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Zhang M, Xu X, Zhang T, Liu Z, Wang X, Shi X, Peng W, Wang X, Chen Z, Zhao R, Wang W, Zhang Y, Jin Z, Zhou Y, Ma Z. The dynamics of wild Vitis species in response to climate change facilitate the breeding of grapevine and its rootstocks with climate resilience. HORTICULTURE RESEARCH 2025; 12:uhaf104. [PMID: 40406503 PMCID: PMC12096287 DOI: 10.1093/hr/uhaf104] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2024] [Accepted: 04/01/2025] [Indexed: 05/26/2025]
Abstract
Climate change presents significant challenges to agricultural suitability and food security, largely due to the limited adaptability of domesticated crops. However, crop wild relatives maintain greater diversity and are well adapted to various environments. This study evaluates the potential distributional responses of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) and its wild relatives (Vitis spp.) to future climate change using the maximum entropy model. We reveal that the annual mean temperature is the primary factor determining the potential distribution of cultivated grapes. By 2080, under the SSP585 scenario, suitable areas for wine and table grapes are predicted to decline by 1.5 million and 1.3 million km 2, respectively. The results suggest that grape cultivation, especially for table grapes, is highly vulnerable to future climate change. In contrast, approximately 70% of wild grapes are projected to demonstrate robust adaptability to future conditions. For example, wild grapes from North America, such as Vitis rotundifolia and Vitis labrusca, and from East Asia, such as Vitis heyneana and Vitis davidii, are projected to demonstrate significant adaptability in response to future climate change. These wild grapes are valuable genetic resources for improving the resilience of cultivated grapes through rootstock development and breeding programs to face the climate change. Our results predict the potential future distribution areas of wild grapes and highlight the critical role of their genetic resources in grape breeding for promoting adaptation to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mengyan Zhang
- National Key Laboratory of Tropical Crop Breeding, Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Laboratory of Lingnan Modern Agriculture, Key Laboratory of Synthetic Biology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Buxin road No. 97, Dapeng district, Shenzhen, China
- School of Agriculture and Food Science, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland
| | - Xiaodong Xu
- National Key Laboratory of Tropical Crop Breeding, Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Laboratory of Lingnan Modern Agriculture, Key Laboratory of Synthetic Biology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Buxin road No. 97, Dapeng district, Shenzhen, China
| | - Tianhao Zhang
- National Key Laboratory of Tropical Crop Breeding, Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Laboratory of Lingnan Modern Agriculture, Key Laboratory of Synthetic Biology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Buxin road No. 97, Dapeng district, Shenzhen, China
| | - Zhenya Liu
- National Key Laboratory of Tropical Crop Breeding, Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Laboratory of Lingnan Modern Agriculture, Key Laboratory of Synthetic Biology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Buxin road No. 97, Dapeng district, Shenzhen, China
| | - Xingyi Wang
- National Key Laboratory of Tropical Crop Breeding, Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Laboratory of Lingnan Modern Agriculture, Key Laboratory of Synthetic Biology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Buxin road No. 97, Dapeng district, Shenzhen, China
- College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Qinghua road No. 35, Haidian district, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoya Shi
- National Key Laboratory of Tropical Crop Breeding, Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Laboratory of Lingnan Modern Agriculture, Key Laboratory of Synthetic Biology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Buxin road No. 97, Dapeng district, Shenzhen, China
| | - Wenjing Peng
- National Key Laboratory of Tropical Crop Breeding, Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Laboratory of Lingnan Modern Agriculture, Key Laboratory of Synthetic Biology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Buxin road No. 97, Dapeng district, Shenzhen, China
| | - Xu Wang
- National Key Laboratory of Tropical Crop Breeding, Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Laboratory of Lingnan Modern Agriculture, Key Laboratory of Synthetic Biology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Buxin road No. 97, Dapeng district, Shenzhen, China
- School of Agriculture and Food Science, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland
| | - Zhuyifu Chen
- National Key Laboratory of Tropical Crop Breeding, Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Laboratory of Lingnan Modern Agriculture, Key Laboratory of Synthetic Biology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Buxin road No. 97, Dapeng district, Shenzhen, China
- School of Agriculture and Food Science, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland
| | - Ruoyan Zhao
- National Key Laboratory of Tropical Crop Breeding, Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Laboratory of Lingnan Modern Agriculture, Key Laboratory of Synthetic Biology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Buxin road No. 97, Dapeng district, Shenzhen, China
| | - Wenrui Wang
- National Key Laboratory of Tropical Crop Breeding, Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Laboratory of Lingnan Modern Agriculture, Key Laboratory of Synthetic Biology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Buxin road No. 97, Dapeng district, Shenzhen, China
| | - Yi Zhang
- National Key Laboratory of Tropical Crop Breeding, Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Laboratory of Lingnan Modern Agriculture, Key Laboratory of Synthetic Biology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Buxin road No. 97, Dapeng district, Shenzhen, China
| | - Zhongxin Jin
- National Key Laboratory of Tropical Crop Breeding, Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Laboratory of Lingnan Modern Agriculture, Key Laboratory of Synthetic Biology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Buxin road No. 97, Dapeng district, Shenzhen, China
| | - Yongfeng Zhou
- National Key Laboratory of Tropical Crop Breeding, Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Laboratory of Lingnan Modern Agriculture, Key Laboratory of Synthetic Biology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Buxin road No. 97, Dapeng district, Shenzhen, China
- National Key Laboratory of Tropical Crop Breeding, Tropical Crops Genetic Resources Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Xueyuan road No. 4, Longhua district, Haikou, China
| | - Zhiyao Ma
- National Key Laboratory of Tropical Crop Breeding, Shenzhen Branch, Guangdong Laboratory of Lingnan Modern Agriculture, Key Laboratory of Synthetic Biology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Buxin road No. 97, Dapeng district, Shenzhen, China
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Martín-Gómez JJ, Rodríguez-Lorenzo JL, Espinosa-Roldán FE, de Santamaría FCS, Muñoz-Organero G, Tocino Á, Cervantes E. Seed Morphometry Reveals Two Major Groups in Spanish Grapevine Cultivars. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2025; 14:1522. [PMID: 40431087 PMCID: PMC12115216 DOI: 10.3390/plants14101522] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2025] [Revised: 05/15/2025] [Accepted: 05/16/2025] [Indexed: 05/29/2025]
Abstract
Seed morphological description requires quantitative methods for further comparison. Here, traditional measurements, curvature analysis, and the J-index (percentage of similarity to a geometric model) were applied to the average contours (Acs) of 271 Vitis cultivars from the Spanish collection at IMIDRA (Madrid, Spain), including 9 different Vitis species and several sylvestris seeds (i.e., those derived from plants that once grew in the wild). Acs are graphical representations of the shape in seed populations, which can be obtained either from image analysis programs or computationally opening the way to quantitative analysis. A geometric model is a geometrically defined, closed curve, used as a reference for shape quantification. Based on existing differences between the Hebén cultivar (collected in 2020 and 2024; Hebén model, for morphotype 1) and the European varieties Chenin and Gewurztraminer (Chenin model, for morphotype 2), we created two models. The comparisons were based on a J-index, resulting in four groups: Group 1 contained all seeds with values lower than 90 for both models and included all Vitis species other than V. vinifera and most sylvestris seeds; Groups 2 and 3 contained seeds with J-index values higher than 94 for the Hebén and Chenin models, respectively. Group 4 consisted of seeds not included in the other groups. Based on J-index values, differences in curvature and solidity, and PCA analysis with Fourier coefficients, this work defines two new morphotypes associated with the Hebén (Group 2) and Chenin (Group 3) models, related to Iberian and Western European varieties, respectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- José Javier Martín-Gómez
- Instituto de Recursos Naturales y Agrobiología de Salamanca (IRNASA)—Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Cordel de Merinas, 40, 37008 Salamanca, Spain;
| | - José Luis Rodríguez-Lorenzo
- Plant Developmental Genetics, Institute of Biophysics v.v.i, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Královopolská 135, 612 65 Brno, Czech Republic;
| | - Francisco Emanuel Espinosa-Roldán
- Instituto Madrileño de Investigación y Desarrollo Rural Agrario y Alimentario (IMIDRA), Finca El Encín, 28805 Alcalá de Henares, Spain; (F.E.E.-R.); (F.C.S.d.S.); (G.M.-O.)
| | - Félix Cabello Sáenz de Santamaría
- Instituto Madrileño de Investigación y Desarrollo Rural Agrario y Alimentario (IMIDRA), Finca El Encín, 28805 Alcalá de Henares, Spain; (F.E.E.-R.); (F.C.S.d.S.); (G.M.-O.)
| | - Gregorio Muñoz-Organero
- Instituto Madrileño de Investigación y Desarrollo Rural Agrario y Alimentario (IMIDRA), Finca El Encín, 28805 Alcalá de Henares, Spain; (F.E.E.-R.); (F.C.S.d.S.); (G.M.-O.)
| | - Ángel Tocino
- Departament of Matemathics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Salamanca, Plaza de la Merced 1–4, 37008 Salamanca, Spain;
| | - Emilio Cervantes
- Instituto de Recursos Naturales y Agrobiología de Salamanca (IRNASA)—Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Cordel de Merinas, 40, 37008 Salamanca, Spain;
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