Response to 'Inhibitory effects of maternal smoking on the development of severe retinopathy of prematurity'

Maternal smoking as an independent risk factor for the development of severe retinopathy of prematurity in very preterm infants

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a severe neonatal complication potentially leading to visual impairment and blindness. Known risk factors include preterm birth, low birth weight and respiratory support. Limited and contradictory data exist on the risk of maternal smoking during pregnancy on the development of ROP. This study aims to investigate smoking as an independent risk factor for the development of severe ROP (≥stage 3).

SUBJECTS/METHODS

This is a single centre retrospective case-control study of prospectively collected clinical data of infants born before 32 weeks of gestation between 2001 and 2012 at a tertiary care university hospital. The association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and the development of severe ROP was analyzed by multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

In total, n = 751 infants born < 32 weeks of gestation were included in this study. In total, 52.9% (n = 397) were diagnosed with ROP and 10.8% (n = 81) developed ROP ≥ stage 3. In total, 8.4% (n = 63) mothers presented with a history of smoking during pregnancy, which was associated to a higher rate of ROP (OR 2.59, 95% CI 1.10-6.12). Low gestational age, low birth weight and prolonged respiratory support were confirmed as independent risk factors for the development of severe ROP.

CONCLUSIONS

To date, this is the largest study evaluating the effect of maternal smoking on the development of ROP. Maternal smoking during pregnancy is identified as an independent risk factor for the development of severe ROP in preterm infants born < 32 weeks of gestation.

Deconstructing the smoking-preeclampsia paradox through a counterfactual framework

Although smoking during pregnancy may lead to many adverse outcomes, numerous studies have reported a paradoxical inverse association between maternal cigarette smoking during pregnancy and preeclampsia. Using a counterfactual framework we aimed to explore the structure of this paradox as being a consequence of selection bias. Using a case-control study nested in the Icelandic Birth Registry (1309 women), we show how this selection bias can be explored and corrected for. Cases were defined as any case of pregnancy induced hypertension or preeclampsia occurring after 20 weeks' gestation and controls as normotensive mothers who gave birth in the same year. First, we used directed acyclic graphs to illustrate the common bias structure. Second, we used classical logistic regression and mediation analytic methods for dichotomous outcomes to explore the structure of the bias. Lastly, we performed both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to estimate the amount of bias due to an uncontrolled confounder and corrected for it. The biased effect of smoking was estimated to reduce the odds of preeclampsia by 28 % (OR 0.72, 95 %CI 0.52, 0.99) and after stratification by gestational age at delivery (<37 vs. ≥37 gestation weeks) by 75 % (OR 0.25, 95 %CI 0.10, 0.68). In a mediation analysis, the natural indirect effect showed and OR > 1, revealing the structure of the paradox. The bias-adjusted estimation of the smoking effect on preeclampsia showed an OR of 1.22 (95 %CI 0.41, 6.53). The smoking-preeclampsia paradox appears to be an example of (1) selection bias most likely caused by studying cases prevalent at birth rather than all incident cases from conception in a pregnancy cohort, (2) omitting important confounders associated with both smoking and preeclampsia (preventing the outcome to develop) and (3) controlling for a collider (gestation weeks at delivery). Future studies need to consider these aspects when studying and interpreting the association between smoking and pregnancy outcomes.