Regional and Hemispheric Influences on Temporal Variability in Baseline Carbon Monoxide and Ozone over the Northeast US

Interannual variability in baseline carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3), defined as mixing ratios under minimal influence of recent and local emissions, was studied for seven rural sites in the Northeast US over 2001 - 2010. Annual baseline CO exhibited statistically significant decreasing trends (-4.3 - -2.3 ppbv yr-1), while baseline O3 did not display trends at any site. In examining the data by season, wintertime and springtime baseline CO at the two highest sites (1.5 km and 2 km asl) did not experience significant trends. Decadal increasing trends (~2.55 ppbv yr-1) were found in springtime and wintertime baseline O3 in southern New Hampshire, which was associated with anthropogenic NOx emission reductions from the urban corridor. Biomass burning emissions impacted summertime baseline CO with ~38% variability from wildfire emissions in Russia and ~22% from Canada at five sites and impacted baseline O3 at the two high elevation sites only with ~27% variability from wildfires in both Russia and Canada. The Arctic Oscillation was negatively correlated with summertime baseline O3, while the North Atlantic Oscillation was positively correlated with springtime baseline O3. This study suggested that anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, and meteorological conditions were important factors working together to determine baseline O3 and CO in the Northeast U.S. during the 2000s.

Climate variability modulates western US ozone air quality in spring via deep stratospheric intrusions

Evidence suggests deep stratospheric intrusions can elevate western US surface ozone to unhealthy levels during spring. These intrusions can be classified as 'exceptional events', which are not counted towards non-attainment determinations. Understanding the factors driving the year-to-year variability of these intrusions is thus relevant for effective implementation of the US ozone air quality standard. Here we use observations and model simulations to link these events to modes of climate variability. We show more frequent late spring stratospheric intrusions when the polar jet meanders towards the western United States, such as occurs following strong La Niña winters (Niño3.4<-1.0 °C). While El Niño leads to enhancements of upper tropospheric ozone, we find this influence does not reach surface air. Fewer and weaker intrusion events follow in the two springs after the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. The linkage between La Niña and western US stratospheric intrusions can be exploited to provide a few months of lead time during which preparations could be made to deploy targeted measurements aimed at identifying these exceptional events.

Can artificial neural networks be used to predict the origin of ozone episodes?

Tropospheric ozone is a secondary pollutant having a negative impact on health and environment. To control and minimize such impact the European Community established regulations to promote a clean air all over Europe. However, when an episode is related with natural mechanisms as Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchanges (STE), the benefits of an action plan to minimize precursor emissions are inefficient. Therefore, this work aims to develop a tool to identify the sources of ozone episodes in order to minimize misclassification and thus avoid the implementation of inappropriate air quality plans. For this purpose, an artificial neural network model - the Multilayer Perceptron - is used as a binary classifier of the source of an ozone episode. Long data series, between 2001 and 2010, considering the ozone precursors, (7)Be activity and meteorological conditions were used. With this model, 2-7% of a mean error was achieved, which is considered as a good generalization. Accuracy measures for imbalanced data are also discussed. The MCC values show a good performance of the model (0.65-0.92). Precision and F1-measure indicate that the model specifies a little better the rare class. Thus, the results demonstrate that such a tool can be used to help authorities in the management of ozone, namely when its thresholds are exceeded due natural causes, as the above mentioned STE. Therefore, the resources used to implement an action plan to minimize ozone precursors could be better managed avoiding the implementation of inappropriate measures.

Impact of wildfires on ozone exceptional events in the Western u.s

Wildfires generate substantial emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). As such, wildfires contribute to elevated ozone (O3) in the atmosphere. However, there is a large amount of variability in the emissions of O3 precursors and the amount of O3 produced between fires. There is also significant interannual variability as seen in median O3, organic carbon and satellite derived carbon monoxide mixing ratios in the western U.S. To better understand O3 produced from wildfires, we developed a statistical model that estimates the maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) O3 as a function of several meteorological and temporal variables for three urban areas in the western U.S.: Salt Lake City, UT; Boise, ID; and Reno, NV. The model is developed using data from June-September 2000-2012. For these three locations, the statistical model can explain 60, 52, and 27% of the variability in daily MDA8. The Statistical Model Residual (SMR) can give information on additional sources of O3 that are not explained by the usual meteorological pattern. Several possible O3 sources can explain high SMR values on any given day. We examine several cases with high SMR that are due to wildfire influence. The first case considered is for Reno in June 2008 when the MDA8 reached 82 ppbv. The wildfire influence for this episode is supported by PM concentrations, the known location of wildfires at the time and simulations with the Weather and Research Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) which indicates transport to Reno from large fires burning in California. The contribution to the MDA8 in Reno from the California wildfires is estimated to be 26 ppbv, based on the SMR, and 60 ppbv, based on WRF-Chem. The WRF-Chem model also indicates an important role for peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) in producing O3 during transport from the California wildfires. We hypothesize that enhancements in PAN due to wildfire emissions may lead to regional enhancements in O3 during high fire years. The second case is for the Salt Lake City (SLC) region for August 2012. During this period the MDA8 reached 83 ppbv and the SMR suggests a wildfire contribution of 19 ppbv to the MDA8. The wildfire influence is supported by PM2.5 data, the known location of wildfires at the time, HYSPLIT dispersion modeling that indicates transport from fires in Idaho, and results from the CMAQ model that confirm the fire impacts. Concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 are enhanced during this period, but overall there is a poor relationship between them, which is consistent with the complexities in the secondary production of O3. A third case looks at high MDA8 in Boise, ID, during July 2012 and reaches similar conclusions. These results support the use of statistical modeling as a tool to quantify the influence from wildfires on urban O3 concentrations.