Ecological opportunity and upward prey-predator radiation cascades

Origin of the Laurentian Great Lakes fish fauna through upward adaptive radiation cascade prior to the Last Glacial Maximum

The evolutionary histories of adaptive radiations can be marked by dramatic demographic fluctuations. However, the demographic histories of ecologically-linked co-diversifying lineages remain understudied. The Laurentian Great Lakes provide a unique system of two such radiations that are dispersed across depth gradients with a predator-prey relationship. We show that the North American Coregonus species complex ("ciscoes") radiated rapidly prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (80-90 kya), a globally warm period, followed by rapid expansion in population size. Similar patterns of demographic expansion were observed in the predator species, Lake Charr (Salvelinus namaycush), following a brief time lag, which we hypothesize was driven by predator-prey dynamics. Diversification of prey into deep water created ecological opportunities for the predators, facilitating their demographic expansion, which is consistent with an upward adaptive radiation cascade. This study provides a new timeline and environmental context for the origin of the Laurentian Great Lakes fish fauna, and firmly establishes this system as drivers of ecological diversification and rapid speciation through cyclical glaciation.

Biotic Interactions and the Future of Fishes on Coral Reefs: The Importance of Trait-Based Approaches

Biotic interactions govern the structure and function of coral reef ecosystems. As environmental conditions change, reef-associated fish populations can persist by tracking their preferred niche or adapting to new conditions. Biotic interactions will affect how these responses proceed and whether they are successful. Yet, our understanding of these effects is currently limited. Ecological and evolutionary theories make explicit predictions about the effects of biotic interactions, but many remain untested. Here, we argue that large-scale functional trait datasets enable us to investigate how biotic interactions have shaped the assembly of contemporary reef fish communities and the evolution of species within them, thus improving our ability to predict future changes. Importantly, the effects of biotic interactions on these processes have occurred simultaneously within dynamic environments. Functional traits provide a means to integrate the effects of both ecological and evolutionary processes, as well as a way to overcome some of the challenges of studying biotic interactions. Moreover, functional trait data can enhance predictive modeling of future reef fish distributions and evolvability. We hope that our vision for an integrative approach, focused on quantifying functionally relevant traits and how they mediate biotic interactions in different environmental contexts, will catalyze new research on the future of reef fishes in a changing environment.

Productivity, niche availability, species richness, and extinction risk: Untangling relationships using individual-based simulations

It has often been suggested that the productivity of an ecosystem affects the number of species that it can support. Despite decades of study, the nature, extent, and underlying mechanisms of this relationship are unclear. One suggested mechanism is the "more individuals" hypothesis (MIH). This proposes that productivity controls the number of individuals in the ecosystem, and that more individuals can be divided into a greater number of species before their population size is sufficiently small for each to be at substantial risk of extinction. Here, we test this hypothesis using REvoSim: an individual-based eco-evolutionary system that simulates the evolution and speciation of populations over geological time, allowing phenomena occurring over timescales that cannot be easily observed in the real world to be evaluated. The individual-based nature of this system allows us to remove assumptions about the nature of speciation and extinction that previous models have had to make. Many of the predictions of the MIH are supported in our simulations: Rare species are more likely to undergo extinction than common species, and species richness scales with productivity. However, we also find support for relationships that contradict the predictions of the strict MIH: species population size scales with productivity, and species extinction risk is better predicted by relative than absolute species population size, apparently due to increased competition when total community abundance is higher. Furthermore, we show that the scaling of species richness with productivity depends upon the ability of species to partition niche space. Consequently, we suggest that the MIH is applicable only to ecosystems in which niche partitioning has not been halted by species saturation. Some hypotheses regarding patterns of biodiversity implicitly or explicitly overlook niche theory in favor of neutral explanations, as has historically been the case with the MIH. Our simulations demonstrate that niche theory exerts a control on the applicability of the MIH and thus needs to be accounted for in macroecology.