Bimodal seismicity in the Himalaya controlled by fault friction and geometry

Multimodal Non-Extensive Frequency-Magnitude Distributions and Their Relationship to Multi-Source Seismicity

We investigate multimodal seismicity by analyzing it as the result of multiple seismic sources. We examine three case studies: the Redoubt and Spurr regions in Alaska, where volcanic and subduction-related seismicity occur, and the Kii Peninsula in Japan, where shallow and deep earthquakes are clearly separated. To understand this phenomenon, we perform spatial, temporal, and magnitude analyses. Our application of non-extensive statistical mechanics shows that multimodal models provide a significantly better fit than unimodal ones. We identify patterns in the distributions of time between events and distances between events using multimodal Tsallis q-gamma distributions. In addition, we use the multimodal Sotolongo-Costa model to analyze the magnitude distribution, which effectively captures the complex interactions that may explain the observed lack of fractality in multimodal seismicity.

Toward quantitative characterization of simulated earthquake-cycle complexities

Earthquake cycle simulations based on the rate-and-state friction formulation are evolutions of nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS). The term "cycle" implies an overall stable structure that is a phase-space attractor naturally traced out by trajectories of NDS as it evolves. Quantitatively characterizing these attractors should be a basis for measuring complexities of the simulated earthquake cycles, i.e. to determine if and how regular or chaotic they are. I first revisit the textbook-standard quasi-dynamic spring-slider system from an NDS perspective, explicitly showing the attractors, their relationship with the parameters of the NDS, and how they can be characterized taken advantage of their low-dimensionality while aiming to extend the analysis to high-dimensionality. I evaluate two approaches, computing the Lyapunov exponents (LEs) and measuring correlation dimensions, with the simple spring-slider and earthquake-cycle examples whose phase-space attractors can be visually verified. I conclude LEs are too inconvenient and computationally expensive to use whereas measuring correlation dimensions is an easy and effective approach even with highly non-uniform time sampling present in all simulations. For earthquake-cycle simulations, an attractor reconstruction is performed based on Taken's theorem to corroborate my correlation-dimension results. The current method is limited in its ability to detect chaos in a dichotomous manner, which illuminates the direction for future study. An improving ability to quantitatively characterize earthquake-cycle simulations as an overall stable structure offers new opportunities to understand exotic seismic observations such as slow-slip events and enables more informative comparison with real data, particularly from paleoseismology, which could have far-reaching implications in earthquake forecasting.

Pre-Failure Strain Localization in Siliclastic Rocks: A Comparative Study of Laboratory and Numerical Approaches

We combined novel laboratory techniques and numerical modeling to investigate (a)seismic preparatory processes associated with deformation localization during a triaxial failure test on a dry sample of Berea sandstone. Laboratory observations were quantified by measuring strain localization on the sample surface with a distributed strain sensing (DSS) array, utilizing optical fibers, in conjunction with both passive and active acoustic emission (AE) techniques. A physics-based computational model was subsequently employed to understand the underlying physics of these observations and to establish a spatio-temporal correlation between the laboratory and modeling results. These simulations revealed three distinct stages of preparatory processes: (i) highly dissipative fronts propagated towards the middle of the sample correlating with the observed acoustic emission locations; (ii) dissipative regions were individuated in the middle of the sample and could be linked to a discernible decrease of the P-wave velocities; (iii) a system of conjugate bands formed, coalesced into a single band that grew from the center towards the sample surface and was interpreted to be representative for the preparation of a weak plane. Dilatative lobes at the process zones of the weak plane extended outwards and grew to the surface, causing strain localization and an acceleration of the simulated deformation prior to failure. This was also observed during the experiment with the strain rate measurements and spatio-temporally correlated with an increase of the seismicity rate in a similar rock volume. The combined approach of such laboratory and numerical techniques provides an enriched view of (a)seismic preparatory processes preceding the mainshock.

A facile strategy for the large-scale preparation of starch-based AIE luminescent nanoaggregates via host-guest interactions and their versatile applications

Luminescent nanomaterials with outstanding optical properties have attracted growing interest due to their widespread applications. However, large-scale fabrication of luminescent nanomaterials with desired properties through a simple and economical process remains challenging. As a renewable natural resource, starch is non-toxic, easily accessible, and inexpensive, making it a popular choice for uses in various biomedical fields. In this work, we present a facile assembly strategy for the fabrication of starch-based luminescent nanoaggregates using starch as the host material and aggregation-induced emission luminogens (AIEgens) as guest molecules. By employing simple procedures under mild conditions, highly luminescent nanoparticles with small sizes, high water dispersibility, and low cytotoxicity are prepared on a large scale. The resulting nano-assemblies demonstrate significantly enhanced fluorescence intensities, reduced susceptibility to photobleaching and low cytotoxicity. These fluorescent supramolecular aggregates can be employed in various application fields, including the fabrication of fluorescent hydrogels, fingerprint detection, cell imaging and in vivo lymphatic system imaging. The methodology developed in this work has immense potential to greatly promote the production of high-quality nanoparticles on the industrial scale, offering a cost-effective solution that can meet the needs of various applications and pave the way for wider implementation of nanotechnology.

Using a Hybrid Approach to Increase the Impact of Medical Response to Natural Disasters

The United Nations (UN) established an umbrella of organizations to manage distinct clusters of humanitarian aid. The World Health Organization (WHO) oversees the health cluster, giving it responsibility for global, national, and local medical responses to natural disasters. However, this centralized structure insufficiently engages local players, impeding robust local implementation. The Gorkha earthquake struck Nepal on April 25, 2015, becoming Nepal's most severe natural disaster since the 1934 Nepal-Bihar earthquake. In coordinated response, 2 organizations, Empower Nepali Girls and International Neurosurgical Children's Association, used a hybrid approach integrating continuous communication with local recipients. Each organization mobilized its principal resource strengths-material medical supplies or human capital-thereby efficiently deploying resources to maximize the impact of the medical response. In addition to efficient resource use, this approach facilitates dynamic medical responses from highly mobile organizations. Importantly, in addition to future earthquakes in Nepal, this medical response strategy is easily scalable to other natural disaster contexts and other medical relief organizations. Preemptively identifying partner organizations with complementary strengths, continuous engagement with recipient populations, and creating disaster- and region-specific response teams may represent viable variations of the WHO cluster model with greater efficacy in local implementation of treatment in acute disaster scenarios.

Lithospheric double shear zone unveiled by microseismicity in a region of slow deformation

The deformation style of the continental lithosphere is a relevant issue for geodynamics and seismic hazard perspectives. Here we show the first evidence of two well-distinct low-angle and SW-dipping individual reverse shear zones of the Italian Outer Thrust System in Central Italy. One corresponds to the down-dip prosecution of the Adriatic Basal Thrust with its major splay and the other to a hidden independent structure, illuminated at a depth between 25 and 60 km, for an along-strike extent of ~ 150 km. Combining geological information with high-quality seismological data, we unveil this novel configuration and reconstruct a detailed 3D geometric and kinematic fault model of the compressional system, active at upper crust to upper mantle depths. In addition, we report evidence of coexisting deformation volumes undergoing well-distinguished stress fields at different lithospheric depths. These results provide fundamental constraints for a forthcoming discussion on the Apennine fold-and-thrust system's geodynamic context as a shallow subduction zone or an intra-continental lithosphere shear zone.

Bridging earthquakes and mountain building in the Santa Cruz Mountains, CA

Relative crustal motions along active faults generate earthquakes, and repeated earthquake cycles build mountain ranges over millions of years. However, the long-term summation of elastic, earthquake-related deformation cannot produce the deformation recorded within the rock record. Here, we provide an explanation for this discrepancy by showing that increases in strain facilitated by plastic deformation of Earth's crust during the earthquake cycle, in conjunction with isostatic deflection and erosion, transform relative fault motions that produce individual earthquakes to geologic deformations. We focus our study on the data-rich Santa Cruz Mountains, CA, USA and compare predicted and observed quantities for rock uplift, apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronology, topographic relief, ¹⁰Be-based erosion rates, and interseismic surface velocities. This approach reconciles these disparate records of mountain-building processes, allowing us to explicitly bridge decadal measures of deformation with that produced by millions of years of plate motion.

InSAR Constrained Downdip and Updip Afterslip Following the 2015 Nepal Earthquake: New Insights into Moment Budget of the Main Himalayan Thrust

We use ALOS-2 and Sentinel-1 data spanning 2015–2020 to obtain the post-seismic deformation of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal earthquake. ALOS-2 observations reveal that the post-seismic deformation was mainly distributed in four areas. A large-scale uplift deformation occurred in the northern subsidence area of the co-seismic deformation field, with a maximum uplift of ~80 mm within 4.5 yr after the mainshock. While in the southern coseismic uplift area, the direction of the post-seismic deformation is generally opposite to the co-seismic deformation. Additionally, two notable deformation areas are located in the region around 29° N, and near the MFT, respectively. Sentinel-1 observations reveal post-seismic uplift deformation on the north side of the co-seismic deformation field with an average rate of ~20 mm/yr in line-of-stght. The kinematic afterslip constrained by InSAR data shows that the frictional slip is distributed in both updip and downdip areas. The maximum cumulative afterslip is 0.35 m in downdip areas, and 0.2 m in the updip areas, constrained by the ALOS measurements. The stress-driven afterslip model shows that the afterslip is distributed in the downdip area with a maximum slip of 0.3 m during the first year after the earthquake. Within the 4.5 yr after the mainshock, the estimated moment released by afterslip is ~1.5174 × 1020 Nm,about 21.2% of that released by the main earthquake.

Modelling of crustal composition and Moho depths and their Implications toward seismogenesis in the Kumaon-Garhwal Himalaya

We image the lateral variations in the Moho depths and average crustal composition across the Kumaon–Garhwal (KG) Himalaya, through the H–K stacking of 1400 radial PRFs from 42 three-component broadband stations. The modelled Moho depth, average crustal Vp/Vs, and Poisson’s ratio estimates vary from 28.3 to 52.9 km, 1.59 to 2.13 and 0.17 to 0.36, respectively, in the KG Himalaya. We map three NS to NNE trending transverse zones of significant thinning of mafic crust, which are interspaced by zones of thickening of felsic crust. These mapped transverse zones bend toward the north to form a NE dipping zone of maximum changes in Moho depths, below the region between Munsiari and Vaikrita thrusts. The 1991 M_w6.6 Uttarakashi and 1999 M_w6.4 Chamoli earthquakes have occurred on the main Himalayan thrust (MHT), lying just above the mapped zone of maximum changes in Moho depths. Modelled large values of average crustal Vp/Vs (> 1.85) could be attributed to the high fluid (metamorphic fluids) pressure associated with the mid-crustal MHT. Additionally, the serpentinization of the lowermost crust resulted from the continent–continent Himalayan collision process could also contribute to the increase of the average crustal Vp/Vs ratio in the region.

Establishing primary surface rupture evidence and magnitude of the 1697 CE Sadiya earthquake at the Eastern Himalayan Frontal thrust, India

Historical archives refer to often recurring earthquakes along the Eastern Himalaya for which geological evidence is lacking, raising the question of whether these events ruptured the surface or remained blind, and how do they contribute to the seismic budget of the region, which is home to millions of inhabitants. We report a first mega trench excavation at Himebasti village, Arunachal Pradesh, India, and analyze it with modern geological techniques. The study includes twenty-one radiocarbon dates to limit the timing of displacement after 1445 CE, suggesting that the area was devastated in the 1697 CE event, known as Sadiya Earthquake, with a dip-slip displacement of 15.3 ± 4.6 m. Intensity prediction equations and scaling laws for earthquake rupture size allow us to constraints a magnitude of Mw 7.7–8.1 and a minimum rupture length of ~ 100 km for the 1697 CE earthquake.

The State of Remote Sensing Capabilities of Cascading Hazards over High Mountain Asia

Cascading hazard processes refer to a primary trigger such as heavy rainfall, seismic activity, or snow melt, followed by a chain or web of consequences that can cause subsequent hazards influenced by a complex array of preconditions and vulnerabilities. These interact in multiple ways and can have tremendous impacts on populations proximate to or downstream of these initial triggers. High Mountain Asia (HMA) is extremely vulnerable to cascading hazard processes given the tectonic, geomorphologic, and climatic setting of the region, particularly as it relates to glacial lakes. Given the limitations of in situ surveys in steep and often inaccessible terrain, remote sensing data are a valuable resource for better understanding and quantifying these processes. The present work provides a survey of cascading hazard processes impacting HMA and how these can be characterized using remote sensing sources. We discuss how remote sensing products can be used to address these process chains, citing several examples of cascading hazard scenarios across HMA. This work also provides a perspective on the current gaps and challenges, community needs, and view forward towards improved characterization of evolving hazards and risk across HMA.