A statistical perspective on baseline adjustment in pharmacogenomic genome-wide association studies of quantitative change

Statistical assessment of biomarker replicability using MAJAR method

In the era of precision medicine, many biomarkers have been discovered to be associated with drug efficacy and safety responses, which can be used for patient stratification and drug response prediction. Due to the small sample size and limited power of randomized clinical studies, meta-analysis is usually conducted to aggregate all available studies to maximize the power for identifying prognostic and predictive biomarkers. However, it is often challenging to find an independent study to replicate the discoveries from the meta-analysis (e.g. meta-analysis of pharmacogenomics genome-wide association studies (PGx GWAS)), which seriously limits the potential impacts of the discovered biomarkers. To overcome this challenge, we develop a novel statistical framework, MAJAR (meta-analysis of joint effect associations for biomarker replicability assessment), to jointly test prognostic and predictive effects and assess the replicability of identified biomarkers by implementing an enhanced expectation-maximization algorithm and calculating their posterior-probability-of-replicabilities and Bayesian false discovery rates (Fdr). Extensive simulation studies were conducted to compare the performance of MAJAR and existing methods in terms of Fdr, power, and computational efficiency. The simulation results showed improved statistical power with well-controlled Fdr of MAJAR over existing methods and robustness to outliers under different data generation processes. We further demonstrated the advantages of MAJAR over existing methods by applying MAJAR to the PGx GWAS summary statistics data from a large cardiovascular randomized clinical trial. Compared to testing main effects only, MAJAR identified 12 novel variants associated with the treatment-related low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction from baseline.

Pharmacogenomics polygenic risk score for drug response prediction using PRS-PGx methods

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have been successfully developed for the prediction of human diseases and complex traits in the past years. For drug response prediction in randomized clinical trials, a common practice is to apply PRS built from a disease genome-wide association study (GWAS) directly to a corresponding pharmacogenomics (PGx) setting. Here, we show that such an approach relies on stringent assumptions about the prognostic and predictive effects of the selected genetic variants. We propose a shift from disease PRS to PGx PRS approaches by simultaneously modeling both the prognostic and predictive effects and further make this shift possible by developing a series of PRS-PGx methods, including a novel Bayesian regression approach (PRS-PGx-Bayes). Simulation studies show that PRS-PGx methods generally outperform the disease PRS methods and PRS-PGx-Bayes is superior to all other PRS-PGx methods. We further apply the PRS-PGx methods to PGx GWAS data from a large cardiovascular randomized clinical trial (IMPROVE-IT) to predict treatment related LDL cholesterol reduction. The results demonstrate substantial improvement of PRS-PGx-Bayes in both prediction accuracy and the capability of capturing the treatment-specific predictive effects while compared with the disease PRS approaches.

To try to predict an individual’s drug response using genetic data, most studies have used traditional polygenic risk score (PRS) methods. Here, the authors develop a pharmacogenomics-specific PRS method, which can improve drug response prediction and patient stratification in pharmacogenomics studies.