Confronting the Challenge of Modeling Cloud and Precipitation Microphysics

Locally narrow droplet size distributions are ubiquitous in stratocumulus clouds

Marine stratocumulus clouds are the "global reflectors," sharply contrasting with the underlying dark ocean surface and exerting a net cooling on Earth's climate. The magnitude of this cooling remains uncertain in part owing to the averaged representation of microphysical processes, such as the droplet-to-drizzle transition in global climate models (GCMs). Current GCMs parameterize cloud droplet size distributions as broad, cloud-averaged gammas. Using digital holographic measurements of discrete stratocumulus cloud volumes, we found cloud droplet size distributions to be narrower at the centimeter scale, never resembling the cloud average. These local distributions tended to form pockets of similar-looking cloud regions, each characterized by a size distribution shape that is diluted to varying degrees. These observations open the way for new modeling representations of microphysical processes.

Machine learning and the quest for objectivity in climate model parameterization

Parameterization and parameter tuning are central aspects of climate modeling, and there is widespread consensus that these procedures involve certain subjective elements. Even if the use of these subjective elements is not necessarily epistemically problematic, there is an intuitive appeal for replacing them with more objective (automated) methods, such as machine learning. Relying on several case studies, we argue that, while machine learning techniques may help to improve climate model parameterization in several ways, they still require expert judgment that involves subjective elements not so different from the ones arising in standard parameterization and tuning. The use of machine learning in parameterizations is an art as well as a science and requires careful supervision.

Dual-Polarization Radar Fingerprints of Precipitation Physics: A Review

This article reviews how precipitation microphysics processes are observed in dual-polarization radar observations. These so-called “fingerprints” of precipitation processes are observed as vertical gradients in radar observables. Fingerprints of rain processes are first reviewed, followed by processes involving snow and ice. Then, emerging research is introduced, which includes more quantitative analysis of these dual-polarization radar fingerprints to obtain microphysics model parameters and microphysical process rates. New results based on a detailed rain shaft bin microphysical model are presented, and we conclude with an outlook of potentially fruitful future research directions.

Theoretical Calculations of Directional Scattering Intensities of Small Nonspherical Ice Crystals: Implications for Forward Scattering Probes

In situ aircraft measurements of the sizes and concentrations of liquid cloud droplets and ice crystals with maximum dimensions (Dmax) less than ~50 μm have been measured mainly using forward scattering probes over the past half century. The operating principle of forward scattering probes is that the measured intensity of light scattered by a cloud particle at specific forward scattering angles can be related to the size of that particle assuming the shape and thermodynamic phase of the target are known. Current forward-scattering probes assume spherical liquid cloud droplets and use the Lorenz–Mie theory to convert the scattered light to particle size. Uncertainties in sizing ice crystals using forward scattering probes are unavoidable since the single-scattering properties of ice crystals differ from those of spherical liquid cloud droplets and because their shapes can vary. In this study, directional scattering intensities of four different aspect ratios (ARs = 0.25, 0.50, 1.00, and 2.00) of hexagonal ice crystals with random orientations and of spherical liquid cloud droplets were calculated using the discrete dipole approximation (i.e., ADDA) and Lorenz–Mie code, respectively, to quantify the errors in sizing small ice crystals and cloud droplets using current forward scattering probes and to determine the ranges of optimal scattering angles that would be used in future forward scattering probes. The calculations showed that current forward scattering probes have average 5.0% and 17.4% errors in sizing liquid cloud droplets in the forward (4–12°) and backward (168–176°) direction, respectively. For measurements of hexagonal ice crystals, average sizing errors were 42.1% (23.9%) in the forward (backward) direction and depended on the ARs of hexagonal ice crystals, which are larger than those for liquid cloud droplets. A newly developed size conversion table based on the calculated single-scattering properties of hexagonal ice crystals using the ADDA reduced the sizing errors for the hexagonal ice crystals down to 14.2% (21.9%) in the forward (backward) direction. This study is a purely theoretical examination of the operating principle of forward scattering probes and there are several limitations, such as assumed hexagonal ice crystals with smooth surfaces and random orientations.

A Comparison of Spectral Bin Microphysics versus Bulk Parameterization in Forecasting Typhoon In-Fa (2021) before, during, and after Its Landfall

Typhoon In-Fa hit continental China in July 2021 and caused an unprecedented rainfall amount, making it a typical case to examine the ability of numerical models in forecasting landfalling typhoons. The record-breaking storm was simulated using a 3-km-resolution weather research and forecast (WRF) model with spectral bin microphysics scheme (BIN) and two-moment seven-class bulk parameterization scheme (BULK). The simulations were then separated into three different typhoon landfall periods (i.e., pre-landfall, landfall, and post-landfall). It was found that typhoon intensity prediction is sensitive to microphysical schemes regardless of landfall periods, while typhoon track prediction tends to be more (less) sensitive to microphysical schemes after (before) typhoon landfall. Moreover, significant differences exist between BIN and BULK schemes in simulating the storm intensity, track, and rainfall distribution. BIN scheme simulates stronger (weaker) typhoon intensity than BULK scheme after (before) landfall, while BULK scheme simulates typhoon moving faster (slower) than BIN scheme before (after) landfall. BIN scheme produces much more extensive and homogeneous typhoon rainbands than BULK scheme, whereas BULK scheme produces stronger (weaker) rainfall in the typhoon inner (outer) rainbands. The possible reasons for such differences are discussed. At present, the ability of WRF and other mesoscale models to accurately simulate the typhoon precipitation hydrometeors is still limited. To evaluate the performances of BIN and BULK schemes of WRF model in simulating the condensed water in Typhoon In-Fa, the observed microwave brightness temperature and radar reflectivity from the core observatory of Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) satellite are directly used for validation with the help of a satellite simulator. It is suggested that BIN scheme has better performance in estimating the spatial structure, overall amplitude, and precise location of the condensed water in typhoons before landfall. During typhoon landfall, the performance of BIN scheme in simulating the structure and location of the condensate is close to that of BULK scheme, but the condensate intensity prediction by BIN scheme is still better; BULK scheme performs even better than BIN scheme in the prediction of condensate structure and location after typhoon landfall. Both schemes seem to have poorer performances in simulating the spatial structure of precipitation hydrometeors during typhoon landfall than before/after typhoon landfall. Moreover, BIN scheme simulates more (less) realistic warm (cold) rain processes than BULK scheme, especially after typhoon landfall. BULK scheme simulates more cloud water and larger convective updraft than BIN scheme, and this is also reported in many model studies comparing BIN and BULK schemes

The future of Earth system prediction: Advances in model-data fusion

Predictions of the Earth system, such as weather forecasts and climate projections, require models informed by observations at many levels. Some methods for integrating models and observations are very systematic and comprehensive (e.g., data assimilation), and some are single purpose and customized (e.g., for model validation). We review current methods and best practices for integrating models and observations. We highlight how future developments can enable advanced heterogeneous observation networks and models to improve predictions of the Earth system (including atmosphere, land surface, oceans, cryosphere, and chemistry) across scales from weather to climate. As the community pushes to develop the next generation of models and data systems, there is a need to take a more holistic, integrated, and coordinated approach to models, observations, and their uncertainties to maximize the benefit for Earth system prediction and impacts on society.

Drought self-propagation in drylands due to land-atmosphere feedbacks

Reduced evaporation due to dry soils can affect the land surface energy balance, with implications for local and downwind precipitation. When evaporation is constrained by soil moisture, the atmospheric supply of water is depleted, and this deficit may propagate in time and space. This mechanism could theoretically result in the self-propagation of droughts, but the extent to which this process occurs is unknown. Here we isolate the influence of soil moisture drought on downwind precipitation using Lagrangian moisture tracking constrained by observations from the 40 largest recent droughts worldwide. We show that dryland droughts are particularly prone to self-propagating, because evaporation tends to respond strongly to enhanced soil water stress. In drylands precipitation can decline by more than 15% due to upwind drought in during a single event, and up to 30% during individual months. In light of projected widespread reductions in water availability, this feedback may further exacerbate future droughts.

Retrieval of Water Cloud Optical and Microphysical Properties from Combined Multiwavelength Lidar and Radar Data

The remote sensing of water clouds is useful for studying their spatial and temporal variations and constraining physical processes in climate and weather prediction models. However, radar-only detection provides inadequate information for the cloud droplet size distribution. Here, we propose a novel lookup-table method, which combines lidar (1064, 532 nm) and radar (8.6 mm) to retrieve profiles of cloud optical (backscatter coefficient and extinction coefficient) and microphysical properties (effective diameter and liquid water content). Through the iteration of the extinction-to-backscatter ratio, more continuous cloud optical characteristics can be obtained. Sensitivity analysis shows that a 10% error of the lidar constant will lead to a retrieval error of up to 30%. The algorithm performed precise capture of the ideal cloud signal at a specific height and at full height and the maximum relative error of the backscatter coefficients at 1064 nm and 532 nm were 6% and 4%, respectively. With the application of the algorithm in the two observation cases on single or multiple cloud layers, the results indicate that the microphysical properties mostly agree with the empirical radar measurements but are slightly different when larger particles cause signal changes of different extents. Consequently, the synergetic algorithm is capable of computing the cloud droplet size distribution. It provides continuous profiles of cloud optical properties and captures cloud microphysical properties well for water cloud studies.

Microphysical Characteristics of Rainfall Observed by a 2DVD Disdrometer during Different Seasons in Beijing, China

The seasonal variations of raindrop size distribution (DSD) and rainfall are investigated using three-year (2016–2018) observations from a two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) located at a suburban station (40.13°N, 116.62°E, ~30 m AMSL) in Beijing, China. The annual distribution of rainfall presents a unimodal distribution with a peak in summer with total rainfall of 966.6 mm, followed by fall. Rain rate (R), mass-weighted mean diameter (Dm), and raindrop concentration (Nt) are stratified into six regimes to study their seasonal variation and relative rainfall contribution to the total seasonal rainfall. Heavy drizzle/light rain (R2: 0.2~2.5 mm h−1) has the maximum occurrence frequency throughout the year, while the total rainfall in summer is primarily from heavy rain (R4: 10~50 mm h−1). The rainfall for all seasons is contributed primarily from small raindrops (Dm2: 1.0~2.0 mm). The distribution of occurrence frequency of Nt and the relative rainfall contribution exhibit similar behavior during four seasons with Nt of 10~1000 m−3 registering the maximum occurrence and rainfall contributions. Rainfall in Beijing is dominated by stratiform rain (SR) throughout the year. There is no convective rainfall (CR) in winter, i.e., it occurs most often during summer. DSD of SR has minor seasonal differences, but varies significantly in CR. The mean values of log10Nw (Nw: mm−1m−3, the generalized intercept parameter) and Dm of CR indicate that the CR during spring and fall in Beijing is neither continental nor maritime, at the same time, the CR in summer is close to the maritime-like cluster. The radar reflectivity (Z) and rain rate (?) relationship (Z = ?R?) showed seasonal differences, but were close to the standard NEXRAD Z-R relationship in summer. The shape of raindrops observed from 2DVD was more spherical than the shape obtained from previous experiments, and the effect of different axis ratio relations on polarimetric radar measurements was investigated through T-matrix-based scattering simulations.