Data analysis of the unsteadily accelerating GPS and seismic records at Campi Flegrei caldera from 2000 to 2020

Ongoing resurgence affects Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) via bradyseism, i.e. a series of ground deformation episodes accompanied by increases in shallow seismicity. In this study, we perform a mathematical analysis of the GPS and seismic data in the instrumental catalogs from 2000 to 2020, and a comparison of them to the preceding data from 1983 to 1999. We clearly identify and characterize two overlying trends, i.e. a decennial-like acceleration and cyclic oscillations with various periods. In particular, we show that all the signals have been accelerating since 2005, and 90–97% of their increase has occurred since 2011, 40–80% since 2018. Nevertheless, the seismic and ground deformation signals evolved differently—the seismic count increased faster than the GPS data since 2011, and even more so since 2015, growing faster than an exponential function The ground deformation has a linearized rate slope, i.e. acceleration, of 0.6 cm/yr2 and 0.3 cm/yr2 from 2000 to 2020, respectively for the vertical (RITE GPS) and the horizontal (ACAE GPS) components. In addition, all annual rates show alternating speed-ups and slow-downs, consistent between the signals. We find seven major rate maxima since 2000, one every 2.8–3.5 years, with secondary maxima at fractions of the intervals. A cycle with longer period of 6.5–9 years is also identified. Finally, we apply the probabilistic failure forecast method, a nonlinear regression that calculates the theoretical time limit of the signals going to infinity (interpreted here as a critical state potentially reached by the volcano), conditional on the continuation of the observed nonlinear accelerations. Since 2000, we perform a retrospective analysis of the temporal evolution of these forecasts which highlight the periods of more intense acceleration. The failure forecast method applied on the seismic count from 2001 to 2020 produces upper time limits of [0, 3, 11] years (corresponding to the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles, respectively), significantly shorter than those based on the GPS data, e.g. [0, 6, 21] years. Such estimates, only valid under the model assumption of continuation of the ongoing decennial-like acceleration, warn to keep the guard up on the future evolution of Campi Flegrei caldera.

Progressive approach to eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera in southern Italy

Unrest at large calderas rarely ends in eruption, encouraging vulnerable communities to perceive emergency warnings of volcanic activity as false alarms. A classic example is the Campi Flegrei caldera in southern Italy, where three episodes of major uplift since 1950 have raised its central district by about 3 m without an eruption. Individual episodes have conventionally been treated as independent events, so that only data from an ongoing episode are considered pertinent to evaluating eruptive potential. An implicit assumption is that the crust relaxes accumulated stress after each episode. Here we apply a new model of elastic-brittle failure to test the alternative view that successive episodes promote a long-term accumulation of stress in the crust. The results provide the first quantitative evidence that Campi Flegrei is evolving towards conditions more favourable to eruption and identify field tests for predictions on how the caldera will behave during future unrest.

Forecasting eruptions at large calderas remains difficult. Here, the authors apply an elastic-brittle failure model to Campi Flegrei to show that successive episodes of unrest lead to a long-term accumulation of stress in the crust, such that conditions may be becoming more favourable to eruption.

ROCK PHYSICS. Rock physics of fibrous rocks akin to Roman concrete explains uplifts at Campi Flegrei Caldera

Uplifts in the Campi Flegrei caldera reach values unsurpassed anywhere in the world (~2 meters). Despite the marked deformation, the release of strain appears delayed. The rock physics analysis of well cores highlights the presence of two horizons, above and below the seismogenic area, underlying a coupled process. The basement is a calc-silicate rock housing hydrothermal decarbonation reactions, which provide lime-rich fluids. The caprock above the seismogenic area has a pozzolanic composition and a fibril-rich matrix that results from lime-pozzolanic reactions. These findings provide evidence for a natural process reflecting that characterizing the cementitious pastes in modern and Roman concrete. The formation of fibrous minerals by intertwining filaments confers shear and tensile strength to the caprock, contributing to its ductility and increased resistance to fracture.

The Campi Flegrei caldera: unrest mechanisms and hazards

In the last four decades, Campi Flegrei caldera has been the world’s most active caldera characterized by intense unrest episodes involving huge ground deformation and seismicity, but, at the time of writing, has not culminated in an eruption. We present a careful review, with new analyses and interpretation, of all the data and recent research results. We deal with three main problems: the tentative reconstruction of the substructure; the modelling of unrest episodes to shed light on possible pre-eruptive scenarios; and the probabilistic estimation of the hazards from explosive pyroclastic products. The results show, for the first time at a volcano, that a very peculiar mechanism is generating episodes of unrest, involving mainly activation of the geothermal system from deeper magma reservoirs. The character and evolution of unrest episodes is strongly controlled by structural features, like the ring-fault system at the borders of the caldera collapse. The use of detailed volcanological, mathematical and statistical procedures also make it possible to obtain a detailed picture of eruptive hazards in the whole Neapolitan area. The complex behaviour of this caldera, involving interaction between magmatic and geothermal phenomena, sheds light on the dynamics of the most dangerous types of volcanoes in the world.