Tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard resilience in a changing climate

A Flexible Framework for Urgent Public Health Climate Action

Climate change poses profound threats to human safety, health, and well-being. Public health agencies, especially state, territorial, local, and Tribal health departments, can play an essential role in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Public health climate action can protect health, promote health equity, and increase climate change resilience. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has updated its original climate and health framework for practitioners and expanded its utility by developing practical guidance. The revised framework, Building Resilience Against Climate Effects, supports health departments and their partners by providing an accessible approach that can be tailored to different contexts. The framework has been updated to center justice, equity, and belonging; integrate climate change mitigation or reduction of greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change; and address agency capacity. The Building Resilience Against Climate Effects framework also emphasizes collaboration, especially cross-sectoral and community partnerships, communication, and evaluation. Framework elements, key tactics, and guiding principles are presented in a pragmatic, step-by-step implementation guide. The implementation guide can be used by state, territorial, local, and Tribal health departments to galvanize or expand their engagement with public health climate action, which grows more urgent each year. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print May 22, 2025:e1-e12. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2025.308061).

Hurricane Ida's blackout-heatwave compound risk in a changing climate

The emerging tropical cyclone (TC)-blackout-heatwave compound risk under climate change is not well understood. In this study, we employ projections of TCs, sea level rise, and heatwaves, in conjunction with power system resilience modeling, to evaluate historical and future TC-blackout-heatwave compound risk in Louisiana, US. We find that the return period for a compound event comparable to Hurricane Ida (2021), with approximately 35 million customer hours of simultaneous power outage and heatwave exposure in Louisiana, is around 278 years in the historical climate of 1980-2005. Under the SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario, this return period is projected to decrease to 16.2 years by 2070-2100, a ~17 times reduction. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, it decreases to 23.1 years, representing a ~12 times reduction. Heatwave intensification is the primary driver of this increased risk, reducing the return period by approximately 5 times under SSP5-8.5 and 3 times under SSP2-4.5. Increased TC activity is the second driver, reducing the return period by 40% and 34% under the respective scenarios. These findings enhance our understanding of compound climate hazards and inform climate adaptation strategies.

Quantifying cascading power outages during climate extremes considering renewable energy integration

Climate extremes, such as hurricanes, combined with large-scale integration of environment-sensitive renewables, could exacerbate the risk of widespread power outages. We introduce a coupled climate-energy model for cascading power outages, which comprehensively captures the impacts of climate extremes on renewable generation, and transmission and distribution networks. The model is validated with the 2022 Puerto Rico catastrophic blackout during Hurricane Fiona - a unique system-wide blackout event with complete records of weather-induced outages. The model reveals a resilience pattern that was not captured by the previous models: early failure of certain critical components enhances overall system resilience. Sensitivity analysis on various scenarios of behind-the-meter solar integration demonstrates that lower integration levels (below 45%, including the current level) exhibit minimal impact on system resilience in this event. However, surpassing this critical level without pairing it with energy storage can exacerbate the probability of catastrophic blackouts.

Impacts of heatwaves on electricity reliability: Evidence from power outage data in China

Heatwaves, driven by climate change, have increasingly challenged energy systems with increased demand and reduced supply, leading to power outages. This study empirically examines the impact of heatwaves on power outages, employing fixed-effects models and using high-frequency outage data from China (2019-2021). The results indicate that heatwaves increase the frequency of outages by 3.9%-4.0% and extend their duration by 7.9%-8.3%. Additionally, each degree of temperature rise increases outages by 0.1%, and an additional heatwave day raises outages by 0.5%. We also observed heterogeneity in outage impacts across different socio-demographic groups. Furthermore, projections under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 show that outages will increase by 5.2%-12.5% in 2030 and 7.4%-20.3% in 2050. These findings underscore the urgency of grid upgrades and provide insights for resource allocation to adaptation to climate change.

Management of resilient urban integrated energy system: State-of-the-art and future directions

The urban integrated energy system (UIES) is the fundamental infrastructure supporting the operation of resilient cities. The resilience of UIES plays a critical role in effectively responding to extreme events. We provide a comprehensive review on the management of resilient UIES. Firstly, we examine the existing studies on the resilience of UIES through quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Secondly, it points out that the coupling characteristics of UIES have a dual impact on resilience. The definition of UIES resilience can be understood from three perspectives, namely partial resilience versus total resilience, physical resilience versus digital resilience, and current resilience versus future resilience. Thirdly, this review summarizes the strategies for improving the resilience of UIES across three distinct stages, namely before, during, and after extreme events. The resilience of UIES can be enhanced by effective measures to prediction, adaptation, and assessment. Finally, the challenges faced by management of resilient UIES are presented and discussed, in terms of mitigating compound risks, modeling complex systems, addressing data collection and quality issue, and collaborating within multi stakeholders.

Heat-related mortality and ambulance transport after a power outage in the Tokyo metropolitan area

Background

Air conditioners can prevent heat-related illness and mortality, but the increased use of air conditioners may enhance susceptibility to heat-related illnesses during large-scale power failures. Here, we examined the risks of heat-related illness ambulance transport (HIAT) and mortality associated with typhoon-related electricity reduction (ER) in the summer months in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

Methods

We conducted event study analyses to compare temperature-HIAT and mortality associations before and after the power outage (July to September 2019). To better understand the role of temperature during the power outage, we then examined whether the temperature-HIAT and mortality associations were modified by different power outage levels (0%, 10%, and 20% ER). We computed the ratios of relative risks to compare the risks associated with various ER values to the risks associated without ER.

Results

We analyzed the data of 14,912 HIAT cases and 74,064 deaths. Overall, 93,200 power outage cases were observed when the typhoon hit. Event study results showed that the incidence rate ratio was 2.01 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.42, 2.84) with effects enduring up to 6 days, and 1.11 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.22) for mortality on the first 3 days after the typhoon hit. Comparing 20% to 0% ER, the ratios of relative risks of heat exposure were 2.32 (95% CI = 1.41, 3.82) for HIAT and 0.95 (95% CI = 0.75, 1.22) for mortality.

Conclusions

A 20% ER was associated with a two-fold greater risk of HIAT because of summer heat during the power outage, but there was little evidence for the association with all-cause mortality.

Atmospheric-moisture-induced polyacrylate hydrogels for hybrid passive cooling

Heat stress is being exacerbated by global warming, jeopardizing human and social sustainability. As a result, reliable and energy-efficient cooling methods are highly sought-after. Here, we report a polyacrylate film fabricated by self-moisture-absorbing hygroscopic hydrogel for efficient hybrid passive cooling. Using one of the lowest-cost industrial materials (e.g., sodium polyacrylate), we demonstrate radiative cooling by reducing solar heating with high solar reflectance (0.93) while maximizing thermal emission with high mid-infrared emittance (0.99). Importantly, the manufacturing process utilizes only atmospheric moisture and requires no additional chemicals or energy consumption, making it a completely green process. Under sunlight illumination of 800 W m-2, the surface temperature of the film was reduced by 5 °C under a partly cloudy sky observed at Buffalo, NY. Combined with its hygroscopic feature, this film can simultaneously introduce evaporative cooling that is independent of access to the clear sky. The hybrid passive cooling approach is projected to decrease global carbon emissions by 118.4 billion kg/year compared to current air-conditioning facilities powered by electricity. Given its low-cost raw materials and excellent molding feature, the film can be manufactured through simple and cost-effective roll-to-roll processes, making it suitable for future building construction and personal thermal management needs.

A net-zero emissions strategy for China's power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage

Decarbonized power systems are critical to mitigate climate change, yet methods to achieve a reliable and resilient near-zero power system are still under exploration. This study develops an hourly power system simulation model considering high-resolution geological constraints for carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage to explore the optimal solution for a reliable and resilient near-zero power system. This is applied to 31 provinces in China by simulating 10,450 scenarios combining different electricity storage durations and interprovincial transmission capacities, with various shares of abated fossil power with carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage. Here, we show that allowing up to 20% abated fossil fuel power generation in the power system could reduce the national total power shortage rate by up to 9.0 percentages in 2050 compared with a zero fossil fuel system. A lowest-cost scenario with 16% abated fossil fuel power generation in the system even causes 2.5% lower investment costs in the network (or $16.8 billion), and also increases system resilience by reducing power shortage during extreme climatic events.