Validation of a new integrated prognostic score to predict non-relapse mortality in patients undergoing reduced-intensity conditioning allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation

Prediction of Nonrelapse Mortality in Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia and Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia Receiving Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation With Posttransplantation Cyclophosphamide-based Graft Versus Host Disease Prophylaxis

Graft versus host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis with posttransplantation cyclophosphamide (PTCY) has been established to reduce severe GVHD, and thereby potentially reducing nonrelapse mortality (NRM) after allogeneic stem cell transplantation (alloSCT). We evaluated the predictive capacity of established NRM-risk scores in patients receiving PTCY-based GVHD prophylaxis, and subsequently developed and validated a novel PTCY-specific NRM-risk model. Adult patients (n = 1861) with AML or ALL in first complete remission who received alloSCT with PTCY-based GVHD prophylaxis were included. The PTCY-risk score was developed using multivariable Fine and Gray regression, selecting parameters from the hematopoietic cell transplantation-comorbidity index (HCT-CI) and European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) score with a subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) of ≥1.2 for 2-year NRM in the training set (70% split), which was validated in the test set (30%). The performance of the EBMT score, HCT-CI, and integrated EBMT score was relatively poor for discriminating 2-year NRM (c-statistic 51.7%, 56.6%, and 59.2%, respectively). The PTCY-risk score included 10 variables which were collapsed in 3 risk groups estimating 2-year NRM of 11% ± 2%, 19% ± 2%, and 36% ± 3% (training set, c-statistic 64%), and 11% ± 2%, 18% ± 3%, and 31% ± 5% (test set, c-statistic 63%), which also translated into different overall survival. Collectively, we developed an NRM-risk score for acute leukemia patients receiving PTCY that better predicted 2-year NRM compared with existing models, which might be applicable to the specific toxicities of high-dose cyclophosphamide.

Baseline Renal Function and Albumin are Powerful Predictors for Allogeneic Transplantation-Related Mortality

Biomarkers measured in blood chemistry before allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) may reflect patients' physiological status. We hypothesized that selected markers are predictive for nonrelapse mortality (NRM) following transplantation and could contribute to risk assessment. We investigated the value of pre-HSCT albumin, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and alkaline phosphatase (AlkP) in predicting NRM. We retrospectively analyzed clinical and laboratory data from 1217 patients receiving a first HSCT in 2 European centers between 2003 and 2015. Transplantation indications and conditioning regimens were diverse. Patients had a median age of 55 years and hematopoietic cell transplantation comorbidity index (HCT-CI) scores of 0 (24%), 1 to 2 (39%), and ≥3 (37%). Cutoffs of eGFR <60 mL/min, albumin <3.5 g/dL, and AlkP >180 IU/L corresponded with 8.8%, 8.3%, and 6.5% of the patients, respectively. eGFR and albumin were associated with increased risk and higher cumulative incidence of day-100, 1-year, and 2-year NRM, both as continuous or categorized variables. A similar pattern was observed for AlkP, except for day-100 NRM. In multivariable analyses, eGFR and albumin were consistently among the top risk factors for early and late-term NRM, abrogating the role of age. Prediction models for day-100, 1-year, and 2-year NRM based only on HCT-CI resulted in c-statistics of .565, .575, and .577, respectively. Addition of both biomarkers increased c-statistics for day-100, 1-year, and 2-year NRM to .651, .633, and .624, respectively. Albumin and eGFR are prognostic biomarkers for NRM after HSCT and improve the discriminative power of the HCT-CI.