Spatial and temporal variation in surface nitrate and phosphate in the Northern Gulf of Mexico over 35 years

Dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations in the surface waters (0 to 5 m) of the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGoM) were analyzed from 1985 to 2019 (> 10,000 observations) to determine spatiotemporal trends and their connection to nutrients supplied from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River (MAR). In the NGoM, annual mean dissolved inorganic P (DIP) concentrations increased significantly over time, while dissolved inorganic N (DIN) concentrations showed no temporal trend. With greater salinity, mean DIN:DIP decreased from above the Redfield ratio of 16 to below it, reflecting DIN losses and the more conservative behavior of DIP with salinity. Over the same time period, annual mean P (total dissolved P, DIP, dissolved organic P) loading from the MAR to the NGoM significantly increased, annual mean DIN and total dissolved N loading showed no temporal trend, and dissolved organic N loading significantly decreased. Though DIP increased in the MAR, MAR DIP alone was insufficient to explain the surface distribution of DIP with salinity. Therefore, increases in surface DIP in the NGoM are not simply a reflection of increasing MAR DIP, pointing to temporal changes in other DIP sources. The increase in NGoM DIP suggests greater N limitation for phytoplankton, with implications for N fixation and nutrient management.

Quantifying coastal freshwater extremes during unprecedented rainfall using long timeseries multi-platform salinity observations

During 2022, extreme rainfall occurred across southeast Australia, making it the wettest year on record. The oceanic impact of extreme rainfall events in normally 'dry' regions is not well understood, as their effects are challenging to observe. Here, we use unique multi-platform timeseries and spatial data from 36 autonomous ocean glider missions over 13 years, and we define an extreme salinity threshold inshore of the East Australian Current. We show that the freshwater plume extended fivefold further than previously thought. The compound effect of multiple large rainfall events resulted in a newly observed stratification ('double-stacking') dynamic, with the stratification being largely controlled by salinity. Extreme salinity events are known to be important for species composition of local fisheries as well as detrimental for coastal water quality. Such events and their impacts may become more common as extreme rainfall events are projected to become more frequent in a changing climate. Hence, comprehensive observing strategies facilitating identification of salinity extremes are essential.

Spatiotemporal variation of dissolved oxygen concentration in the northern Gulf of Mexico during the period of 1992-2017

Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration is an important index of ocean systems. In this study, spatiotemporal variations in DO were analyzed in the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGM) for the period of 1992-2017. Temporal variation involves annual, monthly, and seasonal variations. The spatial scope ranged from the sea surface to 1000 m depth. The results show that: (1) DO decreased from 1992 to 2017 with a brief increase; (2) clear seasonal variation characteristics of DO were presented, and the seasonal average DO was relatively low in summer; (3) the monthly average trends of sea surface DO in different years were relatively consistent; and (4) with increasing water depth from seawater surface to 1000 m, the average DO of 1992 to 2017 tended to decrease and then increase. The results aim at shedding some light on the assessment of DO change in the NGM over the past quarter century.

Spatial and temporal characterization of cyanobacteria blooms in the Mississippi Sound and their relationship to the Bonnet Carré Spillway openings

During the spring and summer of 2019, an unprecedented cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (cyanoHAB) was responsible for beach advisories on 25 beaches along the Mississippi Sound for over 3 months. Due to the preceding heavy rainfall and flooding within the Mississippi River watershed, for the first time in history, the Bonnet Carré Spillway (BCS) opened twice in one year during 2019. The coastal cyanoHAB coincided with the second BCS opening. The main objectives of this study were: (1) to investigate the potential for using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ocean color standard Cyanobacteria Index (CIcyano) algorithm to characterize the spatial and temporal extent of the 2019 cyanoHAB; (2) to couple the CIcyano data with river discharge, salinity, and modeled-wind data to study the conditions leading to the cyanoHAB and factors aiding the advection and persistence of the bloom within the Mississippi Sound, including a possible relationship to the BCS; (3) to further investigate the relationship with the BCS by repeating the methods using data from 2018, which was a year when the BCS was opened but no evidence of cyanoHABs was reported along the Mississippi coast. Weekly means and monthly frequency CIcyano images, river discharge, salinity, and modeled-wind data from February to September of 2018 and 2019 were analyzed, which coincide with three BCS openings. In March 2018, a cyanobacteria bloom was observed within Lake Pontchartrain coinciding with the BCS opening; however, the month-long bloom was contained to the lake. Two distinct cyanoHABs were observed in 2019 and both blooms were advected into the Mississippi Sound, and likely contributed to the 3-month-long beach water advisories of 2019 along the Mississippi coastline. From March to mid-July 2019, salinity at stations within the Mississippi Sound was consistently near zero indicating high levels of freshwater. During that time, winds were predominantly northwestward, preventing the BCS waters from flushing into the Mississippi Shelf and resulting in BCS waters remaining longer within the estuarine lakes and Mississippi Sound. Although the BCS had an undeniable impact on the presence of the coastal cyanoHAB of 2019, other variables including wind direction, water flow, mixing, and persistence of freshwater within the Sound can determine the intensity and extent of the cyanoHABs. Coupling in situ phytoplankton information from freshwater water bodies to the marine continuum along with water flow, wind data, and satellite imagery could help identify cyanoHABs at early stages and forecast their trajectory and potential impacts on coastal areas.

Oil Transport Following the Deepwater Horizon Blowout

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 was the largest in US history, covering more than 1,000 km of shorelines and causing losses that exceeded $50 billion. While oil transformation processes are understood at the laboratory scale, the extent of the Deepwater Horizon spill made it challenging to integrate these processes in the field. This review tracks the Deepwater Horizon oil during its journey from the Mississippi Canyon block 252 (MC252) wellhead, first discussing the formation of the oil and gas plume and the ensuing oil droplet size distribution, then focusing on the behavior of the oil on the water surface with and without waves. It then reports on massive drifter experiments in the Gulf of Mexico and the impact of the Mississippi River on the oil transport. Finally, it concludes by addressing the formation of oil-particle aggregates. Although physical processes lend themselves to numerical modeling, we attempted to elucidate them without using advanced modeling, as our goal is to enhance communication among scientists, engineers, and other entities interested in oil spills.

Trade-offs between risks of predation and starvation in larvae make the shelf break an optimal spawning location for Atlantic bluefin tuna

Atlantic bluefin tuna (ABT) (Thunnus thynnus) travel long distances to spawn in oligotrophic regions of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) which suggests these regions offer some unique benefit to offspring survival. To better understand how larval survival varies within the GoM a spatially explicit, Lagrangian, individual-based model was developed that simulates dispersal and mortality of ABT early life stages within realistic predator and prey fields during the spawning periods from 1993 to 2012. The model estimates that starvation is the largest cumulative source of mortality associated with an early critical period. However, elevated predation on older larvae is identified as the main factor limiting survival to late postflexion. As a result, first-feeding larvae have higher survival on the shelf where food is abundant, whereas older larvae have higher survival in the open ocean with fewer predators, making the shelf break an optimal spawning area. The modeling framework developed in this study explicitly simulates both physical and biological factors that impact larval survival and hence could be used to support ecosystem based management efforts for ABT under current and future climate conditions.

Insights from barium variability in a Siderastrea siderea coral in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico

Coral Ba/Ca is a proxy for seawater barium concentration that varies with upwelling, terrigenous input, and marine productivity whereas coral Sr/Ca varies with temperature. We examine monthly coral Ba/Ca and Sr/Ca before and during offshore oil exploration in a Siderastrea siderea coral from West Flower Garden Bank located on the continental shelf edge in the Gulf of Mexico. Coral Ba/Ca variations lack pulses driven by upwelling or river outflow and are not in sync with coral Sr/Ca that exhibit a different seasonal pattern. Seasonal variations in chlorophyll-a concentration negatively correlate with coral Ba/Ca explaining 25% of that variability. A significant increase in mean coral Ba/Ca of 1.76 μmol/mol between 1931-1944 and 1976-2004 corresponds to the increase in the United States barite production and consumption primarily used in offshore oil drilling, which escalated in the 1970s, suggesting oil drilling operations are increasing seawater Ba concentration in the Gulf of Mexico.

Progress in Operational Modeling in Support of Oil Spill Response

Following the 2010 Deepwater Horizon accident of a massive blow-out in the Gulf of Mexico, scientists from government, industry, and academia collaborated to advance oil spill modeling and share best practices in model algorithms, parameterizations, and application protocols. This synergy was greatly enhanced by research funded under the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI), a 10-year enterprise that allowed unprecedented collection of observations and data products, novel experiments, and international collaborations that focused on the Gulf of Mexico, but resulted in the generation of scientific findings and tools of broader value. Operational oil spill modeling greatly benefited from research during the GoMRI decade. This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of the related scientific advances, remaining challenges, and future outlook. Two main modeling components are discussed: Ocean circulation and oil spill models, to provide details on all attributes that contribute to the success and limitations of the integrated oil spill forecasts. These forecasts are discussed in tandem with uncertainty factors and methods to mitigate them. The paper focuses on operational aspects of oil spill modeling and forecasting, including examples of international operational center practices, observational needs, communication protocols, and promising new methodologies.

Modeling Spatiotemporal Patterns of Ecosystem Metabolism and Organic Carbon Dynamics Affecting Hypoxia on the Louisiana Continental Shelf

The hypoxic zone on the Louisiana Continental Shelf (LCS) forms each summer due to nutrient enhanced primary production and seasonal stratification associated with freshwater discharges from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). Recent field studies have identified highly productive shallow nearshore waters as an important component of shelf-wide carbon production contributing to hypoxia formation. In this study we present results from a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model named CGEM (Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model) applied to quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of hypoxia, carbon production, respiration, and transport between nearshore and middle shelf regions where hypoxia is most prevalent. We first demonstrate that our simulations successfully reproduced spatial and temporal patterns of carbon production, respiration, and bottom-water oxygen gradients compared to field observations. We then used interannual simulations to identify transport of particulate organic carbon (POC) from nearshore areas where riverine organic matter and phytoplankton carbon production are greatest. The spatial disconnect between carbon production and respiration in our simulations was driven by westward and offshore POC flux, a pattern that supported heterotrophic respiration on the middle shelf where hypoxia is frequently observed. These results validate the importance of offshore carbon flux to hypoxia formation, particularly on the west shelf where hypoxic conditions are more variable.

High-Frequency Variations in Pearl River Plume Observed by Soil Moisture Active Passive Sea Surface Salinity

River plumes play an important role in the cross-margin transport of phytoplankton and nutrients, which have profound impacts on coastal ecosystems. Using recently available Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) sea surface salinity (SSS) data and high-resolution ocean color products, this study investigated summertime high-frequency variations in the Pearl River plume of China and its biological response. The SMAP SSS captures the intraseasonal oscillations in the offshore transport of the Pearl River plume well, which has distinct 30–60 day variations from mid-May to late September. The offshore transport of freshwater varies concurrently with southwesterly wind anomalies and is roughly in phase with the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) index in phases 1–5, thus implying that the MJO exerts a significant influence. During MJO phases 1–2, the southwest wind anomalies in the northeastern South China Sea (SCS) enhanced cross-shore Ekman transport, while the northeast wind anomalies during MJO phases 3–5 favored the subsequent southwestward transport of the plume. The high chlorophyll-a concentration coincided well with the low-salinity water variations, emphasizing the important role of the offshore transport of the Pearl River plume in sustaining biological production over the oligotrophic northern SCS. The strong offshore transport of the plume in June 2015 clearly revealed that the proximity of a cyclonic eddy plays a role in the plume’s dispersal pathway. In addition, heavy rainfall related to the landfall of tropical cyclones in the Pearl River Estuary region contributed to the episodic offshore transport of the plume.

Measuring oil residence time with GPS-drifters, satellites, and Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)

As oil production worldwide continues to increase, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, marine oil spill preparedness relies on deeper understanding of surface oil spill transport science. This paper describes experiments carried out on a chronic release of crude oil and aims to understand the residence time of oil slicks using a combination of remote sensing platforms and GPS tracked drifters. From April 2017 to August 2018, we performed multiple synchronized deployments of drogued and un-drogued drifters to monitor the life time (residence time) of the surface oil slicks originated from the MC20 spill site, located close to the Mississippi Delta. The hydrodynamic design of the two types of drifters allowed us to compare their performance differences. We found the un-drogued drifter to be more appropriate to measure the speed of oil transport. Drifter deployments under various wind conditions show that stronger winds lead to reduce the length of the slick, presumably because of an increase in the evaporation rate and entrainment of oil in the water produced by wave action. We have calculated the residence time of oil slicks at MC20 site to be between 4 and 28 h, with average wind amplitude between 3.8 and 8.8 m/s. These results demonstrate an inverse linear relationship between wind strength and residence time of the oil, and the average residence time of the oil from MC20 is 14.9 h.

On the transport and landfall of marine oil spills, laboratory and field observations

The dynamics of crude oil and different surface ocean drifters were compared to study the physical processes that govern the transport and landfall of marine oil spills. In a wave-tank experiment, drifters with drogue did not follow oil slicks. However, patches of undrogued drifters and thin bamboo plates did spread at the same rate and in the same direction as the crude oil slicks. Then, the trajectories of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and 1300 drifters released near the spill source were investigated. Undrogued drifters were transported twice as fast as drogued drifters across the isobaths. 25% of the undrogued drifters landed, versus about 5% of the drogued ones, for the most part, on the same coastline locations where oil was found after Deepwater Horizon. Results highlight the importance of near surface gradients in controlling the cross-shelf transport and landing of surface material on the Gulf of Mexico's northern shores.

The DeepWater Horizon Oil Slick: Simulations of River Front Effects and Oil Droplet Size Distribution

The effect of river fronts on oil slick transport has been shown using high resolution forcing models and a fully fledged oil drift model, OpenOil. The model was used to simulate two periods of the 2010 DeepWater Horizon oil spill. Metocean forcing data were taken from the data-assimilative GoM-HYCOM 1/50 ∘ ocean model with realistic daily river input and global forecast products of wind and wave parameters from ECMWF. The simulations were initialized from satellite observations of the surface oil patch. The effect of using a newly developed parameterization for oil droplet size distribution was studied and compared to a traditional algorithm. Although the algorithms provide different distributions for a single wave breaking event, it was found that the net difference after long simulations is negligible, indicating that the outcome is robust regarding the choice of parameterization. The effect of removing the river outflow was investigated to showcase effects of river induced fronts on oil spreading. A consistent effect on the amount and location of stranded oil and a considerable impact on the location of the surface oil patch were found. During a period with large river outflow (20–27 May 2010), the total amount of stranded oil is reduced by about 50% in the simulation with no river input. The results compare well with satellite observations of the surface oil patch after simulating the surface oil patch drift for 7–8 days.

Mississippi River and Campeche Bank (Gulf of Mexico) Episodes of Cross-Shelf Export of Coastal Waters Observed with Satellites

The cross-shelf advection of coastal waters into the deep Gulf of Mexico is important for the transport of nutrients or potential pollutants. Twenty years of ocean color satellite imagery document such cross-shelf transport events via three export pathways in the Gulf of Mexico: from the Campeche Bank toward the central Gulf, from the Campeche Bank toward the Florida Straits, and from the Mississippi Delta to the Florida Straits. A catalog of these events was created based on the visual examination of 7280 daily satellite images. Water transport from the Campeche Bank to the central Gulf occurred frequently and with no seasonal pattern. Transport from Campeche Bank to the Florida Straits occurred episodically, when the Loop Current was retracted. Four such episodes were identified, between about December and June, in 2002, 2009, 2016, and 2017, each lasting ~3 months. Movement of Mississippi River water to the Florida Straits was more frequent and showed near seasonal occurrence, when the Loop Current was extended, while the Mississippi River discharge seems to play only a secondary role. Eight such episodes were identified—in 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2011, 2014, and 2015—each lasting ~3 months during summer. The 2015 episode lasted 5 months.

Remote sensing assessment of oil spills near a damaged platform in the Gulf of Mexico

An oil platform in the Mississippi Canyon 20 (MC-20) site was damaged by Hurricane Ivan in September 2004. In this study, we use medium- to high-resolution (10-30 m) optical remote sensing imagery to systematically assess oil spills near this site for the period between 2004 and 2016. Image analysis detects no surface oil in 2004, but ~40% of the cloud-free images in 2005 show oil slicks, and this number increases to ~70% in 2006-2011, and >80% since 2012. For all cloud-free images from 2005 through 2016 (including those without oil slicks), delineated oil slicks show an average oil coverage of 14.9 km²/image, with an estimated oil discharge rate of 48 to ~1700 barrels/day, and a cumulative oil-contaminated area of 1900 km² around the MC-20 site. Additional analysis suggests that the detected oil slick distribution can be largely explained by surface currents, winds, and density fronts.

Satellite observation of particulate organic carbon dynamics in two river-dominated estuaries

Particulate organic carbon (POC) plays an important role in coastal carbon cycling and the formation of hypoxia. Yet, coastal POC dynamics are often poorly understood due a lack of POC observations and the complexity of coastal hydrodynamic and biogeochemical processes that influence POC sources and sinks. Using a dataset of field observations and satellite ocean color products, we developed a new multiple regression algorithm to derive POC from satellite observations in two river-dominated estuaries in the northern Gulf of Mexico: the Louisiana Continental Shelf (LCS) and Mobile Bay. The algorithm had reliable performance with mean relative error (MRE) of ~40%, and root mean square error (RMSE) of ~50% for MODIS and SeaWiFS images in the two systems. Substantial spatio-temporal variability was observed from satellite on the LCS, with higher POC on the inner shelf (< 10 m depth) and lower POC on the middle (10-50 m depth) and outer shelves (50-200 m depth), and with higher POC in winter (January to March), and lower POC in summer to fall (August to October). Correlation analysis between long-term POC time series and several potential influencing factors indicated that river discharge dominants POC dynamics on the LCS. Wind and surface currents also affect POC spatial patterns on short time scales. This study demonstrates that algorithms that can determine coastal POC from satellites greatly increase the spatial and temporal extent of observations available for characterizing POC dynamics and their relations to various dominant physical forcings to the continental shelf and estuaries.

Mississippi River Plume Enriches Microbial Diversity in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

The Mississippi River (MR) serves as the primary source of freshwater and nutrients to the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM). Whether this input of freshwater also enriches microbial diversity as the MR plume migrates and mixes with the nGOM serves as the central question addressed herein. Specifically, in this study physicochemical properties and planktonic microbial community composition and diversity was determined using iTag sequencing of 16S rRNA genes in 23 samples collected along a salinity (and nutrient) gradient from the mouth of the MR, in the MR plume, in the canyon, at the Deepwater Horizon wellhead and out to the loop current. Analysis of these datasets revealed that the MR influenced microbial diversity as far offshore as the Deepwater Horizon wellhead. The MR had the highest microbial diversity, which decreased with increasing salinity. MR bacterioplankton communities were distinct compared to the nGOM, particularly in the surface where Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria dominated, while the deeper MR was also enriched in Thaumarchaeota. Statistical analyses revealed that nutrients input by the MR, along with salinity and depth, were the primary drivers in structuring the microbial communities. These results suggested that the reduced salinity, nutrient enriched MR plume could act as a seed bank for microbial diversity as it mixes with the nGOM. Whether introduced microorganisms are active at higher salinities than freshwater would determine if this seed bank for microbial diversity is ecologically significant. Alternatively, microorganisms that are physiologically restricted to freshwater habitats that are entrained in the plume could be used as tracers for freshwater input to the marine environment.

The carbon dioxide system on the Mississippi River-dominated continental shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico: 1. Distribution and air-sea CO2 flux

River-dominated continental shelf environments are active sites of air-sea CO2 exchange. We conducted 13 cruises in the northern Gulf of Mexico, a region strongly influenced by fresh water and nutrients delivered from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya River system. The sea surface partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) was measured, and the air-sea CO2 flux was calculated. Results show that CO2 exchange exhibited a distinct seasonality: the study area was a net sink of atmospheric CO2 during spring and early summer, and it was neutral or a weak source of CO2 to the atmosphere during midsummer, fall, and winter. Along the salinity gradient, across the shelf, the sea surface shifted from a source of CO2 in low-salinity zones (0≤S<17) to a strong CO2 sink in the middle-to-high-salinity zones (17≤S<33), and finally was a near-neutral state in the high-salinity areas (33≤S<35) and in the open gulf (S≥35). High pCO2 values were only observed in narrow regions near freshwater sources, and the distribution of undersaturated pCO2 generally reflected the influence of freshwater inputs along the shelf. Systematic analyses of pCO2 variation demonstrated the importance of riverine nitrogen export; that is, riverine nitrogen-enhanced biological removal, along with mixing processes, dominated pCO2 variation along the salinity gradient. In addition, extreme or unusual weather events were observed to alter the alongshore pCO2 distribution and to affect regional air-sea CO2 flux estimates. Overall, the study region acted as a net CO2 sink of 0.96 ± 3.7 mol m-2 yr-1 (1.15 ± 4.4 Tg C yr-1).

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations across the Florida Panhandle continental shelf and slope after the BP MC 252 well failure

The Florida Panhandle continental shelf environment was exposed to oil from the BP oil well failure in the Gulf of Mexico during 2010. Floating mats of oil were documented by satellite, but the distribution of dissolved components of the oil in this region was unknown. Shipek® grab samples of sediments were taken during repeated cruises between June 2010 and June 2012 to test for selected polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as indicators of this contamination. Sediments were collected as composite samples, extracted using standard techniques, and PAHs were quantified by GC/MS-SIM. PAHs in samples from the continental slope in May 2011 were highest near to the failed well site and were reduced in samples taken one year later. PAHs from continental shelf sediments during the spill (June 2010) ranged from 10 to 165 ng g(-1). Subsequent cruises yielded variable and reduced amounts of PAHs across the shelf. The data suggest that PAHs were distributed widely across the shelf, and their subsequent loss to background levels suggests these compounds were of oil spill origin. PAH half-life estimates by regression were 70-122 days for slope and 201 days for shelf stations.

Surface evolution of the deepwater horizon oil spill patch: combined effects of circulation and wind-induced drift

Following the Deepwater Horizon blowout, major concerns were raised about the probability that the Loop Current would entrain oil at the surface of the Gulf of Mexico toward South Florida. However, such a scenario did not materialize. Results from a modeling approach suggest that the prevailing winds, through the drift they induced at the ocean surface, played a major role in pushing the oil toward the coasts along the northern Gulf, and, in synergy with the Loop Current evolution, prevented the oil from reaching the Florida Straits. This implies that both oceanic currents and surface wind-induced drift must be taken into account for the successful forecasting of the trajectories and landfall of oil particles, even in energetic environments such as the Gulf of Mexico. Consequently, the time range of these predictions is limited to the weather forecasting range, in addition to the range set up by ocean forecasting capabilities.