Stochastic Generator of Earthquakes for Mainland France

Mainland France is characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity, yet it is known that major earthquakes could strike this territory (e.g., Liguria in 1887 or Basel in 1356). Assessing this French seismic hazard is thus necessary in order to support building codes and to lead prevention actions towards the population. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is the classical approach used to estimate the seismic hazard. One way to apply PSHA is to generate synthetic earthquakes by propagating information from past seismicity and building various seismic scenarios. In this paper, we present an implementation of a stochastic generator of earthquakes and discuss its relevance to mimic the seismicity of low-to-moderate seismic areas. The proposed stochastic generator produces independent events (main shocks) and their correlated seismicity (only aftershocks). Main shocks are simulated first in time and magnitude considering all available data in the area, and then localized in space with the use of a probability map and regionalization. Aftershocks are simulated around main shocks by considering both the seismic moment ratio and distribution of the aftershock’s proportion. The generator is tested with mainland France data.

Effects of Earthquakes on Flood Hazards: A Case Study From Christchurch, New Zealand

Earthquakes can influence flood hazards by altering the flux, volumes, and distributions of surface and/or subsurface waters and causing physical changes to natural and engineered environments (e.g., elevation, topographic relief, permeability) that affect surface and subsurface hydrologic regimes. This paper analyzes how earthquakes increased flood hazards in Christchurch, New Zealand, using empirical observations and seismological data. Between 4 September 2010 and 4 December 2017, this region hosted one moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 earthquake, 3 earthquakes with Mw ≥ 6, and 31 earthquakes with local magnitude (ML) ≥ 5. Flooding related to liquefaction-induced groundwater pore-water fluid pressure perturbations and groundwater expulsion occurred in at least six earthquakes. Flooding related to shaking-induced ground deformations (e.g., subsidence) occurred in at least four earthquakes. Flooding related to tectonic deformations of the land surface (fault surface rupture and/or folding) occurred in at least two earthquakes. At least eight earthquakes caused damage to surface (e.g., buildings, bridges, roads) and subsurface (e.g., pipelines) infrastructure in areas of liquefaction and/or flooding. Severe liquefaction and associated groundwater-expulsion flooding in vulnerable sediments occurred at peak ground accelerations as low as 0.15 to 0.18 g (proportion of gravity). Expected return times of liquefaction-induced flooding in vulnerable sediments were estimated to be 100 to 500 years using the Christchurch seismic hazard curve, which is consistent with emerging evidence from paleo-liquefaction studies. Liquefaction-induced subsidence of 100 to 250 mm was estimated for 100-year peak ground acceleration return periods in parts of Christchurch.