The relationship between patient physiology and cancer-specific survival following curative resection of colorectal cancer

A comparison of POSSUM and GPS models in the prediction of post-operative outcome in patients undergoing oesophago-gastric cancer resection

BACKGROUND

There is some evidence that a patient's pre-operative condition influences short-term and long-term post-operative outcomes. The aim of the present study is to compare the physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS) models in the prediction of post-operative outcome, both short term and long term, in patients undergoing resection of oesophago-gastric cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients who underwent curative resection for oesophago-gastric cancer from January 2005 to May 2009 and who had data to score the POSSUM, P-POSSUM, O-POSSUM and mGPS models were included in the study. Observed morbidity and mortality rates were compared with predicted outcome in different risk groups. Both short-term outcome and long-term survival were recorded.

RESULTS

Observed morbidity was 49%, whereas POSSUM predicted post-operative morbidity in 60%, giving an overall standardised morbidity ratio of 0.82. Only male sex [hazard ratio (HR) 3.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.38-9.46, P = 0.009] and POSSUM physiology score (HR 2.13, 95% CI 1.11-4.08, P = 0.023) were independently associated with post-operative morbidity. The post-operative mortality rates predicted by POSSUM, P-POSSUM and O-POSSUM were 16.5, 5.8 and 9.9%, respectively, giving a standardised mortality ratio of 0.25, 0.71 and 0.42. Only mGPS (HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.09-3.54, P = 0.025) and tumour-node-metastasis (TNM) stage (HR 2.21, 95% CI 1.44-3.38, P < 0.001) were independently associated with cancer-specific survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The POSSUM physiology score was useful in predicting post-operative morbidity, and the mGPS was useful in predicting cancer-specific survival, in patients undergoing surgery for oesophago-gastric cancer.

POSSUM and its related models as predictors of postoperative mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing surgery for gastro-oesophageal cancer: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Gastro-oesophageal surgery is associated with appreciable postoperative morbidity and mortality. POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity) and its related models P-POSSUM and O-POSSUM have been developed to predict such events in general surgery. The aim was to undertake the first systematic review of the use of these models in gastro-oesophageal surgery patients.

METHODS

An online database search was carried out from 1991 to December 2008.

RESULTS

Twenty-two published studies in gastro-oesophageal cancer surgery were identified. Twelve studies were found not to address the above aim, leaving ten relevant publications for analysis. Pooled data from these studies showed the weighted observed-to-expected ratio (O/E) for postoperative mortality using POSSUM (n = 1189), P-POSSUM (n = 2314), and O-POSSUM (n = 1755) was 0.37, 0.83, and 0.51, respectively. The weighted O/E for morbidity using POSSUM (n = 1038) was 0.86.

CONCLUSION

POSSUM and O-POSSUM most significantly overestimated postoperative mortality in gastro-oesophageal cancer patients. In contrast, P-POSSUM had the least overestimation and may be the most useful predictor of likely postoperative mortality in these patients.

The relationship between patient physiology, the systemic inflammatory response and survival in patients undergoing curative resection of colorectal cancer

Background:

It is increasingly recognised that host-related factors may be important in determining cancer outcome. The aim was to examine the relationship between patient physiology, the systemic inflammatory response and survival after colorectal cancer resection.

Methods:

Patients undergoing potentially curative resection of colorectal cancer were identified from a prospectively maintained database. Patient physiology was assessed using the physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) criteria. The systemic inflammatory response was assessed using the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS). Multivariate 5-year survival analysis was carried out with calculation of hazard ratios (HR).

Results:

A total of 320 patients were included. During follow-up (median 74 months), there were 136 deaths: 83 colorectal cancer related and 53 non-cancer related. Independent predictors of cancer-specific survival were age (HR: 1.46, P<0.01), Dukes stage (HR: 2.39, P<0.001), mGPS (HR: 1.78, P<0.001) and POSSUM physiology score (HR: 1.38, P=0.02). Predictors of overall survival were age (HR: 1.64, P<0.001), smoking (HR: 1.52, P=0.02), Dukes stage (HR: 1.64, P<0.001), mGPS (HR: 1.60, P<0.001) and POSSUM physiology score (HR: 1.27, P=0.03). A relationship between mGPS and POSSUM physiology score was also established (P<0.006).

Conclusion:

The POSSUM physiology score and the systemic inflammatory response are strongly associated and both are independent predictors of cancer specific and overall survival in patients undergoing potentially curative resection of colorectal cancer.