Impact of Surface Albedo Assimilation on Snow Estimation

Surface albedo has a significant impact in determining the amount of available net radiation at the surface and the evolution of surface water and energy budget components. The snow accumulation and timing of melt, in particular, are directly impacted by the changes in land surface albedo. This study presents an evaluation of the impact of assimilating Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based surface albedo estimates in the Noah multi-parameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model, over the continental US during the time period from 2000 to 2017. The evaluation of simulated snow depth and snow cover fields show that significant improvements from data assimilation (DA) are obtained over the High Plains and parts of the Rocky Mountains. Earlier snowmelt and reduced agreements with reference snow depth measurements, primarily over the Northeast US, are also observed due to albedo DA. Most improvements from assimilation are observed over locations with moderate vegetation and lower elevation. The aggregate impact on evapotranspiration and runoff from assimilation is found to be marginal. This study also evaluates the relative and joint utility of assimilating fractional snow cover and surface albedo measurements. Relative to surface albedo assimilation, fractional snow cover assimilation is found to provide smaller improvements in the simulated snow depth fields. The configuration that jointly assimilates surface albedo and fractional snow cover measurements is found to provide the most beneficial improvements compared to the univariate DA configurations for surface albedo or fractional snow cover. Overall, the study also points to the need for improving the albedo formulations in land surface models and the incorporation of observational uncertainties within albedo DA configurations.

A quantitative method to decompose SWE differences between regional climate models and reanalysis datasets

The simulation of snow water equivalent (SWE) remains difficult for regional climate models. Accurate SWE simulation depends on complex interacting climate processes such as the intensity and distribution of precipitation, rain-snow partitioning, and radiative fluxes. To identify the driving forces behind SWE difference between model and reanalysis datasets, and guide model improvement, we design a framework to quantitatively decompose the SWE difference contributed from precipitation distribution and magnitude, ablation, temperature and topography biases in regional climate models. We apply this framework within the California Sierra Nevada to four regional climate models from the North American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) run at three spatial resolutions. Models generally predict less SWE compared to Landsat-Era Sierra Nevada Snow Reanalysis (SNSR) dataset. Unresolved topography associated with model resolution contribute to dry and warm biases in models. Refining resolution from 0.44° to 0.11° improves SWE simulation by 35%. To varying degrees across models, additional difference arises from spatial and elevational distribution of precipitation, cold biases revealed by topographic correction, uncertainties in the rain-snow partitioning threshold, and high ablation biases. This work reveals both positive and negative contributions to snow bias in climate models and provides guidance for future model development to enhance SWE simulation.

Evaluating the uncertainty of terrestrial water budget components over High Mountain Asia

This study explores the uncertainties in terrestrial water budget estimation over High Mountain Asia (HMA) using a suite of uncoupled land surface model (LSM) simulations. The uncertainty in the water balance components of precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), runoff(R), and terrestrial water storage (TWS) is significantly impacted by the uncertainty in the driving meteorology, with precipitation being the most important boundary condition. Ten gridded precipitation datasets along with a mix of model-, satellite-, and gauge-based products, are evaluated first to assess their suitability for LSM simulations over HMA. The datasets are evaluated by quantifying the systematic and random errors of these products as well as the temporal consistency of their trends. Though the broader spatial patterns of precipitation are generally well captured by the datasets, they differ significantly in their means and trends. In general, precipitation datasets that incorporate information from gauges are found to have higher accuracy with low Root Mean Square Errors and high correlation coefficient values. An ensemble of LSM simulations with selected subset of precipitation products is then used to produce the mean annual fluxes and their uncertainty over HMA in P, ET, and R to be 2.11±0.45, 1.26±0.11, and 0.85±0.36 mm per day, respectively. The mean annual estimates of the surface mass (water) balance components from this model ensemble are comparable to global estimates from prior studies. However, the uncertainty/spread of P, ET, and R is significantly larger than the corresponding estimates from global studies. A comparison of ET, snow cover fraction, and changes in TWS estimates against remote sensing-based references confirms the significant role of the input meteorology in influencing the water budget characterization over HMA and points to the need for improving meteorological inputs.

Assimilation of Satellite-Based Snow Cover and Freeze/Thaw Observations Over High Mountain Asia

Toward qualifying hydrologic changes in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, this study explores the use of a hyper-resolution (1 km) land data assimilation (DA) framework developed within the NASA Land Information System using the Noah Multi-parameterization Land Surface Model (Noah-MP) forced by the meteorological boundary conditions from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 data. Two different sets of DA experiments are conducted: (1) the assimilation of a satellite-derived snow cover map (MOD10A1) and (2) the assimilation of the NASA MEaSUREs landscape freeze/thaw product from 2007 to 2008. The performance of the snow cover assimilation is evaluated via comparisons with available remote sensing-based snow water equivalent product and ground-based snow depth measurements. For example, in the comparison against ground-based snow depth measurements, the majority of the stations (13 of 14) show slightly improved goodness-of-fit statistics as a result of the snow DA, but only four are statistically significant. In addition, comparisons to the satellite-based land surface temperature products (MOD11A1 and MYD11A1) show that freeze/thaw DA yields improvements (at certain grid cells) of up to 0.58 K in the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and 0.77 K in the absolute bias (relative to model-only simulations). In the comparison against three ground-based soil temperature measurements along the Himalayas, the bias and the RMSE in the 0-10 cm soil temperature are reduced (on average) by 10 and 7%, respectively. The improvements in the top layer of soil estimates also propagate through the deeper soil layers, where the bias and the RMSE in the 10-40 cm soil temperature are reduced (on average) by 9 and 6%, respectively. However, no statistically significant skill differences are observed for the freeze/thaw DA system in the comparisons against ground-based surface temperature measurements at mid-to-low altitude. Therefore, the two proposed DA schemes show the potential of improving the predictability of snow mass, surface temperature, and soil temperature states across HMA, but more ground-based measurements are still required, especially at high-altitudes, in order to document a more statistically significant improvement as a result of the two DA schemes.