Mathematical Theory of Seismic Activity and Its Specific Cases: Gutenberg-Richter Law, Omori Law, Roll-Off Effect, and Negative Binomial Distribution

We discuss a model of seismic activity that is based on the concept of energy in a cluster of sources of seismic activity. We show that specific cases of the studied model lead to the Gutenberg-Richter relationship and the Omori law. These laws are valid for earthquakes that happen in a single cluster of sources of seismic activity. Further, we discuss the distribution of earthquakes for several clusters containing sources of seismic activity. This distribution contains, as a specific case, a version of the negative binomial distribution. We show that at least a part of the roll-off effect connected to the parameter b of the Gutenberg- Richter law occurs because one records earthquakes that happen in more than one cluster of sources of seismic activity.

Review and Update on Some Connections between a Spring-Block SOC Model and Actual Seismicity in the Case of Subduction Zones

The self-organized critical (SOC) spring-block models are accessible and powerful computational tools for the study of seismic subduction. This work aims to highlight some important findings through an integrative approach of several actual seismic properties, reproduced by using the Olami, Feder, and Christensen (OFC) SOC model and some variations of it. A few interesting updates are also included. These results encompass some properties of the power laws present in the model, such as the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law, the correlation between the parameters a and b of the linear frequency-magnitude relationship, the stepped plots for cumulative seismicity, and the distribution of the recurrence times of large earthquakes. The spring-block model has been related to other relevant properties of seismic phenomena, such as the fractal distribution of fault sizes, and can be combined with the work of Aki, who established an interesting relationship between the fractal dimension and the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship. Also included is the work incorporating the idea of asperities, which allowed us to incorporate several inhomogeneous models in the spring-block automaton. Finally, the incorporation of a Ruff-Kanamori-type diagram for synthetic seismicity, which is in reasonable accordance with the original Ruff and Kanamori diagram for real seismicity, is discussed.

Sheared granular matter and the empirical relations of seismicity

The frictional instability associated with earthquake initiation and earthquake dynamics is believed to be mainly controlled by the dynamics of fragmented rocks within the fault gauge. Principal features of the emerging seismicity (e.g., intermittent dynamics and broad time and/or energy scales) have been replicated by simple experimental setups, which involve a slowly driven slider on top of granular matter, for example. Yet these setups are often physically limited and might not allow one to determine the underlying nature of specific features and, hence, the universality and generality of the experimental observations. Here, we address this challenge by a numerical study of a spring-slider experiment based on two-dimensional discrete element method simulations, which allows us to control the properties of the granular matter and of the surface of the slider, for example. Upon quasistatic loading, stick-slip-type behavior emerges which is contrasted by a stable sliding regime at finite driving rates, in agreement with experimental observations. Across large parameter ranges for damping, interparticle friction, particle polydispersity, etc., the earthquake-like dynamics associated with the former regime results in several robust scale-free statistical features also observed in experiments. At first sight, these closely resemble the main empirical relations of tectonic seismicity at geological scales. This includes the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of event sizes, the Omori-Utsu-type decay of aftershock rates, as well as the aftershock productivity relation and broad recurrence time distributions. Yet, we show that the correlations associated with tectonic aftershocks are absent such that the origin of the Omori-Utsu relation, the aftershock productivity relation, and Båth's relation in the simulations is fundamentally different from the case of tectonic seismicity. This, we believe, is mainly due to a lack of macroscale relaxation processes that are closely tied to the generation of real aftershocks. We argue that the same is true for previous laboratory experiments.

The influence of the brittle-ductile transition zone on aftershock and foreshock occurrence

Aftershock occurrence is characterized by scaling behaviors with quite universal exponents. At the same time, deviations from universality have been proposed as a tool to discriminate aftershocks from foreshocks. Here we show that the change in rheological behavior of the crust, from velocity weakening to velocity strengthening, represents a viable mechanism to explain statistical features of both aftershocks and foreshocks. More precisely, we present a model of the seismic fault described as a velocity weakening elastic layer coupled to a velocity strengthening visco-elastic layer. We show that the statistical properties of aftershocks in instrumental catalogs are recovered at a quantitative level, quite independently of the value of model parameters. We also find that large earthquakes are often anticipated by a preparatory phase characterized by the occurrence of foreshocks. Their magnitude distribution is significantly flatter than the aftershock one, in agreement with recent results for forecasting tools based on foreshocks.