A score for the prediction of cardiovascular events in the hypertensive aged

Prediction models for cardiovascular disease risk in the hypertensive population: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to identify, describe, and evaluate the available cardiovascular disease risk prediction models developed or validated in the hypertensive population.

METHODS

MEDLINE and the Web of Science were searched from database inception to March 2019, and all reference lists of included articles were reviewed.

RESULTS

A total of 4766 references were screened, of which 18 articles were included in the review, presenting 17 prediction models specifically developed for hypertensive populations and 25 external validations. Among the 17 prediction models, most were constructed based on randomized trials in Europe or North America to predict the risk of fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular events. The most common predictors were classic cardiovascular risk factors such as age, diabetes, sex, smoking, and SBP. Of the 17 models, only one model was externally validated. Among the 25 external validations, C-statistics ranged from 0.58 to 0.83, 0.56 to 0.75, and 0.64 to 0.78 for models developed in the hypertensive population, the general population and other specific populations, respectively. Most of the development studies and validation studies had an overall high risk of bias according to PROBAST.

CONCLUSION

There are a certain number of cardiovascular risk prediction models in patients with hypertension. The risk of bias assessment showed several shortcomings in the methodological quality and reporting in both the development and validation studies. Most models developed in the hypertensive population have not been externally validated. Compared with models developed for the general population and other specific populations, models developed for the hypertensive population do not display a better performance when validated among patients with hypertension. Research is needed to validate and improve the existing cardiovascular disease risk prediction models in hypertensive populations rather than developing completely new models.

A cardiovascular risk score for hypertensive patients previously admitted to hospital

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular risk scales in hypertensive populations have limitations for clinical practice.

AIMS

To develop and internally validate a predictive model to estimate one-year cardiovascular risk for hypertensive patients admitted to hospital.

METHODS

Cohort study of 303 hypertensive patients admitted through the Emergency Department in a Spanish region in 2015-2017. The main variable was the onset of cardiovascular disease during follow-up. The secondary variables were: gender, age, educational level, family history of cardiovascular disease, Charlson score and its individual conditions, living alone, quality of life, smoking, blood pressure, physical activity and adherence to the Mediterranean diet. A Cox regression model was constructed to predict cardiovascular disease one year after admission. This was then adapted to a points system, externally validated by bootstrapping (discrimination and calibration) and implemented in a mobile application for Android.

RESULTS

A total of 93 patients developed cardiovascular disease (30.7%) over a mean period of 1.68 years. The predictors in the points system were: gender, age, myocardial infarction, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease and daily activity (quality of life). The internal validation by bootstrapping was satisfactory.

CONCLUSION

A novel points system was developed to predict short-term cardiovascular disease in hypertensive patients after hospital admission. External validation studies are needed to corroborate the results obtained.

A preoperative scoring system to predict the risk of No.10 lymph node metastasis for advanced upper gastric cancer: a large case report based on a single-center study

PURPOSE

To investigate upper stomach carcinoma risk factors for No. 10 lymph node (LN) metastasis, and establish a preoperative scoring system to predict No.10 LN metastasis.

METHOD

Between January 2011 and December 2014, we prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed the data of 398 patients with upper-third gastric cancer (GC) who underwent laparoscopic spleen-preserving hilar lymph-node dissection (SHLND). We use the logistics regression analysis risk factors of No. 10 LN metastasis to establish and verify a scoring model.

RESULT

Among the 398 patients examined, 38 patients had No. 10 LN metastasis, yielding a 9.6% transfer rate. The preoperative risk factor analysis for No. 10 LN metastasis in the modeling group showed that tumor size, preoperative T staging, and preoperative N staging are independent risk factors. To establish a scoring system, we divided the modeling group of patients into three levels: low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk. The No. 10 LN metastasis rates of the low risk, intermediate risk and high risk groups were 2.84%, 13.9% and 34.9% respectively, with statistically significant (P < 0.001). The value for the area under the ROC curve of the scoring system was 0.820, and there were no statistically significant differences between the observed and predicted incidence rates for No. 10 LN metastasis in the validation set (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The scoring system comprising the tumor size, preoperative T stage and N stage is a simple and effective method to predict the risk of No. 10 LN metastasis and to preoperatively select cases suitable for laparoscopic spleen-preserving SHLND.

Personalized absolute benefit of statin treatment for primary or secondary prevention of vascular disease in individual elderly patients

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the absolute treatment effect of statin therapy on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; myocardial infarction, stroke and vascular death) for the individual patient aged ≥70 years.

METHODS

Prediction models for MACE were derived in patients aged ≥70 years with (n = 2550) and without (n = 3253) vascular disease from the "PROspective Study of Pravastatin in Elderly at Risk" (PROSPER) trial and validated in the "Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease" (SMART) cohort study (n = 1442) and the "Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Lipid Lowering Arm" (ASCOT-LLA) trial (n = 1893), respectively, using competing risk analysis. Prespecified predictors were various clinical characteristics including statin treatment. Individual absolute risk reductions (ARRs) for MACE in 5 and 10 years were estimated by subtracting on-treatment from off-treatment risk.

RESULTS

Individual ARRs were higher in elderly patients with vascular disease [5-year ARRs: median 5.1 %, interquartile range (IQR) 4.0-6.2 %, 10-year ARRs: median 7.8 %, IQR 6.8-8.6 %] than in patients without vascular disease (5-year ARRs: median 1.7 %, IQR 1.3-2.1 %, 10-year ARRs: 2.9 %, IQR 2.3-3.6 %). Ninety-eight percent of patients with vascular disease had a 5-year ARR ≥2.0 %, compared to 31 % of patients without vascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

With a multivariable prediction model the absolute treatment effect of a statin on MACE for individual elderly patients with and without vascular disease can be quantified. Because of high ARRs, treating all patients is more beneficial than prediction-based treatment for secondary prevention of MACE. For primary prevention of MACE, the prediction model can be used to identify those patients who benefit meaningfully from statin therapy.

Prediction of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality at 10 years in the hypertensive aged population

BACKGROUND

We have previously developed a score for predicting cardiovascular events in the intermediate term in an elderly hypertensive population. In this study, we aimed to extend this work to predict 10-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the hypertensive aged population.

METHODS

Ten-year follow-up data of 5,378 hypertensive participants in the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study who were aged 65-84 years at baseline (1995-2001) and without prior cardiovascular events were analyzed. By using bootstrap resampling variable selection methods and comparing the Akaike and Bayesian information criterion and C-indices of the potential models, optimal and parsimonious multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict 10-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The models were validated using bootstrap validation method internally and using the Dubbo Study dataset externally.

RESULTS

The final model for cardiovascular mortality included detrimental (age, smoking, diabetes, waist-hip ratio, and disadvantaged socioeconomic status) and protective factors (female sex, alcohol consumption, and physical activity). The final model for all-cause mortality also included detrimental (age, smoking, random blood glucose, and disadvantaged socioeconomic status) and protective factors (female sex, alcohol consumption, body mass index, and statin use). Blood pressure did not appear in either model in this patient group. The C-statistics for internal validation were 0.707 (cardiovascular mortality) and 0.678 (all-cause mortality), and for external validation were 0.729 (cardiovascular mortality) and 0.772 (all-cause mortality).

CONCLUSIONS

These algorithms allow reliable estimation of 10-year risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality for hypertensive aged individuals.

Changing prediction of mortality by systolic blood pressure with increasing age: the Rotterdam study

There are indications that in persons of older age, systolic blood pressure (SBP) is no longer associated with mortality. This raises the question whether the predictive value of SBP changes from younger to older age groups. Analysis in the Rotterdam Study, a population-based prospective cohort study among 4,612 participants aged ≥55 years without previous cardiovascular disease and with a median follow-up of 14.9 (interquartile range, 11.1-15.8) years. Within four age groups (55-64, 65-74, 75-84, ≥85 years), the predictive value of baseline SBP for mortality was studied. From age 55 to ≥85 years, risk of all-cause mortality associated with SBP ≥160 mmHg decreased from HR 1.7 (95%CI 1.2-2.2) to HR 0.7 (95%CI 0.4-1.1), p for trend <0.001. For participants with SBP 140-159 mmHg, the risk decreased from HR 1.2 (95%CI 0.9-1.5) to HR 0.7 (95%CI 0.5-1.1), p for trend <0.001. Analyses in the 5-year age groups showed an increased risk with higher SBPs up to age 75 years. After 75 years, a trend towards SBP no longer being associated with an increased mortality risk was seen in our study. These findings need to be considered with recently reported beneficial effects of antihypertensive treatment in this age group.