Quantifying denitrification and its effect on ozone recovery

Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite observations indicate that extensive denitrification without significant dehydration currently occurs only in the Antarctic during mid to late June. The fact that denitrification occurs in a relatively warm month in the Antarctic raises concern about the likelihood of its occurrence and associated effects on ozone recovery in a colder and possibly more humid future Arctic lower stratosphere. Polar stratospheric cloud lifetimes required for Arctic denitrification to occur in the future are presented and contrasted against the current Antarctic cloud lifetimes. Model calculations show that widespread severe denitrification could enhance future Arctic ozone loss by up to 30%.

Arctic ozone loss due to denitrification

Measurements from the winter of 1994-95 indicating removal of total reactive nitrogen from the Arctic stratosphere by particle sedimentation were used to constrain a microphysical model. The model suggests that denitrification is caused predominantly by nitric acid trihydrate particles in small number densities. The denitrification is shown to increase Arctic ozone loss substantially. Sensitivity studies indicate that the Arctic stratosphere is currently at a threshold of denitrification. This implies that future stratospheric cooling, induced by an increase in the anthropogenic carbon dioxide burden, is likely to enhance denitrification and to delay until late in the next century the return of Arctic stratospheric ozone to preindustrial values.