. Increasing the fraction of erodible surfaces in the Pinal County agricultural areas improved the simulation of [PM₁₀] in that region. Both 24-hr and 1-hr measured [PM₁₀] were, for the most part, and especially in Pinal County, extremely elevated, with the former exceeding the health standard by as much as 10-fold and the latter exceeding health-based guidelines by as much as 70-fold. Monsoonal thunderstorms not only produce elevated [PM₁₀], but also cause urban flash floods and disrupt water resource deliveries. Given the severity and frequency of these dust storms, and conceding that the modeling system applied in this work did not produce the desired agreement between simulations and observations, additional research in both the windblown dust emissions model and the weather research/physicochemical model is called for.

IMPLICATIONS

While many dust storms can be considered to be natural, in semi-arid climates such storms often have an anthropogenic component in their sources of dust. Applying the natural, exceptional events policy to these storms with strong signatures of anthropogenic sources would appear not only to be misguided but also to stifle genuine regulatory efforts at remediation. Those dust storms that have resulted, in part, from passage over abandoned farm land should no longer be considered "natural"; policymakers and lawmakers need to compel the owners of such land to reduce its potential for windblown dust.

Impact of the Loess Plateau on the atmospheric boundary layer structure and air quality in the North China Plain: a case study

The North China Plain (NCP), to the east of the Loess Plateau, experiences severe regional air pollution. During the daytime in the summer, the Loess Plateau acts as an elevated heat source. The impacts of such a thermal effect on meteorological phenomena (e.g., waves, precipitation) in this region have been discussed. However, its impacts on the atmospheric boundary layer structure and air quality have not been reported. It is hypothesized that the thermal effect of the Plateau likely modulates the boundary layer structure and ambient concentrations of pollutants over the NCP under certain meteorological conditions. Thus, this study investigates such effect and its impacts using measurements and three-dimensional model simulations. It is found that in the presence of daytime westerly wind in the lower troposphere (~1 km above the NCP), warmer air above the Loess Plateau was transported over the NCP and imposed a thermal inversion above the mixed boundary layer, which acted as a lid and suppressed the mixed layer growth. As a result, pollutants accumulated in the shallow mixed layer and ozone was efficiently produced. The downward branch of the thermally-induced Mountain-Plains Solenoid circulation over the NCP contributed to enhancing the capping inversion and exacerbating air pollution. Previous studies have reported that low mixed layer, a factor for elevated pollution in the NCP, may be caused by aerosol scattering and absorption of solar radiation, frontal inversion, and large scale subsidence. The present study revealed a different mechanism (i.e., westerly warm advection) for the suppression of the mixed layer in summer NCP, which caused severe O3 pollution. This study has important implications for understanding the essential meteorological factors for pollution episodes in this region and forecasting these severe events.

Reforestation as a novel abatement and compliance measure for ground-level ozone

High ambient ozone (O3) concentrations are a widespread and persistent problem globally. Although studies have documented the role of forests in removing O3 and one of its precursors, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), the cost effectiveness of using peri-urban reforestation for O3 abatement purposes has not been examined. We develop a methodology that uses available air quality and meteorological data and simplified forest structure growth-mortality and dry deposition models to assess the performance of reforestation for O3 precursor abatement. We apply this methodology to identify the cost-effective design for a hypothetical 405-ha, peri-urban reforestation project in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria O3 nonattainment area in Texas. The project would remove an estimated 310 tons of (t) O3 and 58 t NO2 total over 30 y. Given its location in a nitrogen oxide (NOx)-limited area, and using the range of Houston area O3 production efficiencies to convert forest O3 removal to its NOx equivalent, this is equivalent to 127-209 t of the regulated NOx. The cost of reforestation per ton of NOx abated compares favorably to that of additional conventional controls if no land costs are incurred, especially if carbon offsets are generated. Purchasing agricultural lands for reforestation removes this cost advantage, but this problem could be overcome through cost-share opportunities that exist due to the public and conservation benefits of reforestation. Our findings suggest that peri-urban reforestation should be considered in O3 control efforts in Houston, other US nonattainment areas, and areas with O3 pollution problems in other countries, wherever O3 formation is predominantly NOx limited.

A multisensor evaluation of the asymmetric convective model, version 2, in southeast Texas

There currently exist a number of planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes that can represent the effects of turbulence in daytime convective conditions, although these schemes remain a large source of uncertainty in meteorology and air quality model simulations. This study evaluates a recently developed combined local and nonlocal closure PBL scheme, the Asymmetric Convective Model, version 2 (ACM2), against PBL observations taken from radar wind profilers, a ground-based lidar, and multiple daytime radiosonde balloon launches. These observations were compared against predictions of PBLs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.1 with the ACM2 PBL scheme option, and the Fifth-Generation Meteorological Model (MM5) version 3.7.3 with the Eta PBL scheme option that is currently being used to develop ozone control strategies in southeast Texas. MM5 and WRF predictions during the regulatory modeling episode were evaluated on their ability to predict the rise and fall of the PBL during daytime convective conditions across southeastern Texas. The MM5 predicted PBLs consistently underpredicted observations, and were also less than the WRF PBL predictions. The analysis reveals that the MM5 predicted a slower rising and shallower PBL not representative of the daytime urban boundary layer. Alternatively, the WRF model predicted a more accurate PBL evolution improving the root mean square error (RMSE), both temporally and spatially. The WRF model also more accurately predicted vertical profiles of temperature and moisture in the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere. Inspection of median surface temperature and moisture time-series plots revealed higher predicted surface temperatures in WRF and more surface moisture in MM5. These could not be attributed to surface heat fluxes, and thus the differences in performance of the WRF and MM5 models are likely due to the PBL schemes.

IMPLICATIONS

An accurate depiction of the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is necessary for realistic air quality simulations, and for formulating effective policy. The meteorological model used to support the southeast Texas 03 attainment demonstration made predictions of the PBL that were consistently less than those found in observations. The use of the Asymmetric Convective Model, version 2 (ACM2), predicted taller PBL heights and improved model predictions. A lower predicted PBL height in an air quality model would increase precursor concentrations and change the chemical production of O3 and possibly the response to control strategies.