Global diversity dynamics in the fossil record are regionally heterogeneous

The fate of South America's endemic mammalian fauna in response to the most dramatic Cenozoic climate disruption

Around 34 Mya, the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) marked the most dramatic global climatic cooling of the Cenozoic. On a planetary scale, paleontological evidence suggests that this transition was associated with major faunal turnovers, sometimes even regarded as a mass extinction crisis. In South America, there is no consensus on the response of the endemic mammals to this transition. Here, using a vetted fossil dataset and cutting-edge Bayesian methods, we analyzed the dynamics of South American mammal (SAM) diversification and their possible drivers across latitude (tropical vs. extratropical), taxonomic groups, and trophic guilds throughout the Eocene-Oligocene (ca. 56 to 23 Ma). Our results did not evidence any mass extinction among SAM at the EOT. Instead, they experienced a gradual and long-term diversity decline from the middle Eocene to the early Oligocene, followed by a sudden waxing-and-waning diversity associated with a large taxonomic-but not ecological-turnover. Tropical and extratropical lineages have had very distinct macroevolutionary histories. No effective change in the pace at which tropical lineages diversify was found, thus favoring the tropical stability hypothesis proposed by Wallace. Diversity-dependent effects, temperature, and Andean uplift were recovered as probable drivers of SAM diversification across the period. Contrasting evidence casts doubt on the common hypothesis primarily linking Oligocene faunal changes to grassland expansion. Our findings illustrate the uniqueness of the deep-time interplay between endemic SAM and their physical environment in a context of climatic shift, highlighting the need to consider regional idiosyncrasies for understanding the coevolution of life and climate.

The structure of the end-Cretaceous dinosaur fossil record in North America

Whether non-avian dinosaurs were in decline prior to their extinction 66 million years ago remains a contentious topic. This uncertainty arises from spatiotemporal sampling inconsistency and data absence, which cause challenges in distinguishing between genuine biological trends and sampling artifacts. Consequently, there is an inherent interest in better quantifying the quality of the data and concomitant biases of the dinosaur fossil record. To elucidate the structure of this record and the nature of the biases impacting it, we integrate paleoclimatic, geographic, and fossil data within a Bayesian occupancy modeling framework to simultaneously estimate the probability of dinosaurs occupying and being detected in sites across North America throughout the latest Cretaceous for the first time. We find that apparent declines in occupancy generated from the raw fossil record do not match modeled occupancy probability, which generally remained stable throughout the latest Cretaceous. Instead, they coincide with decreased probability of detecting dinosaur occurrences, despite high overall sampling during this interval. By incorporating model covariates, we additionally reveal that detection probability is directly and significantly influenced by the available area of geological outcrop and modern land cover. Our findings offer evidence that traditional comparisons of diversity estimates between time intervals are likely inaccurate due to underlying structural issues in the geological record operating at both local and regional scales. This study underscores the utility of occupancy modeling as a novel approach in paleobiology for quantifying the impact of heterogeneous sampling on the available fossil record.

The spatiotemporal distribution of Mesozoic dinosaur diversity

Much of our view on Mesozoic dinosaur diversity is obscured by biases in the fossil record. In particular, spatiotemporal sampling heterogeneity affects identification of the timing and geographical location of radiations, the recognition of the latitudinal diversity gradient, as well as interpretation of purported extinctions, faunal turnovers and their drivers, including the Early Jurassic Jenkyns Event and across the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary. The current distribution of sampling means it is impossible to robustly determine whether these 'events' were globally synchronous and geologically instantaneous or spatiotemporally staggered. Accounting for sampling heterogeneity is also paramount to reconciling notable differences in results based on sampling-standardized dinosaur species richness versus reconstructions of diversification rates, particularly with regards to the lead-up to the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction. Incorporation of a greater proportion of stratigraphically well-resolved dinosaurs into analyses is also imperative and must include the substantial Mesozoic radiation of birds. Given the relative rarity of temporally successive, well-sampled spatial windows, it remains possible that dinosaur species richness and diversification rate showed little change after the clade's initial radiation until the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary. However, better understanding of underlying sampling, combined with a holistic approach to reconstructing dinosaur diversity and diversification, is an important step in testing this hypothesis.

Swiss ichthyosaurs: a review

Switzerland is an ichthyosaur country: it has a rich record of marine reptile fossils, particularly the fish-shaped ichthyosaurs, and the according research. Here, we provide an overview over the 12 or more genera and at least 13 species plus numerous fragmentary remains of ichthyosaurs from the Triassic to the Cretaceous that have been discovered in twelve cantons thus far, of which four species are based on Swiss holotypes. This wealth of ichthyosaur species can be explained by their abundance in the Middle Triassic conservation deposits (Konservat Lagerstätte) of Monte San Giorgio, as well as occasional discoveries in strata of Middle Triassic to Early Cretaceous age. The moderate abundance of outcrops in reasonable conditions in combination with the long history of palaeontological research in Switzerland explains this good fossil record. In addition to this unique overview, we provide more data for further studies and update the knowledge of these taxa.

Late Cretaceous ammonoids show that drivers of diversification are regionally heterogeneous

Palaeontologists have long sought to explain the diversification of individual clades to whole biotas at global scales. Advances in our understanding of the spatial distribution of the fossil record through geological time, however, has demonstrated that global trends in biodiversity were a mosaic of regionally heterogeneous diversification processes. Drivers of diversification must presumably have also displayed regional variation to produce the spatial disparities observed in past taxonomic richness. Here, we analyse the fossil record of ammonoids, pelagic shelled cephalopods, through the Late Cretaceous, characterised by some palaeontologists as an interval of biotic decline prior to their total extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. We regionally subdivide this record to eliminate the impacts of spatial sampling biases and infer regional origination and extinction rates corrected for temporal sampling biases using Bayesian methods. We then model these rates using biotic and abiotic drivers commonly inferred to influence diversification. Ammonoid diversification dynamics and responses to this common set of diversity drivers were regionally heterogeneous, do not support ecological decline, and demonstrate that their global diversification signal is influenced by spatial disparities in sampling effort. These results call into question the feasibility of seeking drivers of diversity at global scales in the fossil record.

DeepDive: estimating global biodiversity patterns through time using deep learning

Understanding how biodiversity has changed through time is a central goal of evolutionary biology. However, estimates of past biodiversity are challenged by the inherent incompleteness of the fossil record, even when state-of-the-art statistical methods are applied to adjust estimates while correcting for sampling biases. Here we develop an approach based on stochastic simulations of biodiversity and a deep learning model to infer richness at global or regional scales through time while incorporating spatial, temporal and taxonomic sampling variation. Our method outperforms alternative approaches across simulated datasets, especially at large spatial scales, providing robust palaeodiversity estimates under a wide range of preservation scenarios. We apply our method on two empirical datasets of different taxonomic and temporal scope: the Permian-Triassic record of marine animals and the Cenozoic evolution of proboscideans. Our estimates provide a revised quantitative assessment of two mass extinctions in the marine record and reveal rapid diversification of proboscideans following their expansion out of Africa and a >70% diversity drop in the Pleistocene.

Bayesian analyses indicate bivalves did not drive the downfall of brachiopods following the Permian-Triassic mass extinction

Certain times of major biotic replacement have often been interpreted as broadly competitive, mediated by innovation in the succeeding clades. A classic example was the switch from brachiopods to bivalves as major seabed organisms following the Permian-Triassic mass extinction (PTME), ~252 million years ago. This was attributed to competitive exclusion of brachiopods by the better adapted bivalves or simply to the fact that brachiopods had been hit especially hard by the PTME. The brachiopod-bivalve switch is emblematic of the global turnover of marine faunas from Palaeozoic-type to Modern-type triggered by the PTME. Here, using Bayesian analyses, we find that unexpectedly the two clades displayed similar large-scale trends of diversification before the Jurassic. Insight from a multivariate birth-death model shows that the extinction of major brachiopod clades during the PTME set the stage for the brachiopod-bivalve switch, with differential responses to high ocean temperatures post-extinction further facilitating their displacement by bivalves. Our study strengthens evidence that brachiopods and bivalves were not competitors over macroevolutionary time scales, with extinction events and environmental stresses shaping their divergent fates.

Explanations for latitudinal diversity gradients must invoke rate variation

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) describes the pattern of increasing numbers of species from the poles to the equator. Although recognized for over 200 years, the mechanisms responsible for the largest-scale and longest-known pattern in macroecology are still actively debated. I argue here that any explanation for the LDG must invoke differential rates of speciation, extinction, extirpation, or dispersal. These processes themselves may be governed by numerous abiotic or biotic factors. Hypotheses that claim not to invoke differential rates, such as 'age and area' or 'time for diversification', eschew focus from rate variation that is assumed by these explanations. There is still significant uncertainty in how rates of speciation, extinction, extirpation, and dispersal have varied regionally over Earth history. However, to better understand the development of LDGs, we need to better constrain this variation. Only then will the drivers of such rate variation - be they abiotic or biotic in nature - become clearer.

Challenges and directions in analytical paleobiology

Over the last 50 years, access to new data and analytical tools has expanded the study of analytical paleobiology, contributing to innovative analyses of biodiversity dynamics over Earth's history. Despite-or even spurred by-this growing availability of resources, analytical paleobiology faces deep-rooted obstacles that stem from the need for more equitable access to data and best practices to guide analyses of the fossil record. Recent progress has been accelerated by a collective push toward more collaborative, interdisciplinary, and open science, especially by early-career researchers. Here, we survey four challenges facing analytical paleobiology from an early-career perspective: (1) accounting for biases when interpreting the fossil record; (2) integrating fossil and modern biodiversity data; (3) building data science skills; and (4) increasing data accessibility and equity. We discuss recent efforts to address each challenge, highlight persisting barriers, and identify tools that have advanced analytical work. Given the inherent linkages between these challenges, we encourage discourse across disciplines to find common solutions. We also affirm the need for systemic changes that reevaluate how we conduct and share paleobiological research.

Combining palaeontological and neontological data shows a delayed diversification burst of carcharhiniform sharks likely mediated by environmental change

Estimating deep-time species-level diversification processes remains challenging. Both the fossil record and molecular phylogenies allow the estimation of speciation and extinction rates, but each type of data may still provide an incomplete picture of diversification dynamics. Here, we combine species-level palaeontological (fossil occurrences) and neontological (molecular phylogenies) data to estimate deep-time diversity dynamics through process-based birth-death models for Carcharhiniformes, the most speciose shark order today. Despite their abundant fossil record dating back to the Middle Jurassic, only a small fraction of extant carcharhiniform species is recorded as fossils, which impedes relying only on the fossil record to study their recent diversification. Combining fossil and phylogenetic data, we recover a complex evolutionary history for carcharhiniforms, exemplified by several variations in diversification rates with an early low diversity period followed by a Cenozoic radiation. We further reveal a burst of diversification in the last 30 million years, which is partially recorded with fossil data only. We also find that reef expansion and temperature change can explain variations in speciation and extinction through time. These results pinpoint the primordial importance of these environmental variables in the evolution of marine clades. Our study also highlights the benefit of combining the fossil record with phylogenetic data to address macroevolutionary questions.

Multiple drivers and lineage-specific insect extinctions during the Permo-Triassic

The Permo-Triassic interval encompasses three extinction events including the most dramatic biological crisis of the Phanerozoic, the latest Permian mass extinction. However, their drivers and outcomes are poorly quantified and understood for terrestrial invertebrates, which we assess here for insects. We find a pattern with three extinctions: the Roadian/Wordian (≈266.9 Ma; extinction of 64.5% insect genera), the Permian/Triassic (≈252 Ma; extinction of 82.6% insect genera), and the Ladinian/Carnian boundaries (≈237 Ma; extinction of 74.8% insect genera). We also unveil a heterogeneous effect of these extinction events across the major insect clades. Because extinction events have impacted Permo-Triassic ecosystems, we investigate the influence of abiotic and biotic factors on insect diversification dynamics and find that changes in floral assemblages are likely the strongest drivers of insects' responses throughout the Permo-Triassic. We also assess the effect of diversity dependence between three insect guilds; an effect ubiquitously found in current ecosystems. We find that herbivores held a central position in the Permo-Triassic interaction network. Our study reveals high levels of insect extinction that profoundly shaped the evolutionary history of the most diverse non-microbial lineage.

Diversity dependence is a ubiquitous phenomenon across Phanerozoic oceans

Biodiversity on Earth is shaped by abiotic perturbations and rapid diversifications. At the same time, there are arguments that biodiversity is bounded and regulated via biotic interactions. Evaluating the role and relative strength of diversity regulation is crucial for interpreting the ongoing biodiversity changes. We have analyzed Phanerozoic fossil record using public databases and new approaches for identifying the causal dependence of origination and extinction rates on environmental variables and standing diversity. While the effect of environmental factors on origination and extinction rates is variable and taxon specific, the diversity dependence of the rates is almost universal across the studied taxa. Origination rates are dependent on instantaneous diversity levels, while extinction rates reveal delayed diversity dependence. Although precise mechanisms of diversity dependence may be complex and difficult to recover, global regulation of diversity via negative diversity dependence of lineage diversification seems to be a common feature of the biosphere, with profound consequences for understanding current biodiversity crisis.

Short-term paleogeographic reorganizations and climate events shaped diversification of North American freshwater gastropods over deep time

What controls species diversity and diversification is one of the major questions in evolutionary biology and paleontology. Previous studies have addressed this issue based on various plant and animal groups, geographic regions, and time intervals. However, as most previous research focused on terrestrial or marine ecosystems, our understanding of the controls on diversification of biota (and particularly invertebrates) in freshwater environments in deep time is still limited. Here, we infer diversification rates of North American freshwater gastropods from the Late Triassic to the Pleistocene and explore potential links between shifts in speciation and extinction and major changes in paleogeography, climate, and biotic interactions. We found that variation in the speciation rate is best explained by changes in continental fragmentation, with rate shifts coinciding with major paleogeographic reorganizations in the Mesozoic, in particular the retreat of the Sundance Sea and subsequent development of the Bighorn wetland and the advance of the Western Interior Seaway. Climatic events in the Cenozoic (Middle Eocene Climate Optimum, Miocene Climate Optimum) variably coincide with shifts in speciation and extinction as well, but no significant long-term association could be detected. Similarly, no influence of diversity dependence was found across the entire time frame of ~ 214 Myr. Our results indicate that short-term climatic events and paleogeographic changes are relevant to the diversification of continental freshwater biota, while long-term trends have limited effect.