Feedback between megathrust earthquake cycle and plate convergence

Over million years, convergence between the Nazca and South America tectonic plates results in Andean orogeny. Over decades/centuries, it fuels the earthquake cycle of the Andean megathrust. It is well recognised that, over the geologically-long term of million years, Andean orogeny feeds back onto plate convergence rates, generating temporal changes documented throughout the Neogene. In contrast, no feedback mechanism operated over the geologically-short term by the earthquake cycle is currently contemplated. In fact, it is commonly assumed that the rates of contemporary convergence, which are accurately measured via geodesy, remain steady during the megathrust earthquake cycle. Here we investigate whether the contemporary Nazca/South America plate motion varies over year-/decade-long periods in response to megathrust stress variations associated with the earthquake cycle. We focus on the decade preceding the three largest and most recent [Formula: see text] earthquakes (2010 [Formula: see text] Maule, 2014 [Formula: see text] Iquique, 2015 [Formula: see text] Illapel), and find slowdowns of both Nazca and South America whole-plate motions that exceed the impact of data uncertainty or noise. We show that the torque variations required upon Nazca and South America to generate the slowdowns are consistent with that arising from the buildup of interseismic stress preceding the earthquakes.

What controls the remobilization and deformation of surficial sediment by seismic shaking? Linking lacustrine slope stratigraphy to great earthquakes in South-Central Chile

Remobilization and deformation of surficial subaqueous slope sediments create turbidites and soft sediment deformation structures, which are common features in many depositional records. Palaeoseismic studies have used seismically-induced turbidites and soft sediment deformation structures preserved in sedimentary sequences to reconstruct recurrence patterns and - in some cases - allow quantifying rupture location and magnitude of past earthquakes. However, current understanding of earthquake-triggered remobilization and deformation lacks studies targeting where these processes take place, the subaqueous slope and involving direct comparison of sedimentary fingerprint with well-documented historical earthquakes. This study investigates the sedimentary imprint of six megathrust earthquakes with varying rupture characteristics in 17 slope sediment cores from two Chilean lakes, Riñihue and Calafquén, and evaluates how it links to seismic intensity, peak ground acceleration, bracketed duration and slope angle. Centimetre-scale stratigraphic gaps ranging from ca 1 to 20 cm - caused by remobilization of surficial slope sediment - were identified using high-resolution multi-proxy core correlation of slope to basin cores, and six types of soft sediment deformation structures ranging from ca 1 to 25 cm thickness using high-resolution three-dimensional X-ray computed tomography data. Stratigraphic gaps occur on slope angles of ≥2.3°, whereas deformation already occurs from slope angle 0.2°. The thickness of both stratigraphic gaps and soft sediment deformation structures increases with slope angle, suggesting that increased gravitational shear stress promotes both surficial remobilization and deformation. Seismic shaking is the dominant trigger for surficial remobilization and deformation at the studied lakes. Total remobilization depth correlates best with bracketed duration and is highest in both lakes for the strongest earthquakes (M _w ca 9.5). In lake Riñihue, soft sediment deformation structure thickness and type correlate best with peak ground acceleration providing the first field-based evidence of progressive soft sediment deformation structure development with increasing peak ground acceleration for soft sediment deformation structures caused by Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. The authors propose that long duration and low frequency content of seismic shaking favours surficial remobilization, whereas ground motion amplitude controls Kelvin-Helmholtz instability-related soft sediment deformation structure development.

Liquiñe-Ofqui's fast slipping intra-volcanic arc crustal faulting above the subducted Chile Ridge

The southernmost portion of the Liquiñe-Ofqui fault zone (LOFZ) lies within the proposed slab window which formed due to oblique subduction of the Chile Ridge in Patagonia. Mapping of paleo-surface ruptures, offsets, and lithological separations along the master fault allowed us to constrain geologic slip rates for the first time with dextral rates of 11.6–24.6 mm/year (Quaternary) and 3.6–18.9 mm/year (Late-Cenozoic) respectively. We had trouble mapping the LOFZ in one local because of a partially collapsed and previously undiscovered volcanic complex, Volcan Mate Grande (VMG: 1,280 m high and thus Vesuvius-sized) that grew in a caldera also offset along the LOFZ and has distinct geochemistry from adjacent stratovolcanoes. Besides the clear seismic and volcanic hazard implications, the structural connection along the main trace of the fast slipping LOFZ and geochemistry of VMG provides evidence for the slab window and insight into interplay between fast-slipping crustal intra-arc crustal faults and volcanoes.

2010 Maule earthquake slip correlates with pre-seismic locking of Andean subduction zone

The magnitude-8.8 Maule (Chile) earthquake of 27 February 2010 ruptured a segment of the Andean subduction zone megathrust that has been suspected to be of high seismic potential. It is the largest earthquake to rupture a mature seismic gap in a subduction zone that has been monitored with a dense space-geodetic network before the event. This provides an image of the pre-seismically locked state of the plate interface of unprecedentedly high resolution, allowing for an assessment of the spatial correlation of interseismic locking with coseismic slip. Pre-seismic locking might be used to anticipate future ruptures in many seismic gaps, given the fundamental assumption that locking and slip are similar. This hypothesis, however, could not be tested without the occurrence of the first gap-filling earthquake. Here we show evidence that the 2010 Maule earthquake slip distribution correlates closely with the patchwork of interseismic locking distribution as derived by inversion of global positioning system (GPS) observations during the previous decade. The earthquake nucleated in a region of high locking gradient and released most of the stresses accumulated in the area since the last major event in 1835. Two regions of high seismic slip (asperities) appeared to be nearly fully locked before the earthquake. Between these asperities, the rupture bridged a zone that was creeping interseismically with consistently low coseismic slip. The rupture stopped in areas that were highly locked before the earthquake but where pre-stress had been significantly reduced by overlapping twentieth-century earthquakes. Our work suggests that coseismic slip heterogeneity at the scale of single asperities should indicate the seismic potential of future great earthquakes, which thus might be anticipated by geodetic observations.

Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks

The space-time epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is a stochastic branching process in which earthquake activity is classified into background and clustering components and each earthquake triggers other earthquakes independently according to certain rules. This paper gives the probability distributions associated with the largest event in a cluster and their properties for all three cases when the process is subcritical, critical, and supercritical. One of the direct uses of these probability distributions is to evaluate the probability of an earthquake to be a foreshock, and magnitude distributions of foreshocks and nonforeshock earthquakes. To verify these theoretical results, the Japan Meteorological Agency earthquake catalog is analyzed. The proportion of events that have 1 or more larger descendants in total events is found to be as high as about 15%. When the differences between background events and triggered event in the behavior of triggering children are considered, a background event has a probability about 8% to be a foreshock. This probability decreases when the magnitude of the background event increases. These results, obtained from a complicated clustering model, where the characteristics of background events and triggered events are different, are consistent with the results obtained in [Ogata, Geophys. J. Int. 127, 17 (1996)] by using the conventional single-linked cluster declustering method.

Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake

It is commonly thought that the longer the time since last earthquake, the larger the next earthquake's slip will be. But this logical predictor of earthquake size, unsuccessful for large earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, fails also with the giant 1960 Chile earthquake of magnitude 9.5 (ref. 3). Although the time since the preceding earthquake spanned 123 years (refs 4, 5), the estimated slip in 1960, which occurred on a fault between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, equalled 250-350 years' worth of the plate motion. Thus the average interval between such giant earthquakes on this fault should span several centuries. Here we present evidence that such long intervals were indeed typical of the last two millennia. We use buried soils and sand layers as records of tectonic subsidence and tsunami inundation at an estuary midway along the 1960 rupture. In these records, the 1960 earthquake ended a recurrence interval that had begun almost four centuries before, with an earthquake documented by Spanish conquistadors in 1575. Two later earthquakes, in 1737 and 1837, produced little if any subsidence or tsunami at the estuary and they therefore probably left the fault partly loaded with accumulated plate motion that the 1960 earthquake then expended.

Late Cenozoic geomorphic and tectonic evolution of the Patagonian Andes between latitudes 42°S and 46°S: An appraisal based on fission-track results from the transpressional intra-arc Liquiñe-Ofqui fault zone

Fission-track (FT) thermochronology has been applied to investigate the low-temperature cooling and denudation history of the Patagonian Andes along the southern part of the intra-arc transpressional Liquiñe-Ofqui fault zone between 42° and 46°S. The Liquiñe-Ofqui fault is shown to have been the focus of enhanced cooling and denudation initiated between ca. 16 and 10 Ma. Several fault blocks with different cooling histories are identified; these are separated by major oblique- or reverse-slip faults proposed to form the eastern part of a major (crustal-scale) dextral transpression zone. Local very fast rates of cooling and denudation between ca. 7 and 2 Ma were coeval with collision of the Chile Rise (an active mid-oceanic ridge) with the Peru-Chile Trench between ∼47° and 48°S. This location is close to the southern termination of the Liquiñe-Ofqui fault, implying that the collision of the ridge was a major force driving late Cenozoic transpression. The lack of significant cooling and denudation before ca. 16 Ma is indicative of pure strike-slip or transtensional movement along the Liquiñe-Ofqui fault before the collision of the ridge. Digital landscape analysis supports glacial and periglacial erosion as the main contributor to denudation since ca. 7 Ma, leading to restriction of topographic development. The combination of transpression-induced rock uplift and glacial erosion is shown to be very effective at causing localized denudation. Anomalously young FT ages along the Liquiñe-Ofqui fault are attributed to the existence of a late Cenozoic localized heat-flow anomaly along the fault.