Geochemical ice-core constraints on the timing and climatic impact of Aniakchak II (1628 BCE) and Thera (Minoan) volcanic eruptions

Decades of research have focused on establishing the exact year and climatic impact of the Minoan eruption of Thera, Greece (c.1680 to 1500 BCE). Ice cores offer key evidence to resolve this controversy, but attempts have been hampered by a lack of multivolcanic event synchronization between records. In this study, Antarctic and Greenland ice-core records are synchronized using a double bipolar sulfate marker, and calendar dates are assigned to each eruption revealed within the 'Thera period'. From this global-scale sequence of volcanic sulfate loading, we derive indications toward each eruption's latitude and potential to disrupt the climate system. Ultrafine sampling for sulfur isotopes and tephra conclusively demonstrate a colossal eruption of Alaska's Aniakchak II as the source of stratospheric sulfate in the now precisely dated 1628 BCE ice layer. These findings end decades of speculation that Thera was responsible for the 1628 BCE event, and place Aniakchak II (52 ± 17 Tg S) and an unknown volcano at 1654 BCE (50 ± 13 Tg S) as two of the largest Northern Hemisphere sulfur injections in the last 4,000 years. This opens possibilities to explore widespread climatic impacts for contemporary societies and, in pinpointing Aniakchak II, confirms that stratospheric sulfate can be globally distributed from eruptions outside the tropics. Dating options for Thera are reduced to a series of precisely dated, constrained stratospheric sulfur injection events at 1611 BCE, 1561/1558/1555BCE, and c.1538 BCE, which are all below 14 ± 5 Tg S, indicating a climatic forcing potential for Thera well below that of Tambora (1815 CE).

Extreme climate after massive eruption of Alaska's Okmok volcano in 43 BCE and effects on the late Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom

The assassination of Julius Caesar in 44 BCE triggered a power struggle that ultimately ended the Roman Republic and, eventually, the Ptolemaic Kingdom, leading to the rise of the Roman Empire. Climate proxies and written documents indicate that this struggle occurred during a period of unusually inclement weather, famine, and disease in the Mediterranean region; historians have previously speculated that a large volcanic eruption of unknown origin was the most likely cause. Here we show using well-dated volcanic fallout records in six Arctic ice cores that one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the past 2,500 y occurred in early 43 BCE, with distinct geochemistry of tephra deposited during the event identifying the Okmok volcano in Alaska as the source. Climate proxy records show that 43 and 42 BCE were among the coldest years of recent millennia in the Northern Hemisphere at the start of one of the coldest decades. Earth system modeling suggests that radiative forcing from this massive, high-latitude eruption led to pronounced changes in hydroclimate, including seasonal temperatures in specific Mediterranean regions as much as 7 °C below normal during the 2 y period following the eruption and unusually wet conditions. While it is difficult to establish direct causal linkages to thinly documented historical events, the wet and very cold conditions from this massive eruption on the opposite side of Earth probably resulted in crop failures, famine, and disease, exacerbating social unrest and contributing to political realignments throughout the Mediterranean region at this critical juncture of Western civilization.

Lead pollution recorded in Greenland ice indicates European emissions tracked plagues, wars, and imperial expansion during antiquity

Lead pollution in Arctic ice reflects midlatitude emissions from ancient lead-silver mining and smelting. The few reported measurements have been extrapolated to infer the performance of ancient economies, including comparisons of economic productivity and growth during the Roman Republican and Imperial periods. These studies were based on sparse sampling and inaccurate dating, limiting understanding of trends and specific linkages. Here we show, using a precisely dated record of estimated lead emissions between 1100 BCE and 800 CE derived from subannually resolved measurements in Greenland ice and detailed atmospheric transport modeling, that annual European lead emissions closely varied with historical events, including imperial expansion, wars, and major plagues. Emissions rose coeval with Phoenician expansion, accelerated during expanded Carthaginian and Roman mining primarily in the Iberian Peninsula, and reached a maximum under the Roman Empire. Emissions fluctuated synchronously with wars and political instability particularly during the Roman Republic, and plunged coincident with two major plagues in the second and third centuries, remaining low for >500 years. Bullion in silver coinage declined in parallel, reflecting the importance of lead-silver mining in ancient economies. Our results indicate sustained economic growth during the first two centuries of the Roman Empire, terminated by the second-century Antonine plague.

High-resolution, continuous method for measurement of acidity in ice cores

The acid content of ice core samples provides information regarding the history of volcanism, biogenic activity, windblown dust, forest fires, and pollution-induced acid rain. A continuous ice core analysis allows for collection of high-resolution data in a very efficient manner, but this technique has not been readily applied to the measurement of pH and acidity in ice cores. The difficulty arises because the sample is highly undersaturated with respect to carbon dioxide (CO(2)) immediately after melting, making it difficult to maintain stable concentrations of dissolved carbon dioxide and carbonic acid (H(2)CO(3)). Here, we present a solution to this problem in the form of a small flow-through bubbling chamber that is supplied with a known concentration of CO(2). The bubbling action allows for quick equilibration while the small size of the chamber limits sample mixing in order to maintain high resolution. Thorough error analysis provides a measurement uncertainty of ±0.20 μM or ±5% of the acidity value, whichever is greater, and the T95 signal response time is determined to be 1.25 min. The performance of the technique is further evaluated with data from a 63-year ice core from northwest Greenland for which all major ion species were also measured. The measured acidity closely matches the acidity derived from a charge balance calculation, indicating that all of the analytes were measured accurately. The performance specifications that we provide are applicable to ice cores with low concentrations of alkaline dust (<500 ppb), which includes the vast majority of ice cores that are collected. To date, the method has not been evaluated with samples containing high alkaline dust concentrations, such as Greenland cores from the last glacial period, where measurement could be made difficult by memory effects as particles coat the internal surfaces of the sample stream.

Stable Isotope Records from Mount Logan, Eclipse Ice Cores and Nearby Jellybean Lake. Water Cycle of the North Pacific Over 2000 Years and Over Five Vertical Kilometres: Sudden Shifts and Tropical Connections

Three ice cores recovered on or near Mount Logan, together with a nearby lake record (Jellybean Lake), cover variously 500 to 30 000 years. This suite of records offers a unique view of the lapse rate in stable isotopes from the lower to upper troposphere. The region is climatologically important, being beside the Cordilleran pinning-point of the Rossby Wave system and the Aleutian Low. Comparison of stable isotope series over the last 2000 years and model simulations suggest sudden and persistent shifts between modern (mixed) and zonal flow regimes of water vapour transport to the Pacific Northwest. The last such shift was in A.D. 1840. Model simulations for modern and “pure” zonal flow suggest that these shifts are consistent regime changes between these flow types, with predominantly zonal flow prior to ca. A.D. 1840 and modern thereafter. The 5.4 and 0.8 km asl records show a shift at A.D. 1840 and another at A.D. 800. It is speculated that the A.D. 1840 regime shift coincided with the end of the Little Ice Age and the A.D. 800 shift with the beginning of the European Medieval Warm Period. The shifts are very abrupt, taking only a few years at most.