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Rundle JB, Stein S, Donnellan A, Turcotte DL, Klein W, Saylor C. Reports on progress in physics the complex dynamics of earthquake fault systems: new approaches to forecasting and nowcasting of earthquakes. REPORTS ON PROGRESS IN PHYSICS. PHYSICAL SOCIETY (GREAT BRITAIN) 2021; 84:076801. [PMID: 33857928 DOI: 10.1088/1361-6633/abf893] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2020] [Accepted: 04/15/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Charles Richter's observation that 'only fools and charlatans predict earthquakes,' reflects the fact that despite more than 100 years of effort, seismologists remain unable to do so with reliable and accurate results. Meaningful prediction involves specifying the location, time, and size of an earthquake before it occurs to greater precision than expected purely by chance from the known statistics of earthquakes in an area. In this context, 'forecasting' implies a prediction with a specification of a probability of the time, location, and magnitude. Two general approaches have been used. In one, the rate of motion accumulating across faults and the amount of slip in past earthquakes is used to infer where and when future earthquakes will occur and the shaking that would be expected. Because the intervals between earthquakes are highly variable, these long-term forecasts are accurate to no better than a hundred years. They are thus valuable for earthquake hazard mitigation, given the long lives of structures, but have clear limitations. The second approach is to identify potentially observable changes in the Earth that precede earthquakes. Various precursors have been suggested, and may have been real in certain cases, but none have yet proved to be a general feature preceding all earthquakes or to stand out convincingly from the normal variability of the Earth's behavior. However, new types of data, models, and computational power may provide avenues for progress using machine learning that were not previously available. At present, it is unclear whether deterministic earthquake prediction is possible. The frustrations of this search have led to the observation that (echoing Yogi Berra) 'it is difficult to predict earthquakes, especially before they happen.' However, because success would be of enormous societal benefit, the search for methods of earthquake prediction and forecasting will likely continue. In this review, we note that the focus is on anticipating the earthquake rupture before it occurs, rather than characterizing it rapidly just after it occurs. The latter is the domain of earthquake early warning, which we do not treat in detail here, although we include a short discussion in the machine learning section at the end.
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Affiliation(s)
- John B Rundle
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, United States of America
- Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, United States of America
- Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Rd, Santa Fe, NM 87501, United States of America
| | - Seth Stein
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208, United States of America
| | - Andrea Donnellan
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109, United States of America
| | - Donald L Turcotte
- Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, United States of America
| | - William Klein
- Department of Physics, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, United States of America
| | - Cameron Saylor
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, United States of America
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Kazemian J, Tiampo KF, Klein W, Dominguez R. Foreshock and aftershocks in simple earthquake models. PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS 2015; 114:088501. [PMID: 25768785 DOI: 10.1103/physrevlett.114.088501] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2013] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Many models of earthquake faults have been introduced that connect Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling to triggering processes. However, natural earthquake fault systems are composed of a variety of different geometries and materials and the associated heterogeneity in physical properties can cause a variety of spatial and temporal behaviors. This raises the question of how the triggering process and the structure interact to produce the observed phenomena. Here we present a simple earthquake fault model based on the Olami-Feder-Christensen and Rundle-Jackson-Brown cellular automata models with long-range interactions that incorporates a fixed percentage of stronger sites, or asperity cells, into the lattice. These asperity cells are significantly stronger than the surrounding lattice sites but eventually rupture when the applied stress reaches their higher threshold stress. The introduction of these spatial heterogeneities results in temporal clustering in the model that mimics that seen in natural fault systems along with GR scaling. In addition, we observe sequences of activity that start with a gradually accelerating number of larger events (foreshocks) prior to a main shock that is followed by a tail of decreasing activity (aftershocks). This work provides further evidence that the spatial and temporal patterns observed in natural seismicity are strongly influenced by the underlying physical properties and are not solely the result of a simple cascade mechanism.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Kazemian
- Department of Earth Sciences, Western University, London, Ontario N6A 5B7, Canada
| | - K F Tiampo
- Department of Earth Sciences, Western University, London, Ontario N6A 5B7, Canada
| | - W Klein
- Department of Physics and Center for Computational Sciences, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, USA
| | - R Dominguez
- Department of Physics, Randolph-Macon College, Ashland, Virginia 23005, USA
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Gabrielov A, Newman WI. Seismicity Modeling and Earthquake Prediction: A Review. NONLINEAR DYNAMICS AND PREDICTABILITY OF GEOPHYSICAL PHENOMENA 2013. [DOI: 10.1029/gm083p0007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
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Robinson R, Benites R. Synthetic seismicity models of multiple interacting faults. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/95jb01569] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Rundle JB. A physical model for earthquakes: 3. Thermodynamical approach and its relation to nonclassical theories of nucleation. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/jb094ib03p02839] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Bonafede M. The recurrence time of dislocation events on the antitethic margins of an elastic plate welded to a Maxwell viscoelastic half-space. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/jb094ib04p04159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Liu-Zeng J, Klinger Y, Sieh K, Rubin C, Seitz G. Serial ruptures of the San Andreas fault, Carrizo Plain, California, revealed by three-dimensional excavations. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2006. [DOI: 10.1029/2004jb003601] [Citation(s) in RCA: 79] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jing Liu-Zeng
- Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences; California Institute of Technology; Pasadena California USA
- Laboratoire de Tectonique; Institut de Physique du Globe Paris; Paris France
| | - Yann Klinger
- Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences; California Institute of Technology; Pasadena California USA
- Laboratoire de Tectonique; Institut de Physique du Globe Paris; Paris France
| | - Kerry Sieh
- Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences; California Institute of Technology; Pasadena California USA
| | - Charles Rubin
- Department of Geological Sciences; Central Washington University; Ellensburg Washington USA
| | - Gordon Seitz
- Department of Geological Sciences; San Diego State University; San Diego California USA
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Rundle JB, Rundle PB, Donnellan A, Turcotte DL, Shcherbakov R, Li P, Malamud BD, Grant LB, Fox GC, McLeod D, Yakovlev G, Parker J, Klein W, Tiampo KF. A simulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Francisco earthquake. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2005; 102:15363-7. [PMID: 16219696 PMCID: PMC1266132 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0507528102] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
In 1906 the great San Francisco earthquake and fire destroyed much of the city. As we approach the 100-year anniversary of that event, a critical concern is the hazard posed by another such earthquake. In this article, we examine the assumptions presently used to compute the probability of occurrence of these earthquakes. We also present the results of a numerical simulation of interacting faults on the San Andreas system. Called Virtual California, this simulation can be used to compute the times, locations, and magnitudes of simulated earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the vicinity of San Francisco. Of particular importance are results for the statistical distribution of recurrence times between great earthquakes, results that are difficult or impossible to obtain from a purely field-based approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- J B Rundle
- Center for Computational Science and Engineering, and Department of Geology, University of California-Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
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Tiampo KF, Rundle JB, McGinnis S, Gross SJ, Klein W. Eigenpatterns in southern California seismicity. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2002. [DOI: 10.1029/2001jb000562] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- K. F. Tiampo
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences; University of Colorado; Boulder Colorado USA
| | - J. B. Rundle
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences; University of Colorado; Boulder Colorado USA
| | - S. McGinnis
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences; University of Colorado; Boulder Colorado USA
| | - S. J. Gross
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences; University of Colorado; Boulder Colorado USA
| | - W. Klein
- Department of Physics; Boston University; Boston Massachusetts USA
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Rundle PB, Rundle JB, Tiampo KF, Martins JS, McGinnis S, Klein W. Nonlinear network dynamics on earthquake fault systems. PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS 2001; 87:148501. [PMID: 11580678 DOI: 10.1103/physrevlett.87.148501] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2000] [Revised: 07/16/2001] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Earthquake faults occur in interacting networks having emergent space-time modes of behavior not displayed by isolated faults. Using simulations of the major faults in southern California, we find that the physics depends on the elastic interactions among the faults defined by network topology, as well as on the nonlinear physics of stress dissipation arising from friction on the faults. Our results have broad applications to other leaky threshold systems such as integrate-and-fire neural networks.
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Affiliation(s)
- P B Rundle
- Fairview High School, Bolder, Colorado 80309, USA
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Bowman DD, Ouillon G, Sammis CG, Sornette A, Sornette D. An observational test of the critical earthquake concept. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1998. [DOI: 10.1029/98jb00792] [Citation(s) in RCA: 352] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Saleur H, Sammis CG, Sornette D. Discrete scale invariance, complex fractal dimensions, and log-periodic fluctuations in seismicity. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1996. [DOI: 10.1029/96jb00876] [Citation(s) in RCA: 144] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Taylor MAJ, Zheng G, Rice JR, Stuart WD, Dmowska R. Cyclic stressing and seismicity at strongly coupled subduction zones. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1996. [DOI: 10.1029/95jb03561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Grant LB, Sieh K. Paleoseismic evidence of clustered earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault in the Carrizo Plain, California. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1994. [DOI: 10.1029/94jb00125] [Citation(s) in RCA: 126] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Ward SN. An application of synthetic seismicity in earthquake statistics: The Middle America Trench. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1992. [DOI: 10.1029/92jb00236] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Williams CA, Richardson RM. A rheologically layered three-dimensional model of the San Andreas Fault in central and southern California. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1991. [DOI: 10.1029/91jb01484] [Citation(s) in RCA: 90] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Hudnut KW, Beavan J. Vertical deformation (1952–1987) in the Salton Trough, California, from water level recordings. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1989. [DOI: 10.1029/jb094ib07p09463] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Rundle JB. Derivation of the complete Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relation using the principle of scale invariance. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1989. [DOI: 10.1029/jb094ib09p12337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 133] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Sieh K, Stuiver M, Brillinger D. A more precise chronology of earthquakes produced by the San Andreas Fault in southern California. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1989. [DOI: 10.1029/jb094ib01p00603] [Citation(s) in RCA: 302] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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