Prediction of non-relapse mortality in recipients of reduced intensity conditioning allogeneic stem cell transplantation with AML in first complete remission

Longitudinal clinical data improve survival prediction after hematopoietic cell transplantation using machine learning

ABSTRACT

Serial prognostic evaluation after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) might help identify patients at high risk of lethal organ dysfunction. Current prediction algorithms based on models that do not incorporate changes to patients' clinical condition after allo-HCT have limited predictive ability. We developed and validated a robust risk-prediction algorithm to predict short- and long-term survival after allo-HCT in pediatric patients that includes baseline biological variables and changes in the patients' clinical status after allo-HCT. The model was developed using clinical data from children and young adults treated at a single academic quaternary-care referral center. The model was created using a randomly split training data set (70% of the cohort), internally validated (remaining 30% of the cohort) and then externally validated on patient data from another tertiary-care referral center. Repeated clinical measurements performed from 30 days before allo-HCT to 30 days afterwards were extracted from the electronic medical record and incorporated into the model to predict survival at 100 days, 1 year, and 2 years after allo-HCT. Naïve-Bayes machine learning models incorporating longitudinal data were significantly better than models constructed from baseline variables alone at predicting whether patients would be alive or deceased at the given time points. This proof-of-concept study demonstrates that unlike traditional prognostic tools that use fixed variables for risk assessment, incorporating dynamic variability using clinical and laboratory data improves the prediction of mortality in patients undergoing allo-HCT.

The sum of the parts: what we can and cannot learn from comorbidity scores in allogeneic transplantation

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) requires the comprehensive evaluation of patients across multiple dimensions. Among the factors considered, comorbidities hold great significance in the pretransplant assessment. As many as 40% of alloHCT recipients will have a high burden of comorbidities in contemporary cohorts. To ensure a standardized evaluation, several comorbidity scores have been developed; however, they exhibit variations in properties and performance. This review examines the strengths and weaknesses associated with these comorbidity scores, critically appraising these models and proposing a framework for their application in considering the alloHCT candidate. Furthermore, we introduce the concept that comorbidities may have specific effects depending on the chosen transplantation approach and outline the findings of key studies that consider the impact of individual comorbidities on alloHCT outcomes. We suggest that a personalized transplantation approach should not rely solely on the overall burden of comorbidities but should also take into account the individual comorbidities themselves, along with other patient, disease, and transplantation-related factors.

Comorbidities in transplant recipients with acute myeloid leukemia receiving low-intensity conditioning regimens: an ALWP EBMT study

Older age and a high burden of comorbidities often drive the selection of low-intensity conditioning regimens in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation recipients. However, the impact of comorbidities in the low-intensity conditioning setting is unclear. We sought to determine the contribution of individual comorbidities and their cumulative burden on the risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) among patients receiving low-intensity regimens. In a retrospective analysis of adults (≥18 years) who underwent transplantation for acute myeloid leukemia in the first complete remission between 2008 and 2018, we studied recipients of low-intensity regimens as defined by the transplantation conditioning intensity (TCI) scale. Multivariable Cox models were constructed to study associations of comorbidities with NRM. Comorbidities identified as putative risk factors in the low-TCI setting were included in combined multivariable regression models assessed for overall survival, NRM, and relapse. A total of 1663 patients with a median age of 61 years received low-TCI regimens. Cardiac comorbidity (including arrhythmia/valvular disease) and psychiatric disease were associated with increased NRM risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-2.09 and HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.02-2.82, respectively). Moderate pulmonary dysfunction, though prevalent, was not associated with increased NRM. In a combined model, cardiac, psychiatric, renal, and inflammatory bowel diseases were independently associated with adverse transplantation outcomes. These findings may inform patient and regimen selection and reinforce the need for further investigation of cardioprotective transplantation approaches.

Prediction of Nonrelapse Mortality in Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia and Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia Receiving Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation With Posttransplantation Cyclophosphamide-based Graft Versus Host Disease Prophylaxis

Graft versus host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis with posttransplantation cyclophosphamide (PTCY) has been established to reduce severe GVHD, and thereby potentially reducing nonrelapse mortality (NRM) after allogeneic stem cell transplantation (alloSCT). We evaluated the predictive capacity of established NRM-risk scores in patients receiving PTCY-based GVHD prophylaxis, and subsequently developed and validated a novel PTCY-specific NRM-risk model. Adult patients (n = 1861) with AML or ALL in first complete remission who received alloSCT with PTCY-based GVHD prophylaxis were included. The PTCY-risk score was developed using multivariable Fine and Gray regression, selecting parameters from the hematopoietic cell transplantation-comorbidity index (HCT-CI) and European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) score with a subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) of ≥1.2 for 2-year NRM in the training set (70% split), which was validated in the test set (30%). The performance of the EBMT score, HCT-CI, and integrated EBMT score was relatively poor for discriminating 2-year NRM (c-statistic 51.7%, 56.6%, and 59.2%, respectively). The PTCY-risk score included 10 variables which were collapsed in 3 risk groups estimating 2-year NRM of 11% ± 2%, 19% ± 2%, and 36% ± 3% (training set, c-statistic 64%), and 11% ± 2%, 18% ± 3%, and 31% ± 5% (test set, c-statistic 63%), which also translated into different overall survival. Collectively, we developed an NRM-risk score for acute leukemia patients receiving PTCY that better predicted 2-year NRM compared with existing models, which might be applicable to the specific toxicities of high-dose cyclophosphamide.

A high hematopoietic cell transplantation comorbidity Index (HCT-CI) does not impair outcomes after non-myeloablative allogeneic stem cell transplantation in acute myeloid leukemia patients 60 years or older

For most acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients an allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) offers the highest chance of cure. The introduction of less toxic non-myeloablative conditioning (NMA) regimes enabled older and/or comorbid patients to be consolidated with an allogeneic HSCT. While the hematopoietic cell transplantation comorbidity index (HCT-CI) predicted outcomes in many younger patient cohorts its impact in older AML patients receiving NMA-HSCT remains unknown. Here we analyzed 289 AML patients 60 years or older (median age 66, range 60-77 years) undergoing NMA-HSCT (2 or 3 Gray total body irradiation and 3 days of fludarabine 30 mg/m²). HCT-CI risk was low, intermediate, or high in 36%, 31%, and 33% of patients, respectively. Non-relapse mortality (NRM), cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR), and overall survival (OS) did not differ between HCT-CI groups. The HCT-CI also did not impact outcomes when considering the European LeukemiaNet 2017 risk at diagnosis or the measurable residual disease (MRD) status at HSCT. Notably, MRD-negative older NMA-transplanted AML patients had a beneficial OS of 49% after 5 years. Since a higher HCT-CI did not impair outcomes, age or comorbidities per se should not impede NMA-HSCT, presenting a feasible consolidation option for this group of AML patients.

Applicability of the acute leukemia (AL) - EBMT score as a prognostic model for allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: a single-center, prospective, cohort study at a reference transplant center in Brazil

INTRODUCTION

The Acute Leukemia-European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (AL-EBMT) risk score was recently developed and validated by Shouval et al. OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of this score in predicting the 2-year overall survival (OS-2), leukemia-free survival (LFS-2) and transplant-related mortality (TRM) in acute leukemia (AL) adult patients undergoing a first allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) at a transplant center in Brazil.

METHODS

In this prospective, cohort study, we used the formula published by Shouval et al. to calculate the AL-EBMT score and stratify patients into three risk categories.

RESULTS

A total of 79 patients transplanted between 2008 and 2018 were analyzed. The median age was 38 years. Acute myeloid leukemia was the most common diagnosis (68%). Almost a quarter of the cases were at an advanced stage. All hematopoietic stem cell transplantations (HSCTs) were human leukocyte antigen-matched (HLA-matched) and the majority used familial donors (77%). Myeloablative conditioning was used in 92% of the cases. Stratification according to the AL-EBMT score into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups yielded the following results: 40%, 12% and 47% of the cases, respectively. The high scoring group was associated with a hazard ratio of 2.1 (p = 0.007), 2.1 (p = 0.009) and 2.47 (p = 0.01) for the 2-year OS, LFS and TRM, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This study supports the ability of the AL-EBMT score to reasonably predict the 2-year post-transplant OS, LFS and TRM and to discriminate between risk categories in adult patients with AL, thus confirming its usefulness in clinical decision-making in this setting. Larger, multicenter studies may further help confirm these findings.

Evaluating immune response and metabolic related biomarkers pre-allogenic hematopoietic stem cell transplant in acute myeloid leukemia

Although hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT) is the only curative treatment for acute myeloid leukemia (AML), it is associated with significant treatment related morbidity and mortality. There is great need for predictive biomarkers associated with overall survival (OS) and clinical outcomes. We hypothesized that circulating metabolic, inflammatory, and immune molecules have potential as predictive biomarkers for AML patients who receive HCT treatment. This retrospective study was designed with an exploratory approach to comprehensively characterize immune, inflammatory, and metabolomic biomarkers. We identified patients with AML who underwent HCT and had existing baseline plasma samples. Using those samples (n = 34), we studied 65 blood based metabolomic and 61 immune/inflammatory related biomarkers, comparing patients with either long-term OS (≥ 3 years) or short-term OS (OS ≤ 1 years). We also compared the immune/inflammatory response and metabolomic biomarkers in younger vs. older AML patients (≤30 years vs. ≥ 55 years old). In addition, the biomarker profiles were analyzed for their association with clinical outcomes, namely OS, chronic graft versus host disease (cGVHD), acute graft versus host disease (aGVHD), infection and relapse. Several baseline biomarkers were elevated in older versus younger patients, and baseline levels were lower for three markers (IL13, SAA, CRP) in patients with OS ≥ 3 years. We also identified immune/inflammatory response markers associated with aGVHD (IL-9, Eotaxin-3), cGVHD (Flt-1), infection (D-dimer), or relapse (IL-17D, bFGF, Eotaxin-3). Evaluation of metabolic markers demonstrated higher baseline levels of medium- and long-chain acylcarnitines (AC) in older patients, association with aGVHD (lactate, long-chain AC), and cGVHD (medium-chain AC). These differentially expressed profiles merit further evaluation as predictive biomarkers.

The improvement in overall survival from unrelated donor transplantation in Australia and New Zealand is driven by a reduction in non-relapse mortality: A study from the ABMTRR

Unrelated donors (UDs) are the commonest source for allogeneic transplantation (alloSCT), with higher non-relapse mortality (NRM) than siblings. We analyzed data from the Australasian Bone Marrow Transplant Recipient Registry from adults receiving a first UD alloSCT during 2001-2015, to determine whether and how NRM has changed. Predictors of outcome were determined using cox regression, accounting for time-interactions and competing risks. A total of 2308 patients met inclusion criteria. Changes over time included increasing age, utilization of peripheral blood cells, reduced intensity conditioning, and T-cell depletion. Three-year OS increased significantly from 44% in 2001-2005 to 58% in 2011-2015 (p < 0.001). This was attributed to a reduction in NRM from 35% to 24% (p < 0.001) with no change in relapse. Factors associated with increased NRM included age, male sex, CMV seropositivity, HLA mismatch, transplant more than 6 months from diagnosis, and T-cell depletion when administered during 2001-2005. Survival following UD SCT has improved by almost 15% over the past decade, driven by improvements in NRM. This has occurred despite increasing recipient age and appears to be due to better donor selection, reduced delays to transplantation, and improved prevention and management of GVHD.

Development of a Nomogram for Predicting the Cumulative Incidence of Disease Recurrence of AML After Allo-HSCT

Using targeted exome sequencing, we studied correlations between mutations at diagnosis and transplant outcomes in 332 subjects with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) receiving allotransplantation. A total of 299 patients (299/332, 90.1%) had at least one oncogenic point mutation. In multivariable analyses, pretransplant disease status, minimal residual disease (MRD) before transplantation (pre-MRD), cytogenetic risk classification, and TP53 and FLT3-ITD^{high ratio} mutations were independent risk factors for AML recurrence after allotransplantation (p < 0.05). A nomogram for the cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR) that integrated all the predictors in the multivariable model was then constructed, and the concordance index (C-index) values at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months for CIR prediction were 0.754, 0.730, 0.715, and 0.690, respectively. Moreover, calibration plots showed good agreements between the actual observation and the nomogram prediction for the 6, 12, 18, and 24 months posttransplantation CIR in the internal validation. The integrated calibration index (ICI) values were 0.008, 0.055, 0.094, and 0.136 at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months posttransplantation, respectively. With a median cutoff score of 9.73 from the nomogram, all patients could be divided into two groups, and the differences in 2-year CIR, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) between these two groups were significant (p < 0.05). Taken together, the results of our study indicate that gene mutations could help to predict the outcomes of patients with AML receiving allotransplantation.

Impact of risk scores in outcome of patients with myeloid neoplasms after allogeneic stem cell transplant

BACKGROUND

The main causes of failure of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-transplant) in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are relapse and transplant-related mortality. Different scores have been designed to predict the prognosis of these patients. The objective of this study was to assess which score or combination has better outcome predictive capacity.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of patients with AML and MDS who received a first peripheral blood allo-transplant in a single center, between December 2001 and October 2019. Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Comorbidity Index (HCT-CI), European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) and Disease Risk Index (DRI) scores were calculated. For each score and for the HCT-CI/DRI and HCT-CI/EBMT combinations, overall survival (OS), cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR), non-relapse-related mortality (NRM), and graft versus host disease-free relapse-free survival (GRFS) were analyzed.

RESULTS

175 patients were evaluated. With a median (range) follow-up of 3.96 (0.32-17.22) years, the 5-year probabilities (95% CI) of OS, CIR, NRM, and GRFS were 36% (28%-44%), 28% (21%-35%), 38% (30%-46%) and 24% (17%-31%), respectively. For OS, only the DRI score selected two groups with statistically significant differences (DRI 0-1: 41% vs. DRI ≥2: 24%; p=0.011). The combination of DRI 0-1 and HCT-CI 0-2 showed OS probabilities of 45% vs. 26% for those with DRI 0-1 and HCT-CI ≥3; p=0.041.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with AML and MDS submitted to allo-transplant, the combination of HCT-CI and DRI scores provided the best stratification for OS.

Comparison of Risk Scoring Systems in HLA-Matched Related Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Objective

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT) is a potentially curative treatment of choice for many hematological diseases. However, there are some transplantation-related risks. Predicting the risk-benefit ratio prior to AHSCT facilitates the choice of conditioning regimens and posttransplant follow-up. Hence, many risk models have been developed. The aim of the present study was to compare 6 different risk models that are clinically used.

Materials and Methods

A total of 259 patients were enrolled in this study. The European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT), Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Comorbidity Index (HCT-CI), Age-Adjusted Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Comorbidity Index (HCT-CI-Age), revised Pretransplant Assessment of Mortality (rPAM), Acute Leukemia-EBMT (AL-EBMT), and Disease Risk Index (DRI) risk models were applied retrospectively.

Results

The AL-EBMT, HCT-CI, and HCT-CI-Age scoring systems were found to be predictive for 2-year overall survival (OS) and 2-year non-relapse mortality (NRM) (2-year OS: AL-EBMT, reference vs. score 8.5-10, HR: 1.3, p=0.035; AL-EBMT, reference vs. score >10, HR: 3.8, p=0.001; HCT-CI: reference vs. score 1-2, HR: 1.4, p=0.018; HCT-CI: reference vs. score ≥3, HR: 2.5, p<0.001; HCT-CI-Age: reference vs. score 1-2, HR: 1.3, p<0.001; HCT-CI-Age: reference vs. score ≥3, HR: 3.2, p<0.001) (2-year NRM: AL-EBMT: reference vs. score 8.5-10, HR: 1.61, p<0.001; AL-EBMT: reference vs. score >10, HR: 3.3, p<0.001; HCT-CI: reference vs. score 1-2, HR: 1.3, p=0.028; HCT-CI: reference vs. score ≥3, HR: 2.3, p=0.011; HCT-CI-Age: reference vs. score 1-2, HR: 1.3, p=0.01; HCT-CI-Age: reference vs. score ≥3, HR: 2.4, p=0.003). In terms of the Kaplan-Meier estimates of 2-year OS and 2-year NRM, the risk scoring system with the highest predictive power was found to be AL-EBMT (2-year AUC: 0.59 and 0.60, respectively). The other scores were not found to be predictive for 2-year OS and NRM.

Conclusion

In the present study at our bone marrow and stem cell transplant center, it has been demonstrated that the HCT-CI, HCT-CI-Age, and AL-EBMT are good predictors of 2-year NRM and OS.

The evolving concept of indications for allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation during first complete remission of acute myeloid leukemia

The long-standing debate of whether patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) should proceed to allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) during first complete remission (CR1) remains unsettled. Although allogeneic HCT during CR1 used to be recommended for those with intermediate or poor cytogenetics if they had a matched sibling donor, the concept of indications for allogeneic HCT during CR1 has been evolving by virtue of advances in understanding of the molecular pathogenesis of AML and innovations in transplantation practice attained over the last few decades. The incorporation of molecular profiles of leukemia has been shown to contribute to further refinements of risk classification that had previously relied mostly on cytogenetics, while the progress in transplantation procedures has made it possible to perform transplantations more safely even for patients without a matched sibling donor. These significant changes have underpinned the need to reappraise indications for allogeneic HCT during CR1 of AML. Improvements in clinical applications of genetic and measurable residual disease information as well as in transplantation technology are expected to further refine indications for allogeneic HCT during CR1, and thus promote an individualized approach for the treatment of AML.

Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in the Treatment of Newly Diagnosed Adult Acute Myeloid Leukemia: An Evidence-Based Review from the American Society of Transplantation and Cellular Therapy

The role of hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) in the management of newly diagnosed adult acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is reviewed and critically evaluated in this evidence-based review. An AML expert panel, consisting of both transplant and nontransplant experts, was invited to develop clinically relevant frequently asked questions covering disease- and HCT-related topics. A systematic literature review was conducted to generate core recommendations that were graded based on the quality and strength of underlying evidence based on the standardized criteria established by the American Society of Transplantation and Cellular Therapy Steering Committee for evidence-based reviews. Allogeneic HCT offers a survival benefit in patients with intermediate- and high-risk AML and is currently a part of standard clinical care. We recommend the preferential use of myeloablative conditioning in eligible patients. A haploidentical related donor marrow graft is preferred over a cord blood unit in the absence of a fully HLA-matched donor. The evolving role of allogeneic HCT in the context of measurable residual disease monitoring and recent therapeutic advances in AML with regards to maintenance therapy after HCT are also discussed.

The Implementation of Mass Spectrometry-Based Proteomics Workflows in Clinical Routines of Acute Myeloid Leukemia: Applicability and Perspectives

With the current reproducibility of proteome preparation workflows along with the speed and sensitivity of the mass spectrometers, the transition of the mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics technology from biomarker discovery to clinical implementation is under appraisal in the biomedicine community. Therefore, this technology might be implemented soon to detect well-known biomarkers in cancers and other diseases. Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is an aggressive heterogeneous malignancy that requires intensive treatment to cure the patient. Leukemia relapse is still a major challenge even for patients who have favorable genetic abnormalities. MS-based proteomics could be of great help to both describe the proteome changes of individual patients and identify biomarkers that might encourage specific treatments or clinical strategies. Herein, we will review the advances and availability of the MS-based proteomics strategies that could already be used in clinical proteomics. However, the heterogeneity of complex diseases as AML requires consensus to recognize AML biomarkers and to establish MS-based workflows that allow their unbiased identification and quantification. Although our literature review appears promising towards the utilization of MS-based proteomics in clinical AML in a near future, major efforts are required to validate AML biomarkers and agree on clinically approved workflows.

Predicting non-relapse mortality following allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation during first remission of acute myeloid leukemia

The aim of this study was to develop a comprehensive system for predicting non-relapse mortality after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) during first complete remission (CR) of acute myeloid leukemia (AML). After dividing 2344 eligible patients randomly into a training set and a validation set, we first identified and scored five parameters, that is, age, sex, performance status, HCT-comorbidity index (HCT-CI), and donor type, on the basis of their impact on non-relapse mortality for patients in the training set. The non-relapse mortality-J (NRM-J) index using the sum of these scores was then applied to patients in the validation set, resulting in a clear differentiation of non-relapse mortality, with expected 2-year rates of 11%, 16%, 27%, and 33%, respectively (P < 0.001). The estimated c-statistic was 0.67, which was significantly higher than that of the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation score (0.60, P = 0.002) and the HCT-CI (0.57, P < 0.001). The NRM-J index showed a significant association with overall survival, but not with relapse. Our findings demonstrate that the NRM-J index is useful for predicting post-transplant non-relapse mortality for patients with AML in first CR, for whom the decision of whether to perform allogeneic HCT is critical.

External validation and comparison of multiple prognostic scores in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

Clinical decisions in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) are supported by the use of prognostic scores for outcome prediction. Scores vary in their features and in the composition of development cohorts. We sought to externally validate and compare the performance of 8 commonly applied scoring systems on a cohort of allo-HSCT recipients. Among 528 patients studied, acute myeloid leukemia was the leading transplant indication (44%) and 46% of patients had a matched sibling donor. Most models successfully grouped patients into higher and lower risk strata, supporting their use for risk classification. However, discrimination varied (2-year overall survival area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]: revised Pretransplantation Assessment of Mortality [rPAM], 0.64; PAM, 0.63; revised Disease Risk Index [rDRI], 0.62; Endothelial Activation and Stress Index [EASIx], 0.60; combined European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation [EBMT]/Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation-specific Comorbidity Index [HCT-CI], 0.58; EBMT, 0.58; Comorbidity-Age, 0.58; HCT-CI, 0.55); AUC ranges from 0.5 (random) to 1.0 (perfect prediction). rPAM and PAM, which had the greatest predictive capacity across all outcomes, are comprehensive models including patient, disease, and transplantation information. Interestingly, EASIx, a biomarker-driven model, had comparable performance for nonrelapse mortality (NRM; 2-year AUC, 0.65) but no predictive value for relapse (2-year AUC, 0.53). Overall, allo-HSCT prognostic systems may be useful for risk stratification, but individual prediction remains a challenge, as reflected by the scores' limited discriminative capacity.

Long-term results of reduced-intensity conditioning allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for older patients with acute myeloid leukemia: a retrospective analysis of 10-year follow-up data

The long-term outcomes of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) with reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) remain inconclusive. To address this issue, we conducted a nationwide registry-based study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) age 50 years or older who underwent allogeneic HCT in complete remission using RIC (n = 284) or myeloablative conditioning (MAC, n = 190) between 2002 and 2007. The median follow-up period for surviving patients was 10.1 years for RIC recipients and 10.4 years for MAC recipients. The 10-year probabilities of overall survival, relapse, and non-relapse mortality were 36.4%, 30.0%, and 35.7% for RIC recipients, and 39.8%, 26.3%, and 35.5% for MAC recipients, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that the conditioning intensity did not affect overall mortality (P = 0.184), relapse (P = 0.904), or non-relapse mortality (P = 0.387). For the 218 patients qualifying for propensity score-matched pairing (109 pairs), RIC was found to be associated with similar survival (P = 0.095) and relapse (P = 0.467), and significantly lower non-relapse mortality (P = 0.046) compared with MAC. Our results confirm the long-term efficacy of RIC allogeneic HCT for older patients with AML and mitigate concerns over an increase in late relapse.

Predictive value of disease risk comorbidity index for overall survival after allogeneic hematopoietic transplantation

Allogeneic hematologic cell transplantation (alloHCT) is the only curative therapy for many adults with hematological malignancies. However, it can be associated with substantial risks of morbidity and mortality that are dependent on patient comorbidity- or disease risk-related factors. Several pretransplantation prognostic scoring systems have been developed to estimate survival of patients undergoing alloHCT; however, there is significant interstudy variability in the predictive capacity of these assessment tools. We tested the prognostic capability of a composite scoring system including the disease risk index and HCT comorbidity index (DRCI). The DRCI scoring system was applied pretransplantation to determine whether it predicted clinical outcomes of 959 adult patients with hematological malignancies undergoing alloHCT from 2000 to 2013 at the University of Minnesota. The DRCI score categorized patients into 6 risk groups, with 2-year overall survival ranging between 74% for the very low-risk DRCI group and 34% for the very high-risk DRCI group. In multiple regression analyses adjusted for patient age and donor type, the risk of overall mortality independently increased as the DRCI score increased. Additionally, the DRCI score independently predicted risk of relapse, disease-free survival, and graft-versus-host disease-free/relapse-free survival. Our data demonstrate that the pretransplantation DRCI scoring system predicts outcomes after alloHCT and can be used to guide clinical decision making for patients considering alloHCT.

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation compared to chemotherapy consolidation in older acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients 60-75 years in first complete remission (CR1): an alliance (A151509), SWOG, ECOG-ACRIN, and CIBMTR study

The preferred post-remission therapy for older patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in first complete remission (CR1) remains uncertain. In this retrospective, multicenter study, we compared the outcomes for older AML patients (age 60-77 years) receiving allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) (n = 431) with those treated on prospective National Clinical Trials Network induction and nontransplantation chemotherapy (CT) consolidation trials (n = 211). AlloHCT patients were younger (median age: 64.2 versus 67.9 years, p < 0.001), but more frequently had high-risk AML (high WBC, secondary AML, and unfavorable cytogenetics). Overall survival (OS) was worse in alloHCT during the first 9 months after CR1 (HR = 1.52, p = 0.02), but was significantly better thereafter (HR = 0.53, p < 0.0001) relative to CT. Treatment-related mortality (TRM) following HCT was worse in the first 9 months (HR = 2.8, 95% CI: 1.5-5.2, p = 0.0009), while post-HCT relapse was significantly less frequent beyond 9 months (HR = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.29-0.61, p < 0.0001). Despite higher early TRM, alloHCT recipients had superior long-term OS [29% (24-34%) versus CT 13.8% (9-21%) at 5 years]. Although this is a retrospective analysis with potential biases, it indicates that alloHCT led to heightened early risks from TRM, yet reduced relapse and superior long-term survival relative to CT in older AML patients in CR1.

Comparison of Different Conditioning Regimens in Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplantation Shows Superiority of Total Body Irradiation-Based Regimen for Younger Patients With Acute Leukemia: A Nationwide Study

BACKGROUND

The optimal the conditioning regimens for allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation, especially for East Asian patients, remains unknown.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We collected and analyzed clinical and survival data of 4255 patients from the Korean National Health Insurance Claims Database.

RESULTS

Between 1562 myeloablative conditioning and 2693 nonmyeloablative conditioning groups, the overall survival was not statistically different. However, in the myeloablative conditioning group, the overall survival of the total body irradiation-based regimen was better than that of chemotherapy-alone regimen (P = .005). In subgroup analysis, the superiority of the total body irradiation-based regimen was especially prominent in acute leukemia (P = .012 for acute myeloid leukemia; P = .005 for acute lymphoblastic leukemia) and for younger patients (< 50 years old vs. ≥ 50 years old, P = .015).

CONCLUSION

Total body irradiation combination might be the best conditioning regimen for young patients undergoing hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation for acute leukemias in Korea.

Impact of a novel prognostic model, hematopoietic cell transplant-composite risk (HCT-CR), on allogeneic transplant outcomes in patients with acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome

Outcomes after allogeneic stem-cell transplantation (AHSCT) are influenced by both disease- and patient-related factors. Here, we developed a novel prognostic model, hematopoietic cell transplant-composite risk (HCT-CR), by combining the refined disease risk index (DRI-R) and hematopoietic stem-cell transplant comorbidity/age index (HCT-CI/Age) to predict post-transplant survival for patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). The analysis included 942 AML/MDS patients treated with AHSCT. Patients were stratified into 4 HCT-CR risk groups: Low-risk-patients with low/intermediate DRI-R and HCT-CI/Age ≤3 (N = 272); Intermediate-risk-patients with low/intermediate DRI-R and HCT-CI/Age >3 (N = 168); High-risk-patients with high/very high DRI-R and HCT-CI/Age ≤3 (N = 284); and Very high-risk-patients with high/very high DRI-R and HCT-CI/Age >3 (N = 184). Compared with the low-risk group, intermediate, high, and very high-risk groups had a significantly increased risk of death [adjusted HR of 1.37 (P < 0.04), 2.08 (P < 0.001), and 2.92 (P < 0.001), respectively]. The concordance test showed that the HCT-CR model provided better discriminative capacity for OS prediction compared with all prior models independently, including cytogenetic risk group, DRI-R, and HCT-CI/Age model (C-indices: 0.62, 0.55, 0.60, and 0.54, respectively) (P < 0.001). In conclusion, combining disease- and patient-related factors provides better survival stratification for patients with AML/MDS receiving AHSCT.

Comorbidities, age, and other patient-related predictors of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation outcomes

INTRODUCTION

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) provides potential cure to a large number of malignant and nonmalignant hematological disorders. With the development of non-myeloablative and reduced-intensity conditioning regimens, allogeneic HCT can nowadays be offered to a number of older or medically unfit patients. Up until the twenty-first century, chronological age was considered a hypothetical barrier. Recent reports, however, have shown that comorbidities, function, and other patient-related factors influence HCT outcomes at a higher magnitude than age alone. Areas covered: To define the eligibility of older or medically unfit patients for allogeneic HCT, a range of factors have to be considered. To solve this considerable issue, we need to further understand the mechanism and consequences of aging, such as chronic inflammation, sarcopenia, and especially the structure of frailty. Domains covering functional, physical, mental, social, nutritional, bone, and other health statuses should be evaluated and considered. Expert commentary: In this review we merge the current assessment tools with the potential approaches to objectify functional resources, as well as with possible methods to improve these resources in older or otherwise medically unfit patients prior to allogeneic HCT.

The impact of individual comorbidities on non-relapse mortality following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

Comorbidity burden is a well-established risk factor for non-relapse mortality (NRM) following allogeneic stem cell transplantation (allo-SCT). We evaluated whether individual comorbidities could better characterize NRM risk. Furthermore, given differing toxicity profiles of conditioning agents, we hypothesized that the hazard of comorbidities is exerted in a regimen-specific manner. This retrospective study included 875 adults treated with an allo-SCT. Six conditioning regimens were considered. Across the entire cohort and within each regimen, the hazard ratio (HR) for NRM associated with individual comorbidities was assessed using multivariable Cox regressions. In the overall population, renal dysfunction, hypoalbuminemia, and severe hepatic disease were associated with the highest risk of NRM (HR 2.1, HR 1.9, HR 1.7, respectively). The risk associated with specific comorbidities was modified by the conditioning regimen and was not correlated with intensity. In patients conditioned with fludarabine/busulfan (Flu/Bu4), NRM risk was increased with cardiac disease (HR 5.54). Severe pulmonary disease and a pre-existing infection were associated with increased NRM risk in patients receiving fludarabine/melphalan (HR 4.9) and fludarabine/treosulfan (HR 3.6), respectively. Comorbidities may exert effects unique to particular conditioning regimens, suggesting that regimen selection should be driven in part by specific comorbidities.

Baseline Renal Function and Albumin are Powerful Predictors for Allogeneic Transplantation-Related Mortality

Biomarkers measured in blood chemistry before allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) may reflect patients' physiological status. We hypothesized that selected markers are predictive for nonrelapse mortality (NRM) following transplantation and could contribute to risk assessment. We investigated the value of pre-HSCT albumin, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and alkaline phosphatase (AlkP) in predicting NRM. We retrospectively analyzed clinical and laboratory data from 1217 patients receiving a first HSCT in 2 European centers between 2003 and 2015. Transplantation indications and conditioning regimens were diverse. Patients had a median age of 55 years and hematopoietic cell transplantation comorbidity index (HCT-CI) scores of 0 (24%), 1 to 2 (39%), and ≥3 (37%). Cutoffs of eGFR <60 mL/min, albumin <3.5 g/dL, and AlkP >180 IU/L corresponded with 8.8%, 8.3%, and 6.5% of the patients, respectively. eGFR and albumin were associated with increased risk and higher cumulative incidence of day-100, 1-year, and 2-year NRM, both as continuous or categorized variables. A similar pattern was observed for AlkP, except for day-100 NRM. In multivariable analyses, eGFR and albumin were consistently among the top risk factors for early and late-term NRM, abrogating the role of age. Prediction models for day-100, 1-year, and 2-year NRM based only on HCT-CI resulted in c-statistics of .565, .575, and .577, respectively. Addition of both biomarkers increased c-statistics for day-100, 1-year, and 2-year NRM to .651, .633, and .624, respectively. Albumin and eGFR are prognostic biomarkers for NRM after HSCT and improve the discriminative power of the HCT-CI.

Mutations in DNMT3A, U2AF1, and EZH2 identify intermediate-risk acute myeloid leukemia patients with poor outcome after CR1

Intermediate-risk acute myeloid leukemia (IR-AML) is a clinically heterogeneous disease, for which optimal post-remission therapy is debated. The utility of next-generation sequencing information in decision making for IR-AML has yet to be elucidated. We retrospectively studied 100 IR-AML patients, defined by European Leukemia Net classification, who had mutational information at diagnosis, received intensive chemotherapy and achieved complete remission (CR) at Cleveland Clinic (CC). The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data were used for validation. In the CC cohort, median age was 58.5 years, 64% had normal cytogenetics, and 31% required >1 induction cycles to achieve CR1. In univariable analysis, patients carrying mutations in DNMT3A, U2AF1, and EZH2 had worse overall and relapse-free survival. After adjusting for other variables, the presence of these mutations maintained an independent effect on survival in both CC and TCGA cohorts. Patients who did not have the mutations and underwent hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) had the best outcomes. HCT improved outcomes for patients who had these mutations. RUNX1 or ASXL1 mutations did not predict survival, and performance of HCT did not confer a significant survival benefit. Our results provide evidence of clinical utility in considering mutation screening to stratify IR-AML patients after CR1 to guide therapeutic decisions.

Graft-Versus-Leukemia Effect of Allogeneic Stem-Cell Transplantation and Minimal Residual Disease in Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia in First Complete Remission

Purpose

The detection of minimal residual disease (MRD) in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) may improve future risk-adapted treatment strategies. We assessed whether MRD-positive and MRD-negative patients with AML benefit differently from the graft-versus-leukemia effect of allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (alloHSCT).

Methods

A total of 1,511 patients were treated in subsequent Dutch-Belgian Hemato-Oncology Cooperative Group and the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research AML trials, of whom 547 obtained a first complete remission, received postremission treatment (PRT), and had available flow cytometric MRD before PRT. MRD positivity was defined as more than 0.1% cells with a leukemia-associated immunophenotype within the WBC compartment. PRT consisted of alloHSCT (n = 282), conventional PRT by a third cycle of chemotherapy (n = 160), or autologous hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (n = 105).

Results

MRD was positive in 129 patients (24%) after induction chemotherapy before proceeding to PRT. Overall survival and relapse-free survival were significantly better in patients without MRD before PRT compared with MRD-positive patients (65% ± 2% v 50% ± 5% at 4 years; P = .002; and 58% ± 3% v 38% ± 4%; P < .001, respectively), which was mainly because of a lower cumulative incidence of relapse (32% ± 2% compared with 54% ± 4%; P < .001, respectively). Multivariable analysis with adjustment for covariables showed that the incidence of relapse was significantly reduced after alloHSCT compared with chemotherapy or autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (hazard ratio [HR], 0.36; P < .001), which was similarly exerted in both MRD-negative and MRD-positive patients (HR, 0.38; P < .001; and HR, 0.35; P < .001, respectively).

Conclusion

The graft-versus-leukemia effect of alloHSCT is equally present in MRD-positive and MRD-negative patients, which advocates a personalized application of alloHSCT, taking into account the risk of relapse determined by AML risk group and MRD status, as well as the counterbalancing risk of nonrelapse mortality.

European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Risk Score Predicts the Outcome of Patients with Acute Leukemia Receiving Single Umbilical Cord Blood Transplantation

The European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) risk score has been implemented as an important tool to predict patient outcomes after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. However, to our knowledge, this score has never been applied in cases of single umbilical cord blood transplantation (sUCBT). We retrospectively analyzed 207 consecutive patients with acute leukemia who received sUCBT at our center between February 2011 and December 2015. The probabilities of 3-year overall survival (OS) and leukemia-free survival (LFS) of the entire cohort were 65.0% and 59.8%, respectively, whereas the cumulative incidences of 3-year nonrelapse mortality (NRM) and relapse rate were 19.5% and 20.3%, respectively. In the univariate analysis, a higher EBMT risk score was associated with worse OS and LFS and higher NRM and relapse rate, ranging from 81.7%, 75.9%, 7.3%, and 15.3%, respectively, for patients with a score of 1 to 43.8%, 44.3%, 31.7%, and 23.9%, respectively, for patients with scores of 4 to 6. Hazard ratios of OS, LFS, and NRM all steadily increased for each additional score point. Importantly, the prognostic value of the EBMT risk score on OS, LFS, NRM, and relapse was maintained in the multivariate analysis. Moreover, considering the univariate analysis results of donor-recipient gender and mismatched allele-level HLA-A, -B, -C, and -DRB1 loci on patient outcomes and the fairly strong interaction between time from diagnosis to sUCBT and disease status, we developed a modified sUCBT-EBMT risk score by using degrees of 8-allele HLA match instead of donor type, donor-recipient gender combination, and time from diagnosis to sUCBT, and found that the modified score could also be used as a predictor for patient outcomes after sUCBT. The EBMT risk score is a good predictor of outcomes of patients with leukemia after sUCBT. The modified sUCBT-EBMT risk score can also be used as a pretransplant risk assessment, but this metric still requires further evaluation with a larger cohort.

Prognostic Scoring Systems in Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation: Where Do We Stand?

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is a potentially curative treatment for many hematologic disorders. Maximizing the benefit of transplantation for disease control while minimizing the risk for associated complications remains the field's leading challenge. This challenge has prompted the development of multiple prognostic scoring systems over the last 2 decades. Prognostic scores can be used for informed decision making, better patient counseling, design of interventional trials, and analysis of prospective and retrospective data. They are also helpful in treatment allocation and personalization according to predicted risk. A better understanding of the molecular and cytogenetic features of the disease, along with the advent of novel therapies, has increased the need for reliable prognostication of which patients will benefit most from transplantation. Here we review the clinical role of the prognostic systems currently in clinical use, examining both their strengths and their limitations.

Validation of the acute leukemia-EBMT score for prediction of mortality following allogeneic stem cell transplantation in a multi-center GITMO cohort

Predictive models may help in determining the risk/benefit ratio of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) in acute leukemia (AL). Using a machine-learning algorithm we have previously developed the AL- European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) score for prediction of mortality following transplantation. We report here the first external validation of the AL-EBMT score in a cohort of AL patients from the Italian national transplantation network. A total of 1848 patients transplanted between the years 2000-2014 were analyzed. The median age was 45.9. Indications for HSCT were Acute Myeloid Leukemia (68.1%) and Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (31.9%). The majority of patients were in first complete remission (60.4%), and received myeloablative conditioning (81.3%). Median follow-up was 2 years. The score was well-calibrated for prediction of day 100 mortality and 2-year overall survival (OS), leukemia free survival (LFS), and nonrelapse related mortality, with corresponding area under the receiver-operator curves of 0.698, 0.651, 0.653, and 0.651, respectively. Increasing score intervals were associated with a decreasing probability of 2-year OS and LFS. The highest scoring group was associated with a hazard ratio of 3.16, 2.8, and 2.27 for 2-year OS, LFS, and NRM, respectively. In conclusion, the AL-EBMT score identified three distinct risk groups and was predictive of OS. It is a valid tool for stratifying the risk of acute leukemia patients undergoing allogeneic HSCT.

Haploidentical hematopoietic cell transplantation using in vitro T cell depleted grafts as salvage therapy in patients with disease relapse after prior allogeneic transplantation

Disease relapse after one or more allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantations (HCT) represents a therapeutic challenge with all options bearing a significant morbidity and mortality. Haploidentical HCT may induce more pronounced anti-leukemic effects and was evaluated at our center in 25 consecutive patients with disease relapse after preceding HCT receiving haploidentical grafts after in vitro T cell depletion. Overall survival at 1 and 2 years was 32 and 14%, respectively. Of note, patients with complete remission (CR) before haploidentical HCT had a very favorable overall survival of 41.7% at 2 years. Cumulative incidence of non-relapse mortality was 36 and 40% at 1 and 2 years, respectively. With a cumulative incidence for relapse of 36 and 45.6% at 1 and 2 years, disease-free survival (DFS) was 28 and 14.4%, respectively. Here also, patients with CR before haploidentical HCT had a favorable DFS of 42% at 2 years. Only very limited acute (11 patients (44%) with a median grade 1) and chronic graft versus host disease (GvHD) (5 patients (11%), limited grade only) was observed. The main complications and causes of death comprised-besides relapse-infections and bleeding complications. Hence, haploidentical HCT can achieve long-term survival comparable to second transplantation with matched or mismatched donors for patients with otherwise deleterious prognosis and should be considered as a treatment option for patients experiencing disease relapse after previous allogeneic HCT.

Diagnosis and management of AML in adults: 2017 ELN recommendations from an international expert panel

The first edition of the European LeukemiaNet (ELN) recommendations for diagnosis and management of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in adults, published in 2010, has found broad acceptance by physicians and investigators caring for patients with AML. Recent advances, for example, in the discovery of the genomic landscape of the disease, in the development of assays for genetic testing and for detecting minimal residual disease (MRD), as well as in the development of novel antileukemic agents, prompted an international panel to provide updated evidence- and expert opinion-based recommendations. The recommendations include a revised version of the ELN genetic categories, a proposal for a response category based on MRD status, and criteria for progressive disease.

Comparative value of post-remission treatment in cytogenetically normal AML subclassified by NPM1 and FLT3-ITD allelic ratio

Post-remission treatment (PRT) in patients with cytogenetically normal (CN) acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in first complete remission (CR1) is debated. We studied 521 patients with CN-AML in CR1, for whom mutational status of NPM1 and FLT3-ITD was available, including the FLT3-ITD allelic ratio. PRT consisted of reduced intensity conditioning (RIC) allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (alloHSCT) (n=68), myeloablative conditioning (MAC) alloHSCT (n=137), autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (autoHSCT) (n=168) or chemotherapy (n=148). Favorable overall survival (OS) was found for patients with mutated NPM1 without FLT3-ITD (71±4%). Outcome in patients with a high FLT3-ITD allelic ratio appeared to be very poor with OS and relapse-free survival (RFS) of 23±8% and 12±6%, respectively. Patients with wild-type NPM1 without FLT3-ITD or with a low allelic burden of FLT3-ITD were considered as intermediate-risk group because of similar OS and RFS at 5 years, in which PRT by RIC alloHSCT resulted in better OS and RFS as compared with chemotherapy (hazard ratio (HR) 0.56, P=0.022 and HR 0.50, P=0.004, respectively) or autoHSCT (HR 0.60, P=0.046 and HR 0.60, P=0.043, respectively). The lowest cumulative incidence of relapse (23±4%) was observed following MAC alloHSCT. These results suggest that alloHSCT may be preferred in patients with molecularly intermediate-risk CN-AML, while the choice of conditioning type may be personalized according to risk for non-relapse mortality.

Acute myeloid leukaemia

Acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) is a disorder characterized by a clonal proliferation derived from primitive haematopoietic stem cells or progenitor cells. Abnormal differentiation of myeloid cells results in a high level of immature malignant cells and fewer differentiated red blood cells, platelets and white blood cells. The disease occurs at all ages, but predominantly occurs in older people (>60 years of age). AML typically presents with a rapid onset of symptoms that are attributable to bone marrow failure and may be fatal within weeks or months when left untreated. The genomic landscape of AML has been determined and genetic instability is infrequent with a relatively small number of driver mutations. Mutations in genes involved in epigenetic regulation are common and are early events in leukaemogenesis. The subclassification of AML has been dependent on the morphology and cytogenetics of blood and bone marrow cells, but specific mutational analysis is now being incorporated. Improvements in treatment in younger patients over the past 35 years has largely been due to dose escalation and better supportive care. Allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation may be used to consolidate remission in those patients who are deemed to be at high risk of relapse. A plethora of new agents - including those targeted at specific biochemical pathways and immunotherapeutic approaches - are now in trial based on improved understanding of disease pathophysiology. These advances provide good grounds for optimism, although mortality remains high especially in older patients.

Prediction of Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Related Mortality- Lessons Learned from the In-Silico Approach: A European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Acute Leukemia Working Party Data Mining Study

Models for prediction of allogeneic hematopoietic stem transplantation (HSCT) related mortality partially account for transplant risk. Improving predictive accuracy requires understating of prediction limiting factors, such as the statistical methodology used, number and quality of features collected, or simply the population size. Using an in-silico approach (i.e., iterative computerized simulations), based on machine learning (ML) algorithms, we set out to analyze these factors. A cohort of 25,923 adult acute leukemia patients from the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) registry was analyzed. Predictive objective was non-relapse mortality (NRM) 100 days following HSCT. Thousands of prediction models were developed under varying conditions: increasing sample size, specific subpopulations and an increasing number of variables, which were selected and ranked by separate feature selection algorithms. Depending on the algorithm, predictive performance plateaued on a population size of 6,611–8,814 patients, reaching a maximal area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.67. AUCs’ of models developed on specific subpopulation ranged from 0.59 to 0.67 for patients in second complete remission and receiving reduced intensity conditioning, respectively. Only 3–5 variables were necessary to achieve near maximal AUCs. The top 3 ranking variables, shared by all algorithms were disease stage, donor type, and conditioning regimen. Our findings empirically demonstrate that with regards to NRM prediction, few variables “carry the weight” and that traditional HSCT data has been “worn out”. “Breaking through” the predictive boundaries will likely require additional types of inputs.

Reduced intensity conditioning allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for adult acute myeloid leukemia in complete remission - a review from the Acute Leukemia Working Party of the EBMT

Acute myeloid leukemia is the most common indication for an allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant. The introduction of reduced intensity conditioning has expanded the recipient pool for transplantation, which has importantly made transplant an option for the more commonly affected older age groups. Reduced intensity conditioning allogeneic transplantation is currently the standard of care for patients with intermediate or high-risk acute myeloid leukemia and is now most often employed in older patients and those with medical comorbidities. Despite being curative for a significant proportion of patients, post-transplant relapse remains a challenge in the reduced intensity conditioning setting. Herein we discuss the studies that demonstrate the feasibility of reduced intensity conditioning allogeneic transplants, compare the outcomes of reduced intensity conditioning versus chemotherapy and conventional myeloablative conditioning regimens, describe the optimal donor and stem cell source, and consider the impact of post-remission consolidation, comorbidities, center experience, and more intensive (reduced toxicity conditioning) regimens on outcomes. Additionally, we discuss the need for further prospective studies to optimize transplant outcomes.

Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for patients with AML in first complete remission

Postremission therapy in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) may consist of continuing chemotherapy or transplantation using either autologous or allogeneic stem cells. Patients with favorable subtypes of AML generally receive chemotherapeutic consolidation, although recent studies have also suggested favorable outcome after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Although allogeneic HSCT (alloHSCT) is considered the preferred type of postremission therapy in poor- and very-poor-risk AML, the place of alloHSCT in intermediate-risk AML is being debated, and autologous HSCT is considered a valuable alternative that may be preferred in patients without minimal residual disease after induction chemotherapy. Here, we review postremission transplantation strategies using either autologous or allogeneic stem cells. Recent developments in the field of alternative donors, including cord blood and haploidentical donors, are highlighted, and we discuss reduced-intensity alloHSCT in older AML recipients who represent the predominant category of patients with AML who have a high risk of relapse in first remission.

Prediction of Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplantation Mortality 100 Days After Transplantation Using a Machine Learning Algorithm: A European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Acute Leukemia Working Party Retrospective Data Mining Study

Purpose

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) is potentially curative for acute leukemia (AL), but carries considerable risk. Machine learning algorithms, which are part of the data mining (DM) approach, may serve for transplantation-related mortality risk prediction.

Patients and Methods

This work is a retrospective DM study on a cohort of 28,236 adult HSCT recipients from the AL registry of the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. The primary objective was prediction of overall mortality (OM) at 100 days after HSCT. Secondary objectives were estimation of nonrelapse mortality, leukemia-free survival, and overall survival at 2 years. Donor, recipient, and procedural characteristics were analyzed. The alternating decision tree machine learning algorithm was applied for model development on 70% of the data set and validated on the remaining data.

Results

OM prevalence at day 100 was 13.9% (n = 3,936). Of the 20 variables considered, 10 were selected by the model for OM prediction, and several interactions were discovered. By using a logistic transformation function, the crude score was transformed into individual probabilities for 100-day OM (range, 3% to 68%). The model's discrimination for the primary objective performed better than the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation score (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, 0.701 v 0.646; P < .001). Calibration was excellent. Scores assigned were also predictive of secondary objectives.

Conclusion

The alternating decision tree model provides a robust tool for risk evaluation of patients with AL before HSCT, and is available online ( http://bioinfo.lnx.biu.ac.il/∼bondi/web1.html ). It is presented as a continuous probabilistic score for the prediction of day 100 OM, extending prediction to 2 years. The DM method has proved useful for clinical prediction in HSCT.