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Wang X, Wang X, Li Y, Wu C, Zhao B, Peng M, Chen W, Wang C. Response of Extremely Small Populations to Climate Change-A Case of Trachycarpus nanus in Yunnan, China. BIOLOGY 2024; 13:240. [PMID: 38666852 PMCID: PMC11048604 DOI: 10.3390/biology13040240] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2024] [Revised: 04/01/2024] [Accepted: 04/02/2024] [Indexed: 04/28/2024]
Abstract
Climate change affects the geographical distribution of plant species. Rare Trachycarpus nanus with a narrow distribution range, high medicinal value and extremely small population is facing increasing extinction risks under global climate change. In this study, 96 recorded occurrences and 23 environmental factors are used to predict the potential suitable area of T. nanus based on the optimized MaxEnt (3.4.4) model and ArcGIS (10.7) software. The results show that when the parameters are FC = LQ and RM = 1, the MaxEnt model is optimal and AUC = 0.946. The distribution patterns were predicted in the past, present, and four future phases, i.e., 2021-2040 (2030), 2041-2060 (2050), 2061-2080 (2070), and 2081-2100 (2090). The main factors are the annual precipitation (bio12), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), temperature seasonality (bio4), precipitation of the wettest quarter (bio16), and isothermality (bio3). The potential distribution of T. nanus is primarily concentrated in central Chuxiong, encompassing a total potential suitable area of 5.65 × 104 km2. In historical periods, the total habitat area is smaller than that in the present. In the future, the potential suitable area is generally increased. The centroid analysis shows that T. nanus will move to a high-altitude area and to the southeast. But its dispersal capacity may not keep up with the climate change rate. Therefore, additional protection sites for this species should be appropriately established and the habitat connectivity should be enhanced.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaofan Wang
- Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China; (X.W.); (Y.L.); (B.Z.); (M.P.)
- College of Ecology and Environment, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China;
- Southwest United Graduate School, Yunnan University, Kunming 650092, China; (C.W.); (W.C.)
| | - Xuhong Wang
- College of Ecology and Environment, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China;
| | - Yun Li
- Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China; (X.W.); (Y.L.); (B.Z.); (M.P.)
- College of Ecology and Environment, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China;
| | - Changhao Wu
- Southwest United Graduate School, Yunnan University, Kunming 650092, China; (C.W.); (W.C.)
| | - Biao Zhao
- Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China; (X.W.); (Y.L.); (B.Z.); (M.P.)
- College of Ecology and Environment, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China;
| | - Mingchun Peng
- Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China; (X.W.); (Y.L.); (B.Z.); (M.P.)
- College of Ecology and Environment, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China;
| | - Wen Chen
- Southwest United Graduate School, Yunnan University, Kunming 650092, China; (C.W.); (W.C.)
| | - Chongyun Wang
- Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China; (X.W.); (Y.L.); (B.Z.); (M.P.)
- College of Ecology and Environment, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, China;
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