Chart-Based Granular Slope Stability Assessment Using the Modified Mohr–Coulomb Criterion

There are usually two types of slopes in nature: soil and rock. However, the granular slope has gradually come into view and has caused concern. In this paper, a modified Mohr–Coulomb (MC) criterion has been proposed to estimate the strength parameters of medium materials using a new parameter ($$\tau_{0}$$ τ 0 ) instead of the traditional MC parameter (c). Meanwhile, there is a new stability chart of a granular slope whose core is the dimensionless stability number Ns and dimensionless coefficient DR based on a modified MC criterion to estimate the safety factor of a granular slope preliminarily when the geometric and strength parameters of the slope are determined. A practical case is introduced to test the results, showing that the stability chart proposed in this paper is applicable to granular slopes. The research content and the proposed new viewpoints are intended to offer preliminary judgments on the stability analysis of granular slopes and provide guidance for the stability analysis and construction design of granular slope engineering.

Sustainable Slope Stability Analysis: A Critical Study on Methods

When studying the stability of a slope, the first issue that needs to be clarified is the slip surface, which determines the minimum safety factor. The slopes investigated here are homogenous with three distinct gradients (1:1.5; 1:1; 2:1), two defined heights (H-3 m; H-8 m), and four different soil characteristics (S1—clayey silt, S2—sandy clayey silt, S3—sandy silty clay, S4—clay). The purpose of this paper is to develop a new methodology capable of estimating the safety factor and the shape and centre of the critical slip surface, delivering an improved estimate of slope probability of failure, which can represent a significant component in a more precise risk assessment. This paper compares distinct methods used in the slope stability analysis, examining their hypotheses and effects on the estimated safety factor and the centre and shape of the critical slip surface. The study compares the limit equilibrium results with those determined by the shear strength reduction method using an approach based on the upper-bound limit analysis to compare the predictions extracted from these methods with those from the finite element method (FEM) analysis. The finite element method discretizes the soil mass into finite elements. Hence, it establishes a kinematically admissible velocity field searching for the failure mechanism of the slope. Results for FEM show the influence of the slope geometry and the mesh size and density on the safety factor. In the study, plots of the regression curves of five different critical slip surface shapes, including a circular slip surface (benchmark), show that the shape of the failure surface depends on the shape and material of the slope. Furthermore, they show that the critical slip surface layout can approach a logarithmic spiral, damped sinusoid, parabola, etc.; the slip surface is not always circular. The analysis reveals that none of the approaches can consider all uncertainties concerning the factor of safety and the interpretations of critical slip surfaces.

Implications of climate change on landslide hazard in Central Italy

The relation between climate change and its potential effects on the stability of slopes remains an open issue. For rainfall induced landslides, the point consists in determining the effects of the projected changes in the duration and amounts of rainfall that can initiate slope failures. We investigated the relationship between fine-scale climate projections obtained by downscaling and the expected modifications in landslide occurrence in Central Italy. We used rainfall measurements taken by 56 rain gauges in the 9-year period 2003-2011, and the RainFARM technique to generate downscaled synthetic rainfall fields from regional climate model projections for the 14-year calibration period 2002-2015, and for the 40-year projection period 2010-2049. Using a specific algorithm, we extracted a number of rainfall events, i.e. rainfall periods separated by dry periods of no or negligible amount of rain, from the measured and the synthetic rainfall series. Then, we used the selected rainfall events to forcethe Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model TRIGRS v. 2.1. We analyzed the results in terms of variations (or lack of variations) in the rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides, in the probability distribution of landslide size (area), and in landslide hazard. Results showed that the downscaled rainfall fields obtained by RainFARM can be used to single out rainfall events, and to force the slope stability model. Results further showed that while the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence are expected to change in future scenarios, the probability distribution of landslide areas are not. We infer that landslide hazard in the study area is expected to change in response to the projected variations in the rainfall conditions. We expect our results to contribute to regional investigations of the expected impact of projected climate variations on slope stability conditions and on landslide hazards.

A multidimensional stability model for predicting shallow landslide size and shape across landscapes

The size of a shallow landslide is a fundamental control on both its hazard and geomorphic importance. Existing models are either unable to predict landslide size or are computationally intensive such that they cannot practically be applied across landscapes. We derive a model appropriate for natural slopes that is capable of predicting shallow landslide size but simple enough to be applied over entire watersheds. It accounts for lateral resistance by representing the forces acting on each margin of potential landslides using earth pressure theory and by representing root reinforcement as an exponential function of soil depth. We test our model's ability to predict failure of an observed landslide where the relevant parameters are well constrained by field data. The model predicts failure for the observed scar geometry and finds that larger or smaller conformal shapes are more stable. Numerical experiments demonstrate that friction on the boundaries of a potential landslide increases considerably the magnitude of lateral reinforcement, relative to that due to root cohesion alone. We find that there is a critical depth in both cohesive and cohesionless soils, resulting in a minimum size for failure, which is consistent with observed size-frequency distributions. Furthermore, the differential resistance on the boundaries of a potential landslide is responsible for a critical landslide shape which is longer than it is wide, consistent with observed aspect ratios. Finally, our results show that minimum size increases as approximately the square of failure surface depth, consistent with observed landslide depth-area data.