Pricing indirect emissions accelerates low-carbon transition of US light vehicle sector

Local Climate Might Amplify Economic and Environmental Impacts of Electric Vehicles in China

Electric vehicles (EVs) are crucial for addressing the intertwined challenges of climate change and air pollution. The multiaspect benefits of EVs are highly dependent on local climate conditions, yet the impacts of regional heterogeneity in the context of future climate change remain unclear. Here, we develop a systemic modeling framework integrating fleet modeling, emission projection, index decomposition analysis, and detailed cost assessment to identify local drivers and potential trade-offs behind electrification. Our findings reveal substantial regional variations in EV charging costs, ranging from 2.6 to 3.6 USD/100km. By 2030, EVs could constitute 54 to 96% of regional vehicle sales, reducing China's CO2 emissions by 40.3 Tg and NOx emissions by 20.8 Gg compared to 2020 levels. Climate change might amplify the impacts of EVs, potentially reducing national energy consumption by 1-2% toward 2060, particularly by alleviating winter-related battery performance degradation. Our results highlight tailoring strategies to subregional conditions and recommend accelerating electrification to maximize environmental and economic cobenefits under global warming.

Linking Electricity and Air Quality Models by Downscaling: Weather-Informed Hourly Dispatch of Generation Accounting for Renewable and Load Temporal Variability Scenarios

National models of the electric sector typically consider a handful of generator operating periods per year, while pollutant fate and transport models have an hourly resolution. We bridge that scale gap by introducing a novel fundamental-based temporal downscaling method (TDM) for translating national or regional energy scenarios to hourly emissions. Optimization-based generator dispatch is used to account for variations in emissions stemming from weather-sensitive power demands and wind and solar generation. The TDM is demonstrated by downscaling emissions from the electricity market module in the National Energy Model System. As a case study, we implement the TDM in the Virginia-Carolinas region and compare its results with traditional statistical downscaling used in the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) processing model. We find that the TDM emission profiles respond to weather and that nitrogen oxide emissions are positively correlated with conditions conducive to ozone formation. In contrast, SMOKE emission time series, which are rooted in historical operating patterns, exhibit insensitivity to weather conditions and potential biases, particularly with high renewable penetration and climate change. Relying on SMOKE profiles can also obscure variations in emission patterns across different policy scenarios, potentially downplaying their impacts on power system operations and emissions.

Deep decarbonization potential and implementation path under provincial differences in China's fleet electrification

Fleet electrification is considered to be an important measure for reducing carbon emissions in the road transport industry. Considering the heterogeneity of the NEV market penetration and the vehicle types in different provinces, how to design targeted and time-sequenced road transport decarbonisation reduction strategies has become a key issue that needs to be discussed urgently. In this study, the NEVs ownership in China's 31 provinces is used as an intermediate variable. Considering the process of energy transition and changes in vehicle structure, a two-layer scenario framework that combines Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios and model structure was developed to predict carbon emissions. This study firstly analyzes the electrification process and carbon emission reduction potential of provincial road transport industry by region, vehicle type and stage. The potential for reducing carbon emissions was determined under benchmark, transition, and electrification scenarios. The results indicate that the Pearson Correlation Coefficient-Discrete Wavelet Transform-Bidirectional Long Short-term Memory prediction model has an mean absolute percentage error of 8.583 and an R-squared of 0.975. China's road transportation industry total carbon emissions will reach its peak as early as 2027, due to the rapid implementation of renewable energy and fleet electrification. Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, and Guangdong have set carbon peak targets that can be achieved faster with the transition plan for new energy vehicles to replace fossil fuel vehicles. This paper proposes a timing-responsive deep decarbonization path and policy recommendations for China's road transport industry in sub provincial and time-series settings.

Uncovering the CO2 emissions of vehicles: A well-to-wheel approach

Carbon dioxide (CO2) from road traffic is a non-negligible part of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and it is a challenge for the world today to accurately estimate road traffic CO2 emissions and formulate effective emission reduction policies. Current emission inventories for vehicles have either low-resolution, or limited coverage, and they have not adequately focused on the CO2 emission produced by new energy vehicles (NEV) considering fuel life cycle. To fill the research gap, this paper proposed a framework of a high-resolution well-to-wheel (WTW) CO2 emission estimation for a full sample of vehicles and revealed the unique CO2 emission characteristics of different categories of vehicles combined with vehicle behavior. Based on this, the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of CO2 emissions were analyzed with the geographical and temporal weighted regression (GTWR) model. Finally, the CO2 emissions of vehicles under different scenarios are simulated to support the formulation of emission reduction policies. The results show that the distribution of vehicle CO2 emissions shows obvious heterogeneity in time, space, and vehicle category. By simply adjusting the existing NEV promotion policy, the emission reduction effect can be improved by 6.5%-13.5% under the same NEV penetration. If combined with changes in power generation structure, it can further release the emission reduction potential of NEVs, which can reduce the current CO2 emissions by 78.1% in the optimal scenario.

Regulation-driven changes in PM2.5 sources in China from 2013 to 2019, a critical review and trend analysis

Identifying changes in source-specific fine particles (PM2.5) over time is essential for evaluating the effectiveness of regulatory measures and informing future policy decisions. After the extreme haze events in China during 2013-14, more comprehensive and stringent policies were implemented to combat PM2.5 pollution. To determine the effectiveness of these policies, it is necessary to assess the changes in the specific source types to which the regulations pertain. Multiple studies have been conducted over the past decade to apportion PM2.5. The purpose of this study was to explore the available literature and conduct a critical review of the reliable results. In total, 5008 articles were screened, but only 48 studies were included for further analysis given our inclusion criteria including covering a monitoring period of ≥1 year and having enough speciation data to provide mass closure. Using these studies, we analyzed temporal and spatial trends across China from 2013 to 2019. We observed the overall decrease in the concentration contributions from all main source categories. The reductions from industry, coal and heavy oil combustion, and the related secondary sulfate were more notable, especially from 2013 to 2016-17. The contributions from biomass burning initially decreased but then increased slightly after 2016 in some locations despite new constraints on agricultural and household burning practices. Although the contributions from vehicle emissions and related secondary nitrate decreased, they gradually became the primary contributors to PM2.5 by ∼2017. Despite the substantial improvements achieved by the air pollution regulation implementations, further improvements in air quality will require additional aggressive actions, especially those targeting vehicular emissions. Ultimately, source apportionment studies based on extended duration, fixed-site sampling are recommended to provide a more thorough understanding of the sources impacting areas and transformations in PM2.5 sources prompted by regulatory actions.

A cross-scale framework for evaluating flexibility values of battery and fuel cell electric vehicles

Flexibility has become increasingly important considering the intermittency of variable renewable energy in low-carbon energy systems. Electrified transportation exhibits great potential to provide flexibility. This article analyzed and compared the flexibility values of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles for planning and operating interdependent electricity and hydrogen supply chains while considering battery degradation costs. A cross-scale framework involving both macro-level and micro-level models was proposed to compute the profits of flexible EV refueling/charging with battery degradation considered. Here we show that the flexibility reduction after considering battery degradation is quantified by at least 4.7% of the minimum system cost and enlarged under fast charging and low-temperature scenarios. Our findings imply that energy policies and relevant management technologies are crucial to shaping the comparative flexibility advantage of the two transportation electrification pathways. The proposed cross-scale methodology has broad implications for the assessment of emerging energy technologies with complex dynamics.

Impact of battery electric vehicle usage on air quality in three Chinese first-tier cities

China, the world leader in automobile production and sales, confronts the challenge of transportation emissions, which account for roughly 10% of its total carbon emissions. This study, utilizing real-world vehicle data from three major Chinese cities, assesses the impact of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) on air quality. Our analysis reveals that BEVs, when replacing gasoline vehicles in their operational phase, significantly reduce emissions, with reductions ranging from 8.72 to 85.71 kg of CO2 per vehicle monthly. The average monthly reduction rate is 9.47%, though this effect is less pronounced during winter. Advanced BEVs, characterized by higher efficiency and newer technology, exhibit greater emission reduction benefits. While private BEVs generally contribute positively to environmental outcomes, taxi BEVs, due to their intensive usage patterns, show less environmental advantage and may sometimes worsen air quality. Looking ahead, we project substantial emission reductions from the replacement of gasoline vehicles with electric alternatives over the next decade. Policymakers are urged to adopt proactive measures, focusing on promoting medium to large electric vehicles and fostering the use of private and ride-hailing electric vehicles.

A bibliometric review on electric vehicle (EV) energy efficiency and emission effect research

Electric vehicles have received extensive attention due to their unique energy efficiency and good emission reduction effects. While a large-scale of electric vehicles are gradually replacing traditional fuel vehicles, it is necessary to ensure the energy efficiency of electric vehicles and the effectiveness of their emission reduction effects. This study conducted a bibliometric analysis of scientific publications on energy efficiency and emission reduction effects of electric vehicles from 2003 to 2022, using a variety of bibliometric tools such as R Studio, biblioshiny and VOSviewer. The results showed the gradual elimination of traditional energy vehicles, where electric vehicles play an important role in connecting energy efficiency and emission control. The results also showed the top publication outlets, citations trackers, authors with thematic evaluation of energy efficiency and emission reduction effects of electric vehicles. The contribution of the study is manifold. The academic contribution of the present study is the bibliometric analysis which will help academicians to get a quick overview of the most popular journals, top collaborators, documents, authors, and scientific knowledge structure. Secondly, policy makers, environmentalists, researchers, and academician will definitely get a pathway how they should go for future research. Finally, this study suggests more researches trend to focus on the sales of electric vehicles, automobile exhaust emissions, sensitivity analysis of electric vehicles, energy storage analysis to improve the energy efficiency of electric vehicles, and V2G related to the energy efficiency of electric vehicle clusters.

Will reshoring manufacturing of advanced electric vehicle battery support renewable energy transition and climate targets?

Recent global logistics and geopolitical challenges draw attention to the potential raw material shortages for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Here, we analyze the long-term energy and sustainability prospects to ensure a secure and resilient midstream and downstream value chain for the U.S. EV battery market amid uncertain market expansion and evolving battery technologies. With current battery technologies, reshoring and ally-shoring the midstream and downstream EV battery manufacturing will reduce the carbon footprint by 15% and energy use by 5 to 7%. While next-generation cobalt-free battery technologies will achieve up to 27% carbon emission reduction, transitioning to 54% less carbon-intensive blade lithium iron phosphate may diminish the mitigation benefits of supply chain restructuring. Our findings underscore the importance of adopting nickel from secondary sources and nickel-rich ores. However, the advantages of restructuring the U.S. EV battery supply chain depend on projected battery technology advancements.

On the pursuit of emissions-free clean mobility - Electric vehicles versus e-fuels

With the passing of every second we get closer to a society that is more cognizant of the effect carbon dioxide emissions are having on our planet, and that is more willing to take part in sustainable efforts to combat this and ever more interested in investing in cleaner technologies like electric vehicles (EVs). EVs are marching strongly into a market that is currently dominated by internal combustion engine vehicles, the current main fuel of which is a known contributor to most of the emission related climate problems that we now find ourselves in. Moving ahead, it is important that any move from internal combustion engines to more nascent technologies like EVs is sustainable and not detrimental to the environment. There is an ongoing debate between proponents of so-called e-fuels (being synthetic fuels made from atmospheric carbon dioxide, water, and renewable energy) and EVs wherein e-fuels are largely accused of being a half-measure while EVs are thought to contribute more in terms of brake and tire emissions than the ICE vehicles. This raises the question of whether there should even be a complete replacement of the combustion engine vehicle fleet or that should there be a 'mobility mix' similar to how we currently refer to an energy mix with power grids. This article offers some perspectives by critically analyzing and diving deeper into these pressing concerns to answer some of these questions.

High concentration from resources to market heightens risk for power lithium-ion battery supply chains globally

Global low-carbon contracts, along with the energy and environmental crises, have encouraged the rapid development of the power battery industry. As the current first choice for power batteries, lithium-ion batteries have overwhelming advantages. However, the explosive growth of the demand for power lithium-ion batteries will likely cause crises such as resource shortages and supply-demand imbalances. This study adopts qualitative and quantitative research methods to comprehensively evaluate the power lithium-ion battery supply and demand risks by analyzing the global material flow of these batteries. The results show that the processes from resources to market of the power lithium-ion battery industry are highly concentrated with growing trends. The proportion of the top three power lithium-ion battery-producing countries grew from 71.79% in 2016 to 92.22% in 2020, increasing by 28%. The top three power lithium-ion battery-demand countries accounted for 83.07% of the demand in 2016 and 88.16% in 2020. The increasing concentration increases the severity of the supply risk. The results also imply that different processes are concentrated within different countries or regions, and the segmentation puts the development of the power lithium-ion battery industry at significant risk. It is urgent to address this situation so that this severe risk can be ameliorated.

Trade-off between critical metal requirement and transportation decarbonization in automotive electrification

Automotive electrification holds the promise of mitigating transportation-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, yet at the expense of growing demand for critical metals. Here, we analyze the trade-off between the decarbonization potential of the road transportation sector and its critical metal requirement from the demand-side perspective in 48 major countries committing to decarbonize their road transportation sectors aided by electric vehicles (EVs). Our results demonstrate that deploying EVs with 40-100% penetration by 2050 can increase lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese demands by 2909-7513%, 2127-5426%, 1039-2684%, and 1099-2838%, respectively, and grow platinum group metal requirement by 131-179% in the 48 investigated countries, relative to 2020. Higher EV penetration reduces GHG emissions from fuel use regardless of the transportation energy transition, while those from fuel production are more sensitive to energy-sector decarbonization and could reach nearly "net zero" by 2040.