Moderation of classic social psychological effects by demographics in the U.S. adult population: New opportunities for theoretical advancement

High replicability of newly discovered social-behavioural findings is achievable

Failures to replicate evidence of new discoveries have forced scientists to ask whether this unreliability is due to suboptimal implementation of methods or whether presumptively optimal methods are not, in fact, optimal. This paper reports an investigation by four coordinated laboratories of the prospective replicability of 16 novel experimental findings using rigour-enhancing practices: confirmatory tests, large sample sizes, preregistration and methodological transparency. In contrast to past systematic replication efforts that reported replication rates averaging 50%, replication attempts here produced the expected effects with significance testing (P < 0.05) in 86% of attempts, slightly exceeding the maximum expected replicability based on observed effect sizes and sample sizes. When one lab attempted to replicate an effect discovered by another lab, the effect size in the replications was 97% that in the original study. This high replication rate justifies confidence in rigour-enhancing methods to increase the replicability of new discoveries.

Optimally generate policy-based evidence before scaling

Social scientists have increasingly turned to the experimental method to understand human behaviour. One critical issue that makes solving social problems difficult is scaling up the idea from a small group to a larger group in more diverse situations. The urgency of scaling policies impacts us every day, whether it is protecting the health and safety of a community or enhancing the opportunities of future generations. Yet, a common result is that, when we scale up ideas, most experience a 'voltage drop'-that is, on scaling, the cost-benefit profile depreciates considerably. Here I argue that, to reduce voltage drops, we must optimally generate policy-based evidence. Optimality requires answering two crucial questions: what information should be generated and in what sequence. The economics underlying the science of scaling provides insights into these questions, which are in some cases at odds with conventional approaches. For example, there are important situations in which I advocate flipping the traditional social science research model to an approach that, from the beginning, produces the type of policy-based evidence that the science of scaling demands. To do so, I propose augmenting efficacy trials by including relevant tests of scale in the original discovery process, which forces the scientist to naturally start with a recognition of the big picture: what information do I need to have scaling confidence?

Sex Stereotypes and Child Physical Abuse: Mediating Effects of Attitudes on Beliefs about Consequences for Abusive Parents

We hypothesized that (a) sex stereotypes would influence individuals' attitudes toward and beliefs about physically abusive parents and (b) these attitudes would mediate the connection between sex stereotypes and beliefs. Participants read one of four scenarios in which (a) sex of parents and sex of children were systematically varied while (b) holding constant the actions of parents and children as well as surrounding circumstances. Participants then expressed their attitudes about those parents and their beliefs about appropriate consequences for these parents. As expected, participants held more unfavorable attitudes about fathers than mothers and believed lenient consequences were more appropriate for mothers than fathers. Moreover, the linkage between parents' sex and participants' beliefs was mediated by participants' attitudes such that the effects of sex stereotypes on beliefs were all indirect rather than direct. Limitations (e.g., cross-sectional design, sample representativeness) and future directions (e.g., alternative parental and child behaviors, individual differences as moderators) are discussed.

Is it ethical to use Mechanical Turk for behavioral research? Relevant data from a representative survey of MTurk participants and wages

To understand human behavior, social scientists need people and data. In the last decade, Amazon's Mechanical Turk (MTurk) emerged as a flexible, affordable, and reliable source of human participants and was widely adopted by academics. Yet despite MTurk's utility, some have questioned whether researchers should continue using the platform on ethical grounds. The brunt of their concern is that people on MTurk are financially insecure, subject to abuse, and earn inhumane wages. We investigated these issues with two representative probability surveys of the U.S. MTurk population (N = 4094). The surveys revealed: (1) the financial situation of people on MTurk mirrors the general population, (2) most participants do not find MTurk stressful or requesters abusive, and (3) MTurk offers flexibility and benefits that most people value above other options for work. People reported it is possible to earn more than $10 per hour and said they would not trade the flexibility of MTurk for less than $25 per hour. Altogether, our data are important for assessing whether MTurk is an ethical place for research.

Americans experience a false social reality by underestimating popular climate policy support by nearly half

Pluralistic ignorance—a shared misperception of how others think or behave—poses a challenge to collective action on problems like climate change. Using a representative sample of Americans (N = 6119), we examine whether Americans accurately perceive national concern about climate change and support for mitigating policies. We find a form of pluralistic ignorance that we describe as a false social reality: a near universal perception of public opinion that is the opposite of true public sentiment. Specifically, 80–90% of Americans underestimate the prevalence of support for major climate change mitigation policies and climate concern. While 66–80% Americans support these policies, Americans estimate the prevalence to only be between 37–43% on average. Thus, supporters of climate policies outnumber opponents two to one, while Americans falsely perceive nearly the opposite to be true. Further, Americans in every state and every assessed demographic underestimate support across all polices tested. Preliminary evidence suggests three sources of these misperceptions: (i) consistent with a false consensus effect, respondents who support these policies less (conservatives) underestimate support by a greater degree; controlling for one’s own personal politics, (ii) exposure to more conservative local norms and (iii) consuming conservative news correspond to greater misperceptions.

A new study finds that Americans underestimate how many are concerned about climate change as well as support for major climate policies by nearly half, with climate policy supporters significantly outnumbering non-supporters.

A synergistic mindsets intervention protects adolescents from stress

Social-evaluative stressors-experiences in which people feel they could be judged negatively-pose a major threat to adolescent mental health1-3 and can cause young people to disengage from stressful pursuits, resulting in missed opportunities to acquire valuable skills. Here we show that replicable benefits for the stress responses of adolescents can be achieved with a short (around 30-min), scalable 'synergistic mindsets' intervention. This intervention, which is a self-administered online training module, synergistically targets both growth mindsets4 (the idea that intelligence can be developed) and stress-can-be-enhancing mindsets5 (the idea that one's physiological stress response can fuel optimal performance). In six double-blind, randomized, controlled experiments that were conducted with secondary and post-secondary students in the United States, the synergistic mindsets intervention improved stress-related cognitions (study 1, n = 2,717; study 2, n = 755), cardiovascular reactivity (study 3, n = 160; study 4, n = 200), daily cortisol levels (study 5, n = 118 students, n = 1,213 observations), psychological well-being (studies 4 and 5), academic success (study 5) and anxiety symptoms during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns (study 6, n = 341). Heterogeneity analyses (studies 3, 5 and 6) and a four-cell experiment (study 4) showed that the benefits of the intervention depended on addressing both mindsets-growth and stress-synergistically. Confidence in these conclusions comes from a conservative, Bayesian machine-learning statistical method for detecting heterogeneous effects6. Thus, our research has identified a treatment for adolescent stress that could, in principle, be scaled nationally at low cost.

Behavioural science is unlikely to change the world without a heterogeneity revolution

In the past decade, behavioural science has gained influence in policymaking but suffered a crisis of confidence in the replicability of its findings. Here, we describe a nascent heterogeneity revolution that we believe these twin historical trends have triggered. This revolution will be defined by the recognition that most treatment effects are heterogeneous, so the variation in effect estimates across studies that defines the replication crisis is to be expected as long as heterogeneous effects are studied without a systematic approach to sampling and moderation. When studied systematically, heterogeneity can be leveraged to build more complete theories of causal mechanism that could inform nuanced and dependable guidance to policymakers. We recommend investment in shared research infrastructure to make it feasible to study behavioural interventions in heterogeneous and generalizable samples, and suggest low-cost steps researchers can take immediately to avoid being misled by heterogeneity and begin to learn from it instead.

Dynamic Norms and Food Choice: Reflections on a Failure of Minority Norm Information to Influence Motivation to Reduce Meat Consumption

Recent research in the US shows the potential of providing information about minority norms that are increasing on positively influencing interest and engagement in desired behaviours. Although these are promising findings, there is little published research replicating or testing this effect outside the US. The study reported here is a direct replication of Sparkman and Walton’s (2017) research. We explored the effects of different kinds of normative information, particularly information about increasing (referred to as ‘dynamic’ or ‘trending’) minority norms, on interest in reducing meat consumption, attitudes toward reducing meat consumption, intentions to reduce meat consumption, and expectations to do so. Following pilot work (n = 197), we used a double-blind online study with three conditions: dynamic norm (n = 276), static norm (n = 284), and no norm (n = 286). The sample consisted of British people, with ages ranging from 18 to 79 (Mage = 37.21, SDage = 13.58; 56.38% female). There was no effect of dynamic norm information on any outcomes, including predictions about future meat consumption norms. Exploratory analyses suggest that political position and gender were associated with meat consumption outcomes. The findings are discussed in relation to conditions under which dynamic normative information may be successful in influencing motivation to engage in desired behaviours, and to possible improvements in research design.

A Synergistic Mindsets Intervention Protects Adolescents from Social Stress

Social stress poses a major threat to adolescent health via its effects on internalizing symptoms, such as anxiety and depression. Available interventions to help adolescents improve their stress responses, however, have not been effective in rigorous evaluation studies, or they have been difficult to administer widely. Here we show that replicable improvements in adolescent stress responses can be achieved with a short (~30-minute), scalable synergistic mindsets intervention. This intervention, which is a self-administered online training module, targets both growth mindsets (the idea that people's intelligence can be developed in response to challenge) and stress-can-be-enhancing mindsets (the idea that people's stress responses can be fuel for optimal performance). Its goal is to promote positive engagement with stressful events (e.g., learning from failure on a quiz or a conflict with a peer) and to encourage adolescents to use their responses to stressful events and even their bodily symptoms (e.g. racing heart, sweaty palms, butterflies in their stomach) to their advantage. In five double-blind, randomized, controlled trials (total N = 4,091 adolescents), the new synergistic mindsets intervention improved stress-related cognitions (Studies 1-2), cardiovascular reactivity (Study 3), daily internalizing symptoms and cortisol levels (Study 4), and generalized anxiety symptoms during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns (Study 5). Effects on downstream outcomes (in Studies 3-5) were stronger among individuals who, at baseline, held the two negative mindsets targeted by the intervention, providing evidence for the proposed mechanisms. Confidence in this conclusion comes from a conservative, Bayesian machine-learning method for detecting heterogeneity.

How social norms are often a barrier to addressing climate change but can be part of the solution

We argue that the behavioral challenges posed by climate change are fundamentally problems of social influence. Behaviors that perpetuate climate change are often opaque in their consequences; thus, we look to others to infer how to act. Yet unsustainable behaviors, like driving and eating meat, are often the norm; conformity to such norms is a major hurdle to a more sustainable world. Nonetheless, we argue that social norms can also be a powerful lever for positive change. Drawing on two streams of recent research, we show that well-implemented social norm strategies can motivate positive steps even in the face of a negative current norm and even in individuals’ private behavior absent the judgment of others. First, appeals to dynamic norms – information about change in others or trends in norms over time – can lead people to conform to the change itself, even if this change violates current norms. Second, framing normative appeals in terms of an invitation to work with others toward a common goal can increase the motivation to join in. Despite ubiquitous unsustainable norms, careful theory-based representations of social norms can help us make progress on climate change.