The search for extraterrestrial intelligence

Relative Likelihood of Success in the Search for Primitive versus Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life

We estimate the relative likelihood of success in the searches for primitive versus intelligent life on other planets. Taking into account the larger search volume for detectable artificial electromagnetic signals, we conclude that both searches should be performed concurrently, albeit with significantly more funding dedicated to primitive life. Based on the current federal funding allocated to the search for biosignatures, our analysis suggests that the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) may merit a federal funding level of at least $10 million per year, assuming that the average lifetime of technological species exceeds a millennium.

Signal coverage approach to the detection probability of hypothetical extraterrestrial emitters in the Milky Way

The lack of evidence for the existence of extraterrestrial life, even the simplest forms of animal life, makes it is difficult to decide whether the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) is more a high-risk, high-payoff endeavor than a futile attempt. Here we insist that even if extraterrestrial civilizations do exist and communicate, the likelihood of detecting their signals crucially depends on whether the Earth lies within a region of the galaxy covered by such signals. By considering possible populations of independent emitters in the galaxy, we build a statistical model of the domain covered by hypothetical extraterrestrial signals to derive the detection probability that the Earth is within such a domain. We show that for general distributions of the signal longevity and directionality, the mean number of detectable emitters is less than one even for detection probabilities as large as 50%, regardless of the number of emitters in the galaxy.

Detection technique for artificially illuminated objects in the outer solar system and beyond

Existing and planned optical telescopes and surveys can detect artificially illuminated objects, comparable in total brightness to a major terrestrial city, at the outskirts of the Solar System. Orbital parameters of Kuiper belt objects (KBOs) are routinely measured to exquisite precisions of<10(-3). Here, we propose to measure the variation of the observed flux F from such objects as a function of their changing orbital distances D. Sunlight-illuminated objects will show a logarithmic slope α ≡ (d log F/d log D)=-4, whereas artificially illuminated objects should exhibit α=-2. The proposed Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and other planned surveys will provide superb data and allow measurement of α for thousands of KBOs. If objects with α=-2 are found, follow-up observations could measure their spectra to determine whether they are illuminated by artificial lighting. The search can be extended beyond the Solar System with future generations of telescopes on the ground and in space that would have the capacity to detect phase modulation due to very strong artificial illumination on the nightside of planets as they orbit their parent stars.