The future burden of oesophageal and stomach cancers attributable to modifiable behaviours in Australia: a pooled cohort study

Dose-response association between cigarette smoking and gastric cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis

This study aims at providing an accurate and up-to-date quantification of the dose-response association between cigarette smoking and gastric cancer (GC) risk, overall and by subsite. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of case-control and cohort studies on the association between cigarette smoking and GC risk published up to January 2023. We estimated pooled relative risks (RR) of GC and its subsites according to smoking status, intensity, duration, and time since quitting. Among 271 eligible articles, 205 original studies were included in this meta-analysis. Compared with never smokers, the pooled RR for GC was 1.53 (95% confidence interval; CI 1.44-1.62; n = 92) for current and 1.30 (95% CI 1.23-1.37; n = 82) for former smokers. The RR for current compared with never smokers was 2.08 (95% CI 1.66-2.61; n = 21) for gastric cardia and 1.48 (95% CI 1.33-1.66; n = 8) for distal stomach cancer. GC risk nonlinearly increased with smoking intensity up to 20 cigarettes/day (RR:1.69; 95% CI 1.55-1.84) and levelled thereafter. GC risk significantly increased linearly with increasing smoking duration (RR: 1.31; 95% CI 1.25-1.37 for 20 years) and significantly decreased linearly with increasing time since quitting (RR: 0.65; 95% CI 0.44-0.95 for 30 years since cessation). The present meta-analysis confirms that cigarette smoking is an independent risk factor for GC, particularly for gastric cardia. GC risk increases with a low number of cigarettes up to 20 cigarettes/day and increases in a dose-dependent manner with smoking duration.

Burdens of stomach and esophageal cancer from 1990 to 2019 and projection to 2030 in China: Findings from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study

Background

Stomach and esophageal cancer exhibit high morbidity and mortality rate in China, resulting in substantial disease burdens. It is imperative to identify the temporal trends of stomach and esophageal cancer from 1990 to 2019 and project future trends until 2030, which can provide valuable information for planning effective management and prevention strategies.

Methods

We collected and analysed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) between 1990 and 2019, including incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate (ASMR) and DALYs rate. We also calculated and reported the proportion of mortality and DALYs attributable to risk factors by sex in China and different regions. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project future trends until 2030.

Results

The new cases, deaths and DALYs of stomach and esophageal cancer increased from 1990 to 2019. However, the ASIR, ASMR and age-standardised DALYs rates for stomach and esophageal cancer all decreased during the same period. These changes may be related to risks, such as smoking and diet. Furthermore, we utilised the projection model to estimate that the ASIR and ASMR of stomach and esophageal cancer among females will likely follow steady downward trends, while the ASMR of stomach cancer among males is expected to exhibit a significant decline. However, the ASIR of stomach and esophageal cancer and the ASMR of esophageal cancer among males are projected to display slight upward trends until 2030.

Conclusions

The analysis of stomach and esophageal cancer trends in China from 1990 to 2030 reveals a general decline. However, it is crucial to acknowledge the persistent high burden of both cancers in the country. Adopting healthy lifestyle practices, including the reduction of tobacco and alcohol intake, avoidance of moldy foods and increased consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables can contribute to mitigating the risk of stomach and esophageal cancer. Significantly, the formulation and implementation of well-founded and efficacious public health policies are imperative for alleviating the disease burden in China.