In-depth data on the network structure and hourly activity of the Central Chilean power grid

Bayesian inference of transition matrices from incomplete graph data with a topological prior

Many network analysis and graph learning techniques are based on discrete- or continuous-time models of random walks. To apply these methods, it is necessary to infer transition matrices that formalize the underlying stochastic process in an observed graph. For weighted graphs, where weighted edges capture observations of repeated interactions between nodes, it is common to estimate the entries of such transition matrices based on the (relative) weights of edges. However in real-world settings we are often confronted with incomplete data, which turns the construction of the transition matrix based on a weighted graph into an inference problem. Moreover, we often have access to additional information, which capture topological constraints of the system, i.e. which edges in a weighted graph are (theoretically) possible and which are not. Examples include transportation networks, where we may have access to a small sample of passenger trajectories as well as the physical topology of connections, or a limited set of observed social interactions with additional information on the underlying social structure. Combining these two different sources of information to reliably infer transition matrices from incomplete data on repeated interactions is an important open challenge, with severe implications for the reliability of downstream network analysis tasks. Addressing this issue, we show that including knowledge on such topological constraints can considerably improve the inference of transition matrices, especially in situations where we only have a small number of observed interactions. To this end, we derive an analytically tractable Bayesian method that uses repeated interactions and a topological prior to perform data-efficient inference of transition matrices. We compare our approach against commonly used frequentist and Bayesian approaches both in synthetic data and in five real-world datasets, and we find that our method recovers the transition probabilities with higher accuracy. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the method is robust even in cases when the knowledge of the topological constraint is partial. Lastly, we show that this higher accuracy improves the results for downstream network analysis tasks like cluster detection and node ranking, which highlights the practical relevance of our method for interdisciplinary data-driven analyses of networked systems.

No-exclaves percolation

Network robustness has been a pivotal issue in the study of system failure in network science since its inception. To shed light on this subject, we introduce and study a new percolation process based on a new cluster called an 'exclave' cluster. The entities comprising exclave clusters in a network are the sets of connected unfailed nodes that are completely surrounded by the failed (i.e., nonfunctional) nodes. The exclave clusters are thus detached from other unfailed parts of the network, thereby becoming effectively nonfunctional. This process defines a new class of clusters of nonfunctional nodes. We call it the no-exclave percolation cluster (NExP cluster), formed by the connected union of failed clusters and the exclave clusters they enclose. Here we showcase the effect of NExP cluster, suggesting a wide and disruptive collapse in two empirical infrastructure networks. We also study on two-dimensional Euclidean lattice to analyze the phase transition behavior using finite-size scaling. The NExP model considering the collective failure clusters uncovers new aspects of network collapse as a percolation process, such as quantitative change of transition point and qualitative change of transition type. Our study discloses hidden indirect damage added to the damage directly from attacks, and thus suggests a new useful way for finding nonfunctioning areas in complex systems under external perturbations as well as internal partial closures.

Power-grid stability predictions using transferable machine learning

Complex network analyses have provided clues to improve power-grid stability with the help of numerical models. The high computational cost of numerical simulations, however, has inhibited the approach, especially when it deals with the dynamic properties of power grids such as frequency synchronization. In this study, we investigate machine learning techniques to estimate the stability of power-grid synchronization. We test three different machine learning algorithms-random forest, support vector machine, and artificial neural network-training them with two different types of synthetic power grids consisting of homogeneous and heterogeneous input-power distribution, respectively. We find that the three machine learning models better predict the synchronization stability of power-grid nodes when they are trained with the heterogeneous input-power distribution rather than the homogeneous one. With the real-world power grids of Great Britain, Spain, France, and Germany, we also demonstrate that the machine learning algorithms trained on synthetic power grids are transferable to the stability prediction of the real-world power grids, which implies the prospective applicability of machine learning techniques on power-grid studies.

Consistency landscape of network communities

The concept of community detection has long been used as a key device for handling the mesoscale structures in networks. Suitably conducted community detection reveals various embedded informative substructures of network topology. However, regarding the practical usage of community detection, it has always been a tricky problem to assign a reasonable community resolution for networks of interest. Because of the absence of the unanimously accepted criterion, most of the previous studies utilized rather ad hoc heuristics to decide the community resolution. In this work, we harness the concept of consistency in community structures of networks to provide the overall community resolution landscape of networks, which we eventually take to quantify the reliability of detected communities for a given resolution parameter. More precisely, we exploit the ambiguity in the results of stochastic detection algorithms and suggest a method that denotes the relative validity of community structures in regard to their stability of global and local inconsistency measures using multiple detection processes. Applying our framework to synthetic and real networks, we confirm that it effectively displays insightful fundamental aspects of community structures.

Relational flexibility of network elements based on inconsistent community detection

Community identification of network components enables us to understand the mesoscale clustering structure of networks. A number of algorithms have been developed to determine the most likely community structures in networks. Such a probabilistic or stochastic nature of this problem can naturally involve the ambiguity in resultant community structures. More specifically, stochastic algorithms can result in different community structures for each realization in principle. In this study, instead of trying to "solve" this community degeneracy problem, we turn the tables by taking the degeneracy as a chance to quantify how strong companionship each node has with other nodes. For that purpose, we define the concept of companionship inconsistency that indicates how inconsistently a node is identified as a member of a community regarding the other nodes. Analyzing model and real networks, we show that companionship inconsistency discloses unique characteristics of nodes, thus we suggest it as a new type of node centrality. In social networks, for example, companionship inconsistency can classify outsider nodes without firm community membership and promiscuous nodes with multiple connections to several communities. In infrastructure networks such as power grids, it can diagnose how the connection structure is evenly balanced in terms of power transmission. Companionship inconsistency, therefore, abstracts individual nodes' intrinsic property on its relationship to a higher-order organization of the network.