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Rohling EJ, Yu J, Heslop D, Foster GL, Opdyke B, Roberts AP. Sea level and deep-sea temperature reconstructions suggest quasi-stable states and critical transitions over the past 40 million years. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2021; 7:7/26/eabf5326. [PMID: 34172440 PMCID: PMC8232915 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abf5326] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2020] [Accepted: 05/12/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Sea level and deep-sea temperature variations are key indicators of global climate changes. For continuous records over millions of years, deep-sea carbonate microfossil-based δ18O (δc) records are indispensable because they reflect changes in both deep-sea temperature and seawater δ18O (δw); the latter are related to ice volume and, thus, to sea level changes. Deep-sea temperature is usually resolved using elemental ratios in the same benthic microfossil shells used for δc, with linear scaling of residual δw to sea level changes. Uncertainties are large and the linear-scaling assumption remains untested. Here, we present a new process-based approach to assess relationships between changes in sea level, mean ice sheet δ18O, and both deep-sea δw and temperature and find distinct nonlinearity between sea level and δw changes. Application to δc records over the past 40 million years suggests that Earth's climate system has complex dynamical behavior, with threshold-like adjustments (critical transitions) that separate quasi-stable deep-sea temperature and ice-volume states.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eelco J Rohling
- Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
- School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK
| | - Jimin Yu
- Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
- Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao 266237, China
| | - David Heslop
- Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Gavin L Foster
- School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK
| | - Bradley Opdyke
- Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Andrew P Roberts
- Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
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Lenaerts JTM, Medley B, van den Broeke MR, Wouters B. Observing and Modeling Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance. REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS (WASHINGTON, D.C. : 1985) 2019; 57:376-420. [PMID: 31598609 PMCID: PMC6774314 DOI: 10.1029/2018rg000622] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2018] [Revised: 03/17/2019] [Accepted: 03/19/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Surface mass balance (SMB) provides mass input to the surface of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets and therefore comprises an important control on ice sheet mass balance and resulting contribution to global sea level change. As ice sheet SMB varies highly across multiple scales of space (meters to hundreds of kilometers) and time (hourly to decadal), it is notoriously challenging to observe and represent in models. In addition, SMB consists of multiple components, all of which depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere and the snow/ice surface, large-scale atmospheric circulation and ocean conditions, and ice sheet topography. In this review, we present the state-of-the-art knowledge and recent advances in ice sheet SMB observations and models, highlight current shortcomings, and propose future directions. Novel observational methods allow mapping SMB across larger areas, longer time periods, and/or at very high (subdaily) temporal frequency. As a recent observational breakthrough, cosmic ray counters provide direct estimates of SMB, circumventing the need for accurate snow density observations upon which many other techniques rely. Regional atmospheric climate models have drastically improved their simulation of ice sheet SMB in the last decade, thanks to the inclusion or improved representation of essential processes (e.g., clouds, blowing snow, and snow albedo), and by enhancing horizontal resolution (5-30 km). Future modeling efforts are required in improving Earth system models to match regional atmospheric climate model performance in simulating ice sheet SMB, and in reinforcing the efforts in developing statistical and dynamic downscaling to represent smaller-scale SMB processes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan T. M. Lenaerts
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderCOUSA
| | - Brooke Medley
- Cryospheric Sciences LaboratoryNASA GSFCGoddardMDUSA
| | | | - Bert Wouters
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric ResearchUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
- Faculty of Civil Engineering and GeosciencesDelft University of TechnologyDelftThe Netherlands
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Goelzer H, Nowicki S, Edwards T, Beckley M, Abe-Ouchi A, Aschwanden A, Calov R, Gagliardini O, Gillet-Chaulet F, Golledge NR, Gregory J, Greve R, Humbert A, Huybrechts P, Kennedy JH, Larour E, Lipscomb WH, clećh SL, Lee V, Morlighem M, Pattyn F, Payne AJ, Rodehacke C, Rückamp M, Saito F, Schlegel N, Seroussi H, Shepherd A, Sun S, van de Wal R, Ziemen FA. Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison. THE CRYOSPHERE 2019; 12:1433-1460. [PMID: 32676174 PMCID: PMC7365265 DOI: 10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g., those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of the initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of 1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and 2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly), and should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap, but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heiko Goelzer
- Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (IMAU), Utrecht, Netherlands
- Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | | | - Tamsin Edwards
- School of Environment, Earth & Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom
| | | | - Ayako Abe-Ouchi
- Atmosphere Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan
| | | | - Reinhard Calov
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Olivier Gagliardini
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, F-38000 Grenoble, France
| | | | - Nicholas R. Golledge
- Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Jonathan Gregory
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
- Met Office Hadley Center, Exeter, United Kingdom
| | - Ralf Greve
- Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Angelika Humbert
- Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
- University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
| | | | - Joseph H. Kennedy
- Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, USA
- Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, USA
| | - Eric Larour
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA
| | - William H. Lipscomb
- Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, USA
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
| | - Sébastien Le clećh
- LSCE/IPSL, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | | | | | - Frank Pattyn
- Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | | | - Christian Rodehacke
- Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
- Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Martin Rückamp
- Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - Fuyuki Saito
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Nicole Schlegel
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA
| | - Helene Seroussi
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA
| | - Andrew Shepherd
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Sainan Sun
- Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Roderik van de Wal
- Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (IMAU), Utrecht, Netherlands
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Ahlstrøm AP, Petersen D, Langen PL, Citterio M, Box JE. Abrupt shift in the observed runoff from the southwestern Greenland ice sheet. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2017; 3:e1701169. [PMID: 29242827 PMCID: PMC5729017 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1701169] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2017] [Accepted: 11/14/2017] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
The recent decades of accelerating mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet have arisen from an increase in both surface meltwater runoff and ice flow discharge from tidewater glaciers. Despite the role of the Greenland ice sheet as the dominant individual cryospheric contributor to sea level rise in recent decades, no observational record of its mass loss spans the 30-year period needed to assess its climatological state. We present for the first time a 40-year (1975-2014) time series of observed meltwater discharge from a >6500-km2 catchment of the southwestern Greenland ice sheet. We find that an abrupt 80% increase in runoff occurring between the 1976-2002 and 2003-2014 periods is due to a shift in atmospheric circulation, with meridional exchange events occurring more frequently over Greenland, establishing the first observation-based connection between ice sheet runoff and climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas P. Ahlstrøm
- Department of Glaciology and Climate, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Corresponding author. (D.P.); (A.P.A.)
| | - Dorthe Petersen
- Department of Hydrology, Climate and Environment, Asiaq Greenland Survey, Nuuk, Greenland
- Corresponding author. (D.P.); (A.P.A.)
| | | | - Michele Citterio
- Department of Glaciology and Climate, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Jason E. Box
- Department of Glaciology and Climate, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark
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5
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Characterization of Snow Facies on the Greenland Ice Sheet Observed by TanDEM-X Interferometric SAR Data. REMOTE SENSING 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/rs9040315] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Behrangi A, Christensen M, Richardson M, Lebsock M, Stephens G, Huffman GJ, Bolvin D, Adler RF, Gardner A, Lambrigtsen B, Fetzer E. Status of High latitude precipitation estimates from observations and reanalyses. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. ATMOSPHERES : JGR 2016; 121:4468-4486. [PMID: 30027024 PMCID: PMC6048444 DOI: 10.1002/2015jd024546] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
An intercomparison of high-latitude precipitation characteristics from observation-based and reanalysis products is performed. In particular the precipitation products from CloudSat provide an independent assessment to other widely used products, these being the observationally-based GPCP, GPCC and CMAP products and the ERA-Interim, MERRA and NCEP-DOE R2 reanalyses. Seasonal and annual total precipitation in both hemispheres poleward of 55° latitude is considered in all products, and CloudSat is used to assess intensity and frequency of precipitation occurrence by phase, defined as rain, snow or mixed phase. Furthermore, an independent estimate of snow accumulation during the cold season was calculated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). The intercomparison is performed for the 2007-2010 period when CloudSat was fully operational. It is found that ERA- Interim and MERRA are broadly similar, agreeing more closely with CloudSat over oceans. ERA-Interim also agrees well with CloudSat estimates of snowfall over Antarctica where total snowfall from GPCP and CloudSat is almost identical. A number of disagreements on regional or seasonal scales are identified: CMAP reports much lower ocean precipitation relative to other products, NCEP-DOE R2 reports much higher summer precipitation over northern hemisphere land, GPCP reports much higher snowfall over Eurasia, and CloudSat overestimates precipitation over Greenland, likely due to mischaracterization of rain and mixed-phase precipitation. These outliers are likely unrealistic for these specific regions and time periods. These estimates from observations and reanalyses provide useful insights for diagnostic assessment of precipitation products in high latitudes, quantifying the current uncertainties, improving the products, and establishing a benchmark for assessment of climate models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ali Behrangi
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
| | - Matthew Christensen
- Science and Technology Facilities Council, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot, UK Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Mark Richardson
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
| | - Matthew Lebsock
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
| | - Graeme Stephens
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
| | | | - David Bolvin
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Robert F. Adler
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - Alex Gardner
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
| | - Bjorn Lambrigtsen
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
| | - Eric Fetzer
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
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Frezzotti M, Orombelli G. Glaciers and ice sheets: current status and trends. RENDICONTI LINCEI 2013. [DOI: 10.1007/s12210-013-0255-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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Banwell AF, Arnold NS, Willis IC, Tedesco M, Ahlstrøm AP. Modeling supraglacial water routing and lake filling on the Greenland Ice Sheet. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2012jf002393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Hakuba MZ, Folini D, Wild M, Schär C. Impact of Greenland's topographic height on precipitation and snow accumulation in idealized simulations. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd017052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Lucas-Picher P, Wulff-Nielsen M, Christensen JH, Aðalgeirsdóttir G, Mottram R, Simonsen SB. Very high resolution regional climate model simulations over Greenland: Identifying added value. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd016267] [Citation(s) in RCA: 109] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Hanna E, Huybrechts P, Cappelen J, Steffen K, Bales RC, Burgess E, McConnell JR, Peder Steffensen J, Van den Broeke M, Wake L, Bigg G, Griffiths M, Savas D. Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance 1870 to 2010 based on Twentieth Century Reanalysis, and links with global climate forcing. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd016387] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Sjolte J, Hoffmann G, Johnsen SJ, Vinther BM, Masson-Delmotte V, Sturm C. Modeling the water isotopes in Greenland precipitation 1959–2001 with the meso-scale model REMO-iso. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd015287] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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13
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Observed Mass Balance of Mountain Glaciers and Greenland Ice Sheet in the 20th Century and the Present Trends. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-2063-3_15] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/07/2023]
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Burgess EW, Forster RR, Box JE, Mosley-Thompson E, Bromwich DH, Bales RC, Smith LC. A spatially calibrated model of annual accumulation rate on the Greenland Ice Sheet (1958-2007). ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jf001293] [Citation(s) in RCA: 109] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Evan W. Burgess
- Department of Geography; University of Utah; Salt Lake City Utah USA
| | | | - Jason E. Box
- Department of Geography; Ohio State University; Columbus Ohio USA
- Byrd Polar Research Center; Ohio State University; Columbus Ohio USA
| | - Ellen Mosley-Thompson
- Department of Geography; Ohio State University; Columbus Ohio USA
- Byrd Polar Research Center; Ohio State University; Columbus Ohio USA
| | - David H. Bromwich
- Department of Geography; Ohio State University; Columbus Ohio USA
- Byrd Polar Research Center; Ohio State University; Columbus Ohio USA
| | - Roger C. Bales
- Sierra Nevada Research Institute; University of California; Merced California USA
| | - Laurence C. Smith
- Department of Geography; University of California; Los Angeles California USA
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