H2 in Antarctic firn air: Atmospheric reconstructions and implications for anthropogenic emissions

The atmospheric history of molecular hydrogen (H₂) from 1852 to 2003 was reconstructed from measurements of firn air collected at Megadunes, Antarctica. The reconstruction shows that H₂ levels in the southern hemisphere were roughly constant near 330 parts per billion (ppb; nmol H₂ mol^-1 air) during the mid to late 1800s. Over the twentieth century, H₂ levels rose by about 70% to 550 ppb. The reconstruction shows good agreement with the H₂ atmospheric history based on firn air measurements from the South Pole. The broad trends in atmospheric H₂ over the twentieth century can be explained by increased methane oxidation and anthropogenic emissions. The H₂ rise shows no evidence of deceleration during the last quarter of the twentieth century despite an expected reduction in automotive emissions following more stringent regulations. During the late twentieth century, atmospheric CO levels decreased due to a reduction in automotive emissions. It is surprising that atmospheric H₂ did not respond similarly as automotive exhaust is thought to be the dominant source of anthropogenic H_2. The monotonic late twentieth century rise in H₂ levels is consistent with late twentieth-century flask air measurements from high southern latitudes. An additional unknown source of H₂ is needed to explain twentieth-century trends in atmospheric H₂ and to resolve the discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates of the anthropogenic source term. The firn air-based atmospheric history of H₂ provides a baseline from which to assess human impact on the H₂ cycle over the last 150 y and validate models that will be used to project future trends in atmospheric composition as H₂ becomes a more common energy source.

Isotopic constraint on the twentieth-century increase in tropospheric ozone

Tropospheric ozone (O₃) is a key component of air pollution and an important anthropogenic greenhouse gas¹. During the twentieth century, the proliferation of the internal combustion engine, rapid industrialization and land-use change led to a global-scale increase in O₃ concentrations^2,3; however, the magnitude of this increase is uncertain. Atmospheric chemistry models typically predict^4-7 an increase in the tropospheric O₃ burden of between 25 and 50 per cent since 1900, whereas direct measurements made in the late nineteenth century indicate that surface O₃ mixing ratios increased by up to 300 per cent^8-10 over that time period. However, the accuracy and diagnostic power of these measurements remains controversial². Here we use a record of the clumped-isotope composition of molecular oxygen (¹⁸O¹⁸O in O₂) trapped in polar firn and ice from 1590 to 2016 AD, as well as atmospheric chemistry model simulations, to constrain changes in tropospheric O₃ concentrations. We find that during the second half of the twentieth century, the proportion of ¹⁸O¹⁸O in O₂ decreased by 0.03 ± 0.02 parts per thousand (95 per cent confidence interval) below its 1590-1958 AD mean, which implies that tropospheric O₃ increased by less than 40 per cent during that time. These results corroborate model predictions of global-scale increases in surface pollution and vegetative stress caused by increasing anthropogenic emissions of O₃ precursors^4,5,11. We also estimate that the radiative forcing of tropospheric O₃ since 1850 AD is probably less than +0.4 watts per square metre, consistent with results from recent climate modelling studies¹².

Paleoclimate. Enhanced tropical methane production in response to iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic

The causal mechanisms responsible for the abrupt climate changes of the Last Glacial Period remain unclear. One major difficulty is dating ice-rafted debris deposits associated with Heinrich events: Extensive iceberg influxes into the North Atlantic Ocean linked to global impacts on climate and biogeochemistry. In a new ice core record of atmospheric methane with ultrahigh temporal resolution, we find abrupt methane increases within Heinrich stadials 1, 2, 4, and 5 that, uniquely, have no counterparts in Greenland temperature proxies. Using a heuristic model of tropical rainfall distribution, we propose that Hudson Strait Heinrich events caused rainfall intensification over Southern Hemisphere land areas, thereby producing excess methane in tropical wetlands. Our findings suggest that the climatic impacts of Heinrich events persisted for 740 to 1520 years.

A gas chromatography/pyrolysis/isotope ratio mass spectrometry system for high-precision deltaD measurements of atmospheric methane extracted from ice cores

Air enclosures in polar ice cores represent the only direct paleoatmospheric archive. Analysis of the entrapped air provides clues to the climate system of the past in decadal to centennial resolution. A wealth of information has been gained from measurements of concentrations of greenhouse gases; however, little is known about their isotopic composition. In particular, stable isotopologues (deltaD and delta(13)C) of methane (CH(4)) record valuable information on its global cycle as the different sources exhibit distinct carbon and hydrogen isotopic composition. However, CH(4) isotope analysis is limited by the large sample size required and the demanding analysis as high precision is required. Here we present a highly automated, high-precision online gas chromatography/pyrolysis/isotope ratio monitoring mass spectrometry (GC/P/irmMS) technique for the analysis of deltaD(CH(4)). It includes gas extraction from ice, preconcentration, gas chromatographic separation and pyrolysis of CH(4) from roughly 500 g of ice with CH(4) concentrations as low as 350 ppbv. Ice samples with approximately 40 mL air and only approximately 1 nmol CH(4) can be measured with a precision of 3.4 per thousand. The precision for 65 mL air samples with recent atmospheric concentration is 1.5 per thousand. The CH(4) concentration can be obtained along with isotope data which is crucial for reporting ice core data on matched time scales and enables us to detect flaws in the measurement procedure. Custom-made script-based processing of MS raw and peak data enhance the system's performance with respect to stability, peak size dependency, hence precision and accuracy and last but not least time requirement.

Polar firn air reveals large-scale impact of anthropogenic mercury emissions during the 1970s

Mercury (Hg) is an extremely toxic pollutant, and its biogeochemical cycle has been perturbed by anthropogenic emissions during recent centuries. In the atmosphere, gaseous elemental mercury (GEM; Hg degrees ) is the predominant form of mercury (up to 95%). Here we report the evolution of atmospheric levels of GEM in mid- to high-northern latitudes inferred from the interstitial air of firn (perennial snowpack) at Summit, Greenland. GEM concentrations increased rapidly after World War II from approximately 1.5 ng m(-3) reaching a maximum of approximately 3 ng m(-3) around 1970 and decreased until stabilizing at approximately 1.7 ng m(-3) around 1995. This reconstruction reproduces real-time measurements available from the Arctic since 1995 and exhibits the same general trend observed in Europe since 1990. Anthropogenic emissions caused a two-fold rise in boreal atmospheric GEM concentrations before the 1970s, which likely contributed to higher deposition of mercury in both industrialized and remotes areas. Once deposited, this toxin becomes available for methylation and, subsequently, the contamination of ecosystems. Implementation of air pollution regulations, however, enabled a large-scale decline in atmospheric mercury levels during the 1980s. The results shown here suggest that potential increases in emissions in the coming decades could have a similar large-scale impact on atmospheric Hg levels.

Global warming and carbon dioxide through sciences

Increased atmospheric CO(2)-concentration is widely being considered as the main driving factor that causes the phenomenon of global warming. This paper attempts to shed more light on the role of atmospheric CO(2) in relation to temperature-increase and, more generally, in relation to Earth's life through the geological aeons, based on a review-assessment of existing related studies. It is pointed out that there has been a debate on the accuracy of temperature reconstructions as well as on the exact impact that CO(2) has on global warming. Moreover, using three independent sets of data (collected from ice-cores and chemistry) we perform a specific regression analysis which concludes that forecasts about the correlation between CO(2)-concentration and temperature rely heavily on the choice of data used, and one cannot be positive that indeed such a correlation exists (for chemistry data) or even, if existing (for ice-cores data), whether it leads to a "severe" or a "gentle" global warming. A very recent development on the greenhouse phenomenon is a validated adiabatic model, based on laws of physics, forecasting a maximum temperature-increase of 0.01-0.03 degrees C for a value doubling the present concentration of atmospheric CO(2). Through a further review of related studies and facts from disciplines like biology and geology, where CO(2)-change is viewed from a different perspective, it is suggested that CO(2)-change is not necessarily always a negative factor for the environment. In fact it is shown that CO(2)-increase has stimulated the growth of plants, while the CO(2)-change history has altered the physiology of plants. Moreover, data from palaeoclimatology show that the CO(2)-content in the atmosphere is at a minimum in this geological aeon. Finally it is stressed that the understanding of the functioning of Earth's complex climate system (especially for water, solar radiation and so forth) is still poor and, hence, scientific knowledge is not at a level to give definite and precise answers for the causes of global warming.

A gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry system for high-precision delta13C measurements of atmospheric methane extracted from ice core samples

Past atmospheric composition can be reconstructed by the analysis of air enclosures in polar ice cores which archive ancient air in decadal to centennial resolution. Due to the different carbon isotopic signatures of different methane sources high-precision measurements of delta13CH4 in ice cores provide clues about the global methane cycle in the past. We developed a highly automated (continuous-flow) gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC/C/IRMS) technique for ice core samples of approximately 200 g. The methane is melt-extracted using a purge-and-trap method, then separated from the main air constituents, combusted and measured as CO2 by a conventional isotope ratio mass spectrometer. One CO2 working standard, one CH4 and two air reference gases are used to identify potential sources of isotope fractionation within the entire sample preparation process and to enhance the stability, reproducibility and accuracy of the measurement. After correction for gravitational fractionation, pre-industrial air samples from Greenland ice (1831 +/- 40 years) show a delta13C(VPDB) of -49.54 +/- 0.13 per thousand and Antarctic samples (1530 +/- 25 years) show a delta13C(VPDB) of -48.00 +/- 0.12 per thousand in good agreement with published data.

Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years

The rate of change of climate codetermines the global warming impacts on natural and socioeconomic systems and their capabilities to adapt. Establishing past rates of climate change from temperature proxy data remains difficult given their limited spatiotemporal resolution. In contrast, past greenhouse gas radiative forcing, causing climate to change, is well known from ice cores. We compare rates of change of anthropogenic forcing with rates of natural greenhouse gas forcing since the Last Glacial Maximum and of solar and volcanic forcing of the last millennium. The smoothing of atmospheric variations by the enclosure process of air into ice is computed with a firn diffusion and enclosure model. The 20th century increase in CO(2) and its radiative forcing occurred more than an order of magnitude faster than any sustained change during the past 22,000 years. The average rate of increase in the radiative forcing not just from CO(2) but from the combination of CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O is larger during the Industrial Era than during any comparable period of at least the past 16,000 years. In addition, the decadal-to-century scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is unusually high in the context of the natural forcing variations (solar and volcanoes) of the past millennium. Our analysis implies that global climate change, which is anthropogenic in origin, is progressing at a speed that is unprecedented at least during the last 22,000 years.

Atmospheric trends and radiative forcings of CF4 and C2F6 inferred from firn air

The atmospheric histories of two potent greenhouse gases, tetrafluoromethane (CF4) and hexafluoroethane (C2F6), have been reconstructed for the 20th century based on firn air measurements from both hemispheres. The reconstructed atmospheric trends show that the mixing ratios of both CF4 and C2F6 have increased during the 20th century by factors of approximately 2 and approximately 10, respectively. Initially, the increasing mixing ratios coincided with the rise in primary aluminum production. However, a slower atmospheric growth rate for CF4 appears to be evident during the 1990s, which supports recent aluminum industry reports of reduced CF4 emissions. This work illustrates the changing relationship between CF4 and C2F6 that is likely to be largely the result of both reduced emissions from the aluminum industry and faster growing emissions of C2F6 from the semiconductor industry. Measurements of C2F6 in the older firn air indicate a natural background mixing ratio of <0.3 parts per trillion (ppt), demonstrating that natural sources of this gas are negligible. However, CF4 was deduced to have a preindustrial mixing ratio of 34 -1 ppt (-50% of contemporary levels). This is in good agreement with the previous work of Harnisch et al. (18) and provides independent confirmation of their results. As a result of the large global warming potentials of CF4 and C2F6, these results have important implications for radiative forcing calculations. The radiative forcings of CF4 and C2F6 are shown to have increased over the past 50 years to values in 2001 of 4.1 x 10(-3) Wm(-2) and 7.5 x 10(-4) Wm(-2), respectively, relative to preindustrial concentrations. These forcings are small compared to present day forcings due to the major greenhouse gases but, if the current trends continue, they will continue to increase since both gases have essentially infinite lifetimes. There is, therefore, a large incentive to reduce perfluorocarbon emissions such that through the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, the atmospheric growth rates may decline in the future.

Atmospheric nitrous oxide: patterns of global change during recent decades and centuries

Data from weekly global measurements of nitrous oxide from 1981 to the end of 1996 are presented. The results show that there is more N2O in the northern hemisphere by about 0.7 +/- 0.04 ppbv, and the Arctic to Antarctic difference is about 1.2 +/- 0.1 ppbv. Concentrations at locations influenced by continental air are higher than at marine sites, showing the existence of large land-based emissions. For the period studied, N2O increased at an average rate of about 0.6 ppbv/year (approximately 0.2%/year) although there were periods when the rates were substantially different. Using ice core data, a record of N2O can be put together that goes back about 1000 years. It shows pre-industrial levels of about 287 +/- 1 ppbv and that concentrations have now risen by about 27 ppbv or 9.4% over the last century. The ice core data show that N2O started increasing only during the 20th century. The data presented here represent a comprehensive view of the present global distribution of N20 and its historical and recent trends.

A potent greenhouse gas identified in the atmosphere: SF(5)CF(3)

We detected a compound previously unreported in the atmosphere, trifluoromethyl sulfur pentafluoride (SF(5)CF(3)). Measurements of its infrared absorption cross section show SF(5)CF(3) to have a radiative forcing of 0.57 watt per square meter per parts per billion. This is the largest radiative forcing, on a per molecule basis, of any gas found in the atmosphere to date. Antarctic firn measurements show it to have grown from near zero in the late 1960s to about 0.12 part per trillion in 1999. It is presently growing by about 0.008 part per trillion per year, or 6% per year. Stratospheric profiles of SF(5)CF(3) suggest that it is long-lived in the atmosphere (on the order of 1000 years).

16 degrees C rapid temperature variation in central greenland 70,000 years Ago

Variations in the (29)N(2)/(28)N(2) ratio of air bubbles trapped in polar ice cores and their relation to variations of the (18)O/(16)O of the ice allow past surface temperature variations and ice age-gas age differences to be determined. High-resolution measurements of (29)N(2)/(28)N(2) in Dansgaard-Oeschger event 19 (around 70,000 years before the present) in ice from Central Greenland show that at the beginning of the event, the ice age-gas age difference was 1090 +/- 100 years. With the use of a combined firn densification, temperature, and gas diffusion model, the delta(18)O(ice)-temperature coefficient alpha was determined to be 0. 42 +/- 0.05 per mil per kelvin. This coefficient implies a mean surface temperature change of 16.0 kelvin (between 14.3 and 18.1 kelvin), which differs substantially from values derived from borehole temperatures and modern spatial delta(18)O(ice)-surface temperature correlations.

Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations

Air trapped in bubbles in polar ice cores constitutes an archive for the reconstruction of the global carbon cycle and the relation between greenhouse gases and climate in the past. High-resolution records from Antarctic ice cores show that carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 80 to 100 parts per million by volume 600 +/- 400 years after the warming of the last three deglaciations. Despite strongly decreasing temperatures, high carbon dioxide concentrations can be sustained for thousands of years during glaciations; the size of this phase lag is probably connected to the duration of the preceding warm period, which controls the change in land ice coverage and the buildup of the terrestrial biosphere.

Gases in ice cores

Air trapped in glacial ice offers a means of reconstructing variations in the concentrations of atmospheric gases over time scales ranging from anthropogenic (last 200 yr) to glacial/interglacial (hundreds of thousands of years). In this paper, we review the glaciological processes by which air is trapped in the ice and discuss processes that fractionate gases in ice cores relative to the contemporaneous atmosphere. We then summarize concentration-time records for CO2 and CH4 over the last 200 yr. Finally, we summarize concentration-time records for CO2 and CH4 during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles, and their relation to records of global climate change.