Decadal predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature and climate

Comparison of a Smartfin with an Infrared Sea Surface Temperature Radiometer in the Atlantic Ocean

The accuracy and precision of satellite sea surface temperature (SST) products in nearshore coastal waters are not well known, owing to a lack of in-situ data available for validation. It has been suggested that recreational watersports enthusiasts, who immerse themselves in nearshore coastal waters, be used as a platform to improve sampling and fill this gap. One tool that has been used worldwide by surfers is the Smartfin, which contains a temperature sensor integrated into a surfboard fin. If tools such as the Smartfin are to be considered for satellite validation work, they must be carefully evaluated against state-of-the-art techniques to quantify data quality. In this study, we developed a Simple Oceanographic floating Device (SOD), designed to float on the ocean surface, and deployed it during the 28th Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT28) research cruise (September and October 2018). We attached a Smartfin to the underside of the SOD, which measured temperature at a depth of ∼0.1 m, in a manner consistent with how it collects data on a surfboard. Additional temperature sensors (an iButton and a TidbiT v2), shaded and positioned a depth of ∼1 m, were also attached to the SOD at some of the stations. Four laboratory comparisons of the SOD sensors (Smartfin, iButton and TidbiT v2) with an accurate temperature probe (±0.0043 K over a range of 273.15 to 323.15 K) were also conducted during the AMT28 voyage, over a temperature range of 290–309 K in a recirculating water bath. Mean differences (δ), referenced to the temperature probe, were removed from the iButton (δ=0.292 K) and a TidbiT v2 sensors (δ=0.089 K), but not from the Smartfin, as it was found to be in excellent agreement with the temperature probe (δ=0.005 K). The SOD was deployed for 20 min periods at 62 stations (predawn and noon) spanning 100 degrees latitude and a gradient in SST of 19 K. Simultaneous measurements of skin SST were collected using an Infrared Sea surface temperature Autonomous Radiometer (ISAR), a state-of-the-art instrument used for satellite validation. Additionally, we extracted simultaneous SST measurements, collected at slightly different depths, from an underway conductivity, temperature and depth (CTD) system. Over all 62 stations, the mean difference (δ) and mean absolute difference (ϵ) between Smartfin and the underway CTD were −0.01 and 0.06 K respectively (similar results obtained from comparisons between Smartfin and iButton and Smartfin and TidbiT v2), and the δ and ϵ between Smartfin and ISAR were 0.09 and 0.12 K respectively. In both comparisons, statistics varied between noon and predawn stations, with differences related to environmental variability (wind speed and sea-air temperature differences) and depth of sampling. Our results add confidence to the use of Smartfin as a citizen science tool for evaluating satellite SST data, and data collected using the SOD and ISAR were shown to be useful for quantifying near-surface temperature gradients.

A multi-decadal record of oceanographic changes of the past ~165 years (1850-2015 AD) from Northwest of Iceland

Extending oceanographic data beyond the instrumental period is highly needed to better characterize and understand multi-decadal to centennial natural ocean variability. Here, a stable isotope record at unprecedented temporal resolution (1 to 2 years) from a new marine core retrieved off western North Iceland is presented. We aim to better constrain the variability of subsurface, Atlantic-derived Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW), using near surface-dwelling planktic foraminifera and Arctic Intermediate Water (AIW) mass changes using benthic foraminifera over the last ~165 years. The reconstruction overlaps in time with instrumental observations and a direct comparison reveals that the δ¹⁸O record of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma is reliably representing temperature fluctuations in the SPMWs. Trends in the N. pachyderma δ¹³C record match the measured phosphate concentration in the upper 200 m on the North Icelandic Shelf well. Near surface-dwelling foraminifera trace anthropogenic CO₂ in the Iceland Sea by ~ 1950 ± 8, however, a reduced amplitude shift in the Marine Suess effect is identified. We argue that this is caused by a contemporary ongoing increase in marine primary productivity in the upper ocean due to enhanced Greenland’s freshwater discharge that has contributed to a nutrient-driven fertilization since the 1940s/50s (Perner et al., 2019). Multi-decadal variability is detected. We find that the 16-year periodicity evident in SPMW and AIWs based on the δ¹⁸O of N. pachyderma and M. barleeanum is a signal of SST anomalies propagated into the Nordic Seas via the Atlantic inflow branches around Iceland. Spectral analyses of the planktic foraminiferal δ¹³C signal indicate intermittent 30-year cycles that are likely reflecting the ocean response to atmospheric variability, presumably the East Atlantic Pattern. A long-term trend in benthic δ¹⁸O suggests that Atlantic-derived waters are expanding their core within the water column from the subsurface into deeper intermediate depths towards the present day. This is a result of increased transport by the North Icelandic Irminger Current to the North Iceland Shelf over the historical era.

Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean

It is commonly understood that a potential for skillful climate prediction resides in the ocean. It nevertheless remains unresolved to what extent variable ocean heat is imprinted on the atmosphere to realize its predictive potential over land. Here we assess from observations whether anomalous heat in the Gulf Stream's northern extension provides predictability of northwestern European and Arctic climate. We show that variations in ocean temperature in the high latitude North Atlantic and Nordic Seas are reflected in the climate of northwestern Europe and in winter Arctic sea ice extent. Statistical regression models show that a significant part of northern climate variability thus can be skillfully predicted up to a decade in advance based on the state of the ocean. Particularly, we predict that Norwegian air temperature will decrease over the coming years, although staying above the long-term (1981–2010) average. Winter Arctic sea ice extent will remain low but with a general increase towards 2020.

The degree to which ocean heat is imprinted on the atmosphere and can be used to predict climate remains unclear. Here, the authors demonstrate skillful observation-based prediction of northwestern European and Arctic climate from upstream sea surface temperature anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic.

No inter-gyre pathway for sea-surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic

Recent Lagrangian analyses of surface drifters have questioned the existence of a surface current connecting the Gulf Stream (GS) to the subpolar gyre (SPG) and have cast doubt on the mechanism underlying an apparent pathway for sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies between the two regions. Here we use modelled Lagrangian trajectories to determine the fate of surface GS water and satellite SST data to analyse pathways of GS SST anomalies. Our results show that only a small fraction of the surface GS water reaches the SPG, the water that does so mainly travels below the surface mixed layer, and GS SST anomalies do not propagate into the SPG on interannual timescales. Instead, the inter-gyre heat transport as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation must be accomplished via subsurface pathways. We conclude that the SST in the SPG cannot be predicted by tracking SST anomalies along the GS.

Long-range persistence of temperature records induced by long-term climatic phenomena

The occurrence of persistence in climatic systems has been investigated by analyzing 1167 surface temperature records, covering 110 years, in the whole United States. Due to the nonlinear and nonstationary character of temperature time series, the seasonal cycle suffers from both phase and amplitude modulations, which are not properly removed by the classical definition of the temperature anomaly. In order to properly filter out the seasonal component and the monotonic trends, we define the temperature anomaly in a different way by using the empirical mode decomposition (EMD). The essence of this method is to empirically identify the intrinsic oscillatory modes from the temperature records according to their characteristic time scale. The original signal is thus decomposed into a collection of a finite small number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), having its own time scale and representing oscillations experiencing amplitude and phase modulations, and a residue, describing the mean trend. The sum of all the IMF components as well as the residue reconstructs the original signal. Partial reconstruction can be achieved by selectively choosing IMFs in order to remove trivial trends and noise. The EMD description in terms of time-dependent amplitude and phase functions overcomes one of the major limitation of the Fourier analysis, namely, a correct description of nonlinearities and nonstationarities. By using the EMD definition of temperature anomalies we found persistence of fluctuations with a different degree according to the geographical location, on time scales in the range 3-15 years. The spatial distribution of the detrended fluctuation analysis exponent, used to quantify the degree of memory, indicates that the long-term persistence could be related to to the presence of climatic regions, which are more sensitive to climatic phenomena such as the El Niño southern oscillation.

Amplitude-frequency fluctuations of the seasonal cycle, temperature anomalies, and long-range persistence of climate records

The presence of long-term persistence of climate records on scales from 2 to 15 yr has been reported in the literature, even if the universality of this result is controversial. In the present paper results from monthly temperature records measured for about 250 yr in Prague and Milan are reported. Because of the nonlinear and nonstationary character of temperature time series the seasonal contribution has been identified through the empirical mode decomposition. We find that the seasonal component of the climate records is characterized by some time scales showing both amplitude and phase fluctuations. By using a more suitable definition of temperature anomalies, and thus excluding persistence effects due to seasonal oscillations and trends, the occurrence of long-term persistence has been investigated through the detrended fluctuation analysis. Our results indicate persistence on scales from 3 to 10 yr with similar values for the detrended fluctuation analysis indices.

Culture or climate? The relative influences of past processes on the composition of the lowland Congo rainforest

This paper presents the results from a palaeoecological study to establish the impact of prehistoric human activity and climate change on the vegetation and soils of the Goualougo area of the Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park, in the Republic of Congo (Congo-Brazzaville). This is a region that is known from previous work (through evidence of pottery, furnaces and charcoal layers beneath the present day rainforest vegetation) to have had prehistoric settlement dating back to at least 2000 calibrated years before present. In addition, there is climatic evidence to suggest that significant variations in precipitation have occurred in central Africa over the last few millennia. Presently, the region is covered in uninhabited moist semi-evergreen rainforest. Key research questions addressed in this paper include the extent to which the present-day composition of rainforest in this region is as a result of processes of the past (climate change and/or human activity), and the resilience of the rainforest to these perturbations. Statistical analyses of pollen, microscopic charcoal and geochemical data are used to determine the relationship over time between vegetation dynamics and climate change, anthropogenic burning and metal smelting. Significant changes in forest composition are linked to burning and climate change but not metallurgy. The strongest influence on the present day composition appears to be related to the increased anthropogenic burning that started approximately 1000 years ago. Results from this study are discussed in terms of their implications for the present and future management of this globally important forested region.

Developing constraints on the relative sea-level curve for the northeast of Ireland from the mid-Holocene to the present day

Tide-gauge records from the north of Ireland have been digitized to generate annual estimates of both mean-sea-level (MSL) position from Malin Head (1958-1998), and mean tidal level (MTL) from Belfast Harbour (1918-2002). Both sites exhibit substantial annual variation, but show overall long-term shallow rates of falling relative sea-level change (RSLC) that are very similar at -0.2 mma(-1) (+/-0.37 mma(-1)) for Belfast and -0.16 mma(-1) (+/-0.17 mma(-1)) for Malin. Using these rates as constraints, plus other constraints of inferred RSLC rates from the mid-Holocene, an approximation of the likely profile of RSLC rates for the northeast of Ireland since 6 ka ago is presented.

Probing Molecular Structure at Interfaces for Comparison with Bulk Solution Behavior: Water/2-Propanol Mixtures Monitored by Vibrational Sum Frequency Spectroscopy

The orientation of the isopropyl group at the liquid/vapor interface in 2-propanol/water binary mixtures was studied by vibrational sum frequency spectroscopy. The CH(3) stretch modes of the two methyl groups were used to determine the molecule's orientation by employing a novel united atom approach to model the (CH(3))(2)X moiety. For this purpose, the changes in the molecular susceptibility of the isopropyl group stretches were derived in the laboratory frame as a function of the tilt and twist angles. The results indicated that the methyl groups lay down on the surface at low alcohol mole fraction and gradually twisted with increasing mole fraction. At the azeotrope, x(iso) = 0.68, one of the methyl groups aligned approximately parallel to the surface normal, whereas the other was nearly parallel with the liquid/vapor interface. When the mole fraction of 2-propanol was higher than 0.68, the orientation of 2-propanol remained almost constant. The change in the alcohol's orientation with 2-propanol mole fraction closely tracked changes in its bulk activity coefficient. Such results lead to a picture in which the surface structure and bulk properties of the system are closely linked.

Green chemical engineering aspects of reactive distillation

Reactive or catalytic distillation technology combines chemical synthesis steps with separations by distillation. This combination can lead to intensified, high-efficiency process systems with significant green engineering attributes. New applications and understanding have prompted growth in the use of reactive distillation for a variety of chemical syntheses, especially esterifications and etherifications involving oxygenated hydrocarbons. We describe several applications and the potential and tradeoffs for reactive distillation technology in the context of green engineering principles.

A review of the possible impacts of long-term oceanic and climate changes and fishing mortality on recruitment of anguillid eels of the Northern Hemisphere

Possible causes of declines in recruitment of European, American and Japanese eels to continental waters are reviewed. Negative correlations between the Den Oever glass eel recruitment index (DOI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index since 1938 are discussed, together with older anecdotal evidence. Correlations are established between the DOI and sea surface temperature anomalies at 100-250 m between 1952 and 1995 in the Sargasso Sea/Sub-Tropical Gyre (STG) spawning area. It is hypothesised that, associated with global warming trends, STG warming inhibits spring thermocline mixing and nutrient circulation, with negative impacts on productivity and hence food for leptocephalus larvae. Concurrent gyre spin-up also affects major currents and slowing of oceanic migration has probably enhanced starvation and predation losses. Local factors, such as unfavourable wind-driven currents, can also affect recruitment of glass eels on continental shelves. In contrast, evidence is discussed that indicates fishing mortality and continental climate change appear to have had lesser impacts. Similar starvation-advection explanations for declines in Japanese eel recruitment are proposed. Predictions for the future are made and multidisciplinary and integrated monitoring and research are recommended for managing eel stocks and fisheries.

The North Atlantic Oscillation: past, present, and future

The climate of the Atlantic sector exhibits considerable variability on a wide range of time scales. A substantial portion is associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a hemispheric meridional oscillation in atmospheric mass with centers of action near Iceland and over the subtropical Atlantic. NAO-related impacts on winter climate extend from Florida to Greenland and from northwestern Africa over Europe far into northern Asia. Over the last 3 decades, the phase of the NAO has been shifting from mostly negative to mostly positive index values. Much remains to be learned about the mechanisms that produce such low frequency changes in the North Atlantic climate, but it seems increasingly likely that human activities are playing a significant role.

North atlantic oscillation dynamics recorded in greenland ice cores

Carefully selected ice core data from Greenland can be used to reconstruct an annual proxy North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) index. This index for the past 350 years indicates that the NAO is an intermittent climate oscillation with temporally active (coherent) and passive (incoherent) phases. No indication for a single, persistent, multiannual NAO frequency is found. In active phases, most of the energy is located in the frequency band with periods less than about 15 years. In addition, variability on time scales of 80 to 90 years has been observed since the mid-19th century.