Late Holocene droughts and cave ice harvesting by Ancestral Puebloans

Water availability for Native Americans in the southwestern United States during periods of prolonged droughts is poorly understood as regional hydroclimate records are scant or contradicting. Here, we show that radiocarbon-dated charcoal recovered from an ice deposit accumulated in Cave 29, western New Mexico, provide unambiguous evidence for five drought events that impacted the Ancestral Puebloan society between ~ AD 150 and 950. The presence of abundant charred material in this cave indicates that they periodically obtained drinking water by using fire to melt cave ice, and sheds light on one of many human-environment interactions in the Southwest in a context when climate change forced growing Ancestral Puebloan populations to exploit water resources in unexpected locations. The melting of cave ice under current climate conditions is both uncovering and threatening a fragile source of paleoenvironmental and archaeological evidence of human adaptations to a seemingly marginal environment.

Oceanic and radiative forcing of medieval megadroughts in the American Southwest

Multidecadal "megadroughts" were a notable feature of the climate of the American Southwest over the Common era, yet we still lack a comprehensive theory for what caused these megadroughts and why they curiously only occurred before about 1600 CE. Here, we use the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product, in conjunction with radiative forcing estimates, to demonstrate that megadroughts in the American Southwest were driven by unusually frequent and cold central tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) excursions in conjunction with anomalously warm Atlantic SSTs and a locally positive radiative forcing. This assessment of past megadroughts provides the first comprehensive theory for the causes of megadroughts and their clustering particularly during the Medieval era. This work also provides the first paleoclimatic support for the prediction that the risk of American Southwest megadroughts will markedly increase with global warming.

Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America

Multidecadal droughts that occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly represent an important target for validating the ability of climate models to adequately characterize drought risk over the near-term future. A prominent hypothesis is that these megadroughts were driven by a centuries-long radiatively forced shift in the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Here we use a novel combination of spatiotemporal tree-ring reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate to infer the atmosphere-ocean dynamics that coincide with megadroughts over the American West, and find that these features are consistently associated with ten-to-thirty year periods of frequent cold El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions and not a centuries-long shift in the mean of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results suggest an important role for internal variability in driving past megadroughts. State-of-the art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, however, do not simulate a consistent association between megadroughts and internal variability of the tropical Pacific Ocean, with implications for our confidence in megadrought risk projections.

Northeast US precipitation variability and North American climate teleconnections interpreted from late Holocene varved sediments

A more thorough understanding of regional to hemispheric hydroclimate variability and associated climate patterns is needed in order to validate climate models and project future conditions. In this study, two annually laminated (varved) sediment records spanning the last millennium were analyzed from Rhode Island and New York. Lamination thickness time series from the two locations are significantly correlated to hydroclimate indicators over the period of instrument overlap, demonstrating their usefulness in reconstructing past conditions. Both records are correlated to climate teleconnection indices, most strongly the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, suggesting regional to hemispheric influences on hydroclimate. Such a linkage is interpreted to be due to tropospheric circulation patterns in which positive PNA periods are associated with meridional circulation, leading to the dominance of southern moist air masses in the Northeast United States. Alternatively, the zonal flow over North America associated with negative PNA periods produces dominant dry continental air masses over the region. A composite record from the two locations reveals variability of hydroclimate and atmospheric circulation over the late Holocene and shows similarities to previously published reconstructions of the circumpolar vortex and of the Aleutian Low-pressure system, supporting the hypothesized PNA linkage. The record is correlated to continental-scale droughts, many of which have been reconstructed in the American Southwest. These results demonstrate the PNA's influence on hydroclimate over North America, and suggest that this teleconnected pattern may have a significant role in continental drought dynamics.

A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America

A key feature of anticipated 21st century droughts in Southwest North America is the concurrence of elevated temperatures and increased aridity. Instrumental records and paleoclimatic evidence for past prolonged drought in the Southwest that coincide with elevated temperatures can be assessed to provide insights on temperature-drought relations and to develop worst-case scenarios for the future. In particular, during the medieval period, ∼AD 900-1300, the Northern Hemisphere experienced temperatures warmer than all but the most recent decades. Paleoclimatic and model data indicate increased temperatures in western North America of approximately 1 °C over the long-term mean. This was a period of extensive and persistent aridity over western North America. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests drought in the mid-12th century far exceeded the severity, duration, and extent of subsequent droughts. The driest decade of this drought was anomalously warm, though not as warm as the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The convergence of prolonged warming and arid conditions suggests the mid-12th century may serve as a conservative analogue for severe droughts that might occur in the future. The severity, extent, and persistence of the 12th century drought that occurred under natural climate variability, have important implications for water resource management. The causes of past and future drought will not be identical but warm droughts, inferred from paleoclimatic records, demonstrate the plausibility of extensive, severe droughts, provide a long-term perspective on the ongoing drought conditions in the Southwest, and suggest the need for regional sustainability planning for the future.