Breast cancer mortality trends in Italy

Selection of High-Risk Groups for Breast Cancer Screening. Evidence from an Italian Multicentric Case Control Study

In recent years techniques for the selection of risk groups for high priority breast screening have been evaluated (7, 11). We used data from a large multicentric case control study in Italy, recently published (12), to fit a reduced logistic model for predictive purposes, using variables which are easily collected. The predicted probability of being a case obtained through the logistic analysis was then used to classify the same set of data by calculating values of sensitivity and specificity at different cutoff points of the predicted probability. The results showed the low predictive power of the model. The selection of higher risk groups in a screening population program is discussed.

Incidence of Breast Cancer in Piedmont: 1979–1981

A population-based survey of histologically diagnosed breast cancer was carried out among residents in Piedmont. A total of 5267 incident cases occurring in 1979–1981 was collected, corresponding to an age-standardized (on the world population) incidence rate of 49.5/100,000 per year. Rates (standardized on the population of Piedmont in 1981) were highest in the city of Torino (112.4/100,000 per year) and lowest in the province of Cuneo (67.5), whereas in the other provinces they ranged between 85.3 and 90.0. Estimation of rates in the 54 Local Health Authorities of Piedmont detected up to 2-fold differences between adjacent areas. A correlation was found between rates and size of the population of town of residence. Comparison with age-specific incidence rates from the Cancer Registry of the nearby province of Varese suggested a loss of nonhistologically confirmed cases selectively in older age groups. The distribution of cases diagnosed in 1979 by histologic type is presented. The proportion of diagnoses reported in terms which were consistent with the 1978 WHO Histological Typing of Breast Tumours was 61.3%. It was highest among cases identified in Pathology Services located in University Hospitals and/or diagnosing more than 50 breast cancers per year.

Analysis of Trends in Cancer Mortality in Italy 1951-1978; The Effects of Age, Period of Birth, and Period of Death

We describe trends in cancer mortality in Italy between 1951 and 1978 for 6 different sites (esophagus, lung, breast, cervix uteri, testis, and bladder) as well as all cancers. This is done using a statistical model which separates the contributions associated with age, period of birth and period of death. The results are related to equivalent analyses in England and Wales and also to trends in lifestyle in Italy (alcohol consumption, cigarette consumption, birth rates).

Descriptive Epidemiology of Breast Cancer in the City and Province of Torino

Between 1950–54 and 1970–74 the mortality rates from breast cancer showed a 35 % increase in Italy. In the city of Torino, an increase occurred between 1950–54 and 1960–64 but not in the following 10-year period. These trends were confirmed by the analysis of rates by cohorts of birth. In the province of Torino, between 1960–64 and 1970–74 the increase in breast cancer death rates was far lower than in the other provinces of Piedmont. It is suggested that the peculiar patterns in the city and in the province of Torino reflect qualitative changes of lifestyle brought about by the conspicous immigration from southern Italy during the sixties.

Birth cohort, time, and age effects in Italian cancer mortality

Italian death certification data from 1955 to 1979 for total cancer mortality and 30 cancer sites in the population aged 25 to 74, were analyzed using a log-linear Poisson model to isolate the effects of birth cohort, calendar period of death, and age. The most frequent cohort pattern was characterized by increases up to the generations born between 1920 and 1930, followed by stabilization or a slight decrease. This pattern was evident for total cancer mortality in men, and for several common sites, including larynx, lung, esophagus, bladder, female breast, and ovary. Only four sites (pancreas, pleura, intestines in both sexes, and kidney in men) showed cohort values still rising in more recent generations. Stable cohort and period of death curves were observed for cancers of the prostate and testis, whereas trends were steadily going down for neoplasms of the stomach, and (cervix) uteri. Finally, there were a few discontinuous trends (e.g., in the case of brain neoplasms, leukemias, and lymphomas), which probably reflect different effects of improvements in diagnosis and/or treatment. Period of death values increased for lung and other tobacco related sites (chiefly in males) and, up to the early 1970s, for a few other common sites, including intestines, and the female breast. Downward trends over the calendar period were evident for cancers of the stomach and of the (cervix) uteri. Therefore, total cancer mortality trends over the calendar period of death were moderately increasing for men, and slightly decreasing for women.

Breast Cancer Risk Factors in Italian Women: A Multicentric Case-Control Study

To evaluate the importance of several risk factors for breast cancer in the Italian female population, a large multicentric case-control study was conducted in 10 breast clinics in Italy. The study included 1,556 women affected by breast cancer, histologically and/or cytologically confirmed. Controls were 1,505 women admitted to a hospital in the same town, matched with cases for residence and with the same age distribution of the Italian female population. The risk factors considered in this study were family history of breast cancer, reproductive history, height and weight, use of oral contraceptives, other hormonal therapies and smoking history. The results of this study confirm the significant role of a positive family history of breast cancer (RR = 2.37); the relative risk was even higher when a first-degree relative was affected or the breast cancer was bilateral. The analysis of the reproductive history showed a significant trend of increasing risk with increasing age at first birth and, although less evident, with increasing number of children. Quetelet's index (kg/m–2) was positively correlated with breast cancer risk, mostly in postmenopausal women. Among other studied factors, only late age at menopause confirmed an increased risk for breast cancer, whereas age at menarche, use of oral contraceptives and smoking histories did not show any significant correlation with breast cancer risk. These results are in substantial agreement with other international studies, but represent an interesting contribution to studies about the Italian female population.