Current strategies for monitoring men with localised prostate cancer lack a strong evidence base: observational longitudinal study

Prostate-specific antigen patterns in US and European populations: comparison of six diverse cohorts

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether there are differences in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels at diagnosis or changes in PSA levels between US and European populations of men with and without prostate cancer (PCa).

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

We analysed repeated measures of PSA from six clinically and geographically diverse cohorts of men: two cohorts with PSA-detected PCa, two cohorts with clinically detected PCa and two cohorts without PCa. Using multilevel models, average PSA at diagnosis and PSA change over time were compared among study populations.

RESULTS

The annual percentage PSA change of 4-5% was similar between men without cancer and men with PSA-detected cancer. PSA at diagnosis was 1.7 ng/mL lower in a US cohort of men with PSA-detected PCa (95% confidence interval 1.3-2.0 ng/mL), compared with a UK cohort of men with PSA-detected PCa, but there was no evidence of a different rate of PSA change between these populations.

CONCLUSION

We found that PSA changes over time are similar in UK and US men diagnosed through PSA testing and even in men without PCa. Further development of PSA models to monitor men on active surveillance should be undertaken in order to take advantage of these similarities. We found no evidence that guidelines for using PSA to monitor men cannot be passed between US and European studies.

Current practice and access to prostate MR imaging in France

PURPOSE

To obtain an overview of the degree of discrepancy between current clinical practice of prostate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in France and recommendations.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A brief survey was sent to 1229 members of the French society of urology in order to identify their indications of prostate MRI and its impact on patient management. The urologists were asked to answer several questions regarding age, practice modality, prostate MRI examinations (technique, indication before first biopsy, second biopsy, cancer staging, active surveillance, recurrence, focal therapy) and quality of reports.

RESULTS

A total of 445 responses were received (participation rate of 36%). The mean delay for obtaining an appointment for prostate MRI ranged between 15-30 days in 54%. Fifty-four percent of MRI reports contained a PIRADS score and 23% a Likert score. The indications of multiparametric-MRI were tumor detection/location prior to repeat biopsy (90%), cancer staging (85%), management of patients under active surveillance (85%), selection of candidates to focal therapy (63%), tumor detection/location in biopsy naïve patients (53%), detection of local recurrence after radical (51%). Only 119 urologists (28.6%) had access to image fusion (MRI and transrectal ultrasound) and 351 (85.4%) used cognitive fusion. Mostly, targeted biopsies are done by urologists alone (nearly 80%), a very few are done by radiologists (8%) or by the two of them in collaboration (12%).

CONCLUSION

The majority of urologists consider that prostate MRI is essential for the management of patients with prostate cancer. Practices are ahead of recommendations particularly before the first biopsy and in active surveillance.

Development, validation and evaluation of an instrument for active monitoring of men with clinically localised prostate cancer: systematic review, cohort studies and qualitative study

Background

Active surveillance [(AS), sometimes called active monitoring (AM)],is a National Institute for Health and Care Excellence-recommended management option for men with clinically localised prostate cancer (PCa). It aims to target radical treatment only to those who would benefit most. Little consensus exists nationally or internationally about safe and effective protocols for AM/AS or triggers that indicate if or when men should move to radical treatment.

Objective

The aims of this project were to review how prostate-specific antigen (PSA) has been used in AM/AS programmes; to develop and test the validity of a new model for predicting future PSA levels; to develop an instrument, based on PSA, that would be acceptable and effective for men and clinicians to use in clinical practice; and to design a robust study to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the instrument.

Methods

A systematic review was conducted to investigate how PSA is currently used to monitor men in worldwide AM/AS studies. A model for PSA change with age was developed using Prostate testing for cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) data and validated using data from two PSA-era cohorts and two pre-PSA-era cohorts. The model was used to derive 95% PSA reference ranges (PSARRs) across ages. These reference ranges were used to predict the onset of metastases or death from PCa in one of the pre-PSA-era cohorts. PSARRs were incorporated into an active monitoring system (AMS) and demonstrated to 18 clinicians and 20 men with PCa from four NHS trusts. Qualitative interviews investigated patients’ and clinicians’ views about current AM/AS protocols and the acceptability of the AMS within current practice.

Results

The systematic review found that the most commonly used triggers for clinical review of PCa were PSA doubling time (PSADT) < 3 years or PSA velocity (PSAv) > 1 ng/ml/year. The model for PSA change (developed using ProtecT study data) predicted PSA values in AM/AS cohorts within 2 ng/ml of observed PSA in up to 79% of men. Comparing the three PSA markers, there was no clear optimal approach to alerting men to worsening cancer. The PSARR and PSADT markers improved the modelc-statistic for predicting death from PCa by 0.11 (21%) and 0.13 (25%), respectively, compared with using diagnostic information alone [PSA, age, tumour stage (T-stage)]. Interviews revealed variation in clinical practice regarding eligibility and follow-up protocols. Patients and clinicians perceive current AM/AS practice to be framed by uncertainty, ranging from uncertainty about selection of eligible AM/AS candidates to uncertainty about optimum follow-up protocols and thresholds for clinical review/radical treatment. Patients and clinicians generally responded positively to the AMS. The impact of the AMS on clinicians’ decision-making was limited by a lack of data linking AMS values to long-term outcomes and by current clinical practice, which viewed PSA measures as one of several tools guiding clinical decisions in AM/AS. Patients reported that they would look to clinicians, rather than to a tool, to direct decision-making.

Limitations

The quantitative findings were severely hampered by a lack of clinical outcomes or events (such as metastases). The qualitative findings were limited through reliance on participants’ reports of practices and recollections of events rather than observations of actual interactions.

Conclusions

Patients and clinicians found that the instrument provided additional, potentially helpful, information but were uncertain about the current usefulness of the risk model we developed for routine management. Comparison of the model with other monitoring strategies will require clinical outcomes from ongoing AM/AS studies.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Factors Determining Change to Radical Treatment in Active Surveillance for Localized Prostate Cancer

CONTEXT

Many men with clinically localized prostate cancer are being monitored as part of active surveillance (AS) programs, but little is known about reasons for receiving radical treatment.

OBJECTIVES

A systematic review of the evidence about AS was undertaken, with a meta-analysis to identify predictors of radical treatment.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

A comprehensive search of the Embase, MEDLINE and Web of Knowledge databases to March 2014 was performed. Studies reporting on men with localized prostate cancer followed by AS or monitoring were included. AS was defined where objective eligibility criteria, management strategies, and triggers for clinical review or radical treatment were reported.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

The 26 AS cohorts included 7627 men, with a median follow-up of 3.5 yr (range of medians 1.5-7.5 yr). The cohorts had a wide range of inclusion criteria, monitoring protocols, and triggers for radical treatment. There were eight prostate cancer deaths and five cases of metastases in 24,981 person-years of follow-up. Each year, 8.8% of men (95% confidence interval 6.7-11.0%) received radical treatment, most commonly because of biopsy findings, prostate-specific antigen triggers, or patient choice driven by anxiety. Studies in which most men changed treatment were those including only low-risk Gleason score 6 disease and scheduled rebiopsies.

CONCLUSIONS

The wide variety of AS protocols and lack of robust evidence make firm conclusions difficult. Currently, patients and clinicians have to make judgments about the balance of risks and benefits in AS protocols. The publication of robust evidence from randomized trials and longer-term follow-up of cohorts is urgently required.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We reviewed 26 studies of men on active surveillance for prostate cancer. There was evidence that studies including men with the lowest risk disease and scheduled rebiopsy had higher rates of radical treatment.

First round of targeted biopsies using magnetic resonance imaging/ultrasonography fusion compared with conventional transrectal ultrasonography-guided biopsies for the diagnosis of localised prostate cancer

OBJECTIVES

To assess the accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)/transrectal ultrasonography (TRUS) fusion to guide first-round biopsies in the diagnosis of localised prostate cancer (PCa) in men with a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≤10 ng/mL.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A prospective study was conducted on men who met the following criteria: first-round biopsy, multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) showing a lesion with a Likert score ≥2 and a PSA <10 ng/mL. All men underwent a extended 12-core protocol plus a protocol of two or three targeted cores on the mpMRI index lesion. The UroStation (Koelis, Grenoble, France) and a V10 ultrasound system with an end-fire three-dimensional TRUS transducer were used for the fusion imaging procedure. Significant PCa was defined as: at least one core with a Gleason score of 3 + 4 or 6 with a maximum cancer core length ≥4 mm.

RESULTS

A total of 152 men, whose median PSA level was 6 ng/mL, were included in the study. The proportion of positive cores was significantly higher with the targeted-core protocol than with the extended 12-core protocol (P < 0.001). The proportion of men with clinically significant PCa was higher with the targeted-core protocol than with the extended 12-core protocol (P = 0.03). The proportion of patients having at least one positive biopsy (targeted-core protocol) was significantly different among the Likert score categories (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

For the first round of biopsies, MRI/TRUS-fusion targeted biopsies detected more men with clinically significant PCa than did standard extended 12-core biopsy alone.

Longitudinal prostate-specific antigen reference ranges: Choosing the underlying model of age-related changes

Serial measurements of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) are used as a biomarker for men diagnosed with prostate cancer following an active monitoring programme. Distinguishing pathological changes from natural age-related changes is not straightforward. Here, we compare four approaches to modelling age-related change in PSA with the aim of developing reference ranges for repeated measures of PSA. A suitable model for PSA reference ranges must satisfy two criteria. First, it must offer an accurate description of the trend of PSA on average and in individuals. Second, it must be able to make accurate predictions about new PSA observations for an individual and about the entire PSA trajectory for a new individual.

Folate and B12 in prostate cancer

Mechanisms postulated to link folate and B12 metabolism with cancer, including genome-wide hypomethylation, gene-specific promoter hypermethylation, and DNA uracil misincorporation, have been observed in prostate tumor cells. However, epidemiological studies of prostate cancer risk, based on dietary intakes and blood levels of folate and vitamin B12 and on folate-pathway gene variants, have generated contradictory findings. In a meta-analysis, circulating concentrations of B12 (seven studies, OR = 1.10; 95% CI 1.01, 1.19; P = 0.002) and (in cohort studies) folate (five studies, OR = 1.18; 95% CI 1.00, 1.40; P = 0.02) were positively associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer. Homocysteine was not associated with risk of prostate cancer (four studies, OR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.69, 1.19; P = 0.5). In a meta-analysis of folate-pathway polymorphisms, MTR 2756A > G (eight studies, OR = 1.06; 95% CI 1.00, 1.12; P = 0.06) and SHMT1 1420C > T (two studies, OR = 1.11; 95% CI 1.00, 1.22; P = 0.05) were positively associated with prostate cancer risk. There were no effects due to any other polymorphisms, including MTHFR 677C > T (12 studies, OR = 1.04; 95% CI 0.97, 1.12; P = 0.3). The positive association of circulating B12 with an increased risk of prostate cancer could be explained by reverse causality. However, given current controversies over mandatory B12 fortification, further research to eliminate a causal role of B12 in prostate cancer initiation and/or progression is required. Meta-analysis does not entirely rule out a positive association of circulating folate with increased prostate cancer risk. As with B12, even a weak positive association would be a significant public health issue, given the high prevalence of prostate cancer and concerns about the potential harms versus benefits of mandatory folic acid fortification.

Serum insulin-like growth factors and mortality in localised and advanced clinically detected prostate cancer

CONTEXT

Many studies have reported associations of insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and IGF-binding proteins (IGFBPs) with prostate cancer development, but none have investigated their association with fatal progression of prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated associations of circulating IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3 with all-cause and prostate cancer mortality in men with clinically identified prostate cancer, stratified by whether localised (stage T1 or T2) or advanced (T3, T4, N1 or M1) at diagnosis.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

UK hospital-based cohort study of 396 men with prostate cancer, diagnosed between 1990 and 2008, with mean follow-up of 3.7 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause and prostate cancer-specific mortality.

RESULTS

In men with advanced cancer, there was some evidence that IGF-I was positively associated (HR 1.20; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.49; p = 0.11) and IGFBP-3 was inversely associated (HR 0.84; 95% CI: 0.70, 1.01; p = 0.07) with all-cause mortality after controlling for age, treatment status, smoking, prostate-specific antigen and Gleason grade at diagnosis. There was some evidence that IGF-I was positively associated with prostate cancer mortality in advanced cases (HR 1.23; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.62; p = 0.13). In advanced cancers, associations of IGF-I with all-cause (HR 1.68; 95% CI: 1.28, 2.23; p < 0.001) and prostate cancer-specific (HR 1.59; 95% CI: 1.11, 2.28; p = 0.01) mortality strengthened (and were conventionally statistically significant) after further controlling for IGFBP-3.

CONCLUSIONS

Measures of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 may have potential as prognostic markers in predicting risk of death in men with advanced prostate cancer. Large, prospective studies with repeat IGFs and IGFBPs are now required.

Testing the evolution process of prostate-specific antigen in early stage prostate cancer: what is the proper underlying model?

This paper empirically tests a model of stochastic evolutions of prostate-specific antigen (PSA), a trigger for intervention in an early stage prostate cancer surveillance program. It conducts hypothesis testing of the Geometric Browning Motion model based on its attributes of independent increments and linearity of the variance in the increment length versus a wide range of stochastic and deterministic alternatives. These alternatives include the currently accepted deterministic growth model. The paper reports strong empirical evidence in favour of the Geometric Browning Motion model. A model that best describes PSA evolution is a prerequisite to the establishment of decision-making criteria for abandoning active surveillance (i.e. a strategy that involves close monitoring) in early stage prostate cancer. Thus, establishing empirically the type of PSA process is a first step toward the identification of more accurate triggers for abandoning active surveillance and starting treatment while the chances of curing the disease are still high.

Latest results from the UK trials evaluating prostate cancer screening and treatment: the CAP and ProtecT studies

The European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) demonstrated a significant reduction in prostate cancer-specific mortality. The ongoing Comparison Arm for ProtecT (CAP) cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) evaluates prostate cancer screening effectiveness by comparing primary care centres allocated to a round of prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing (intervention) or standard clinical care. Over 550 centres (around 450,000 men) were randomised in eight United Kingdom areas (2002-2008). Intervention group participants were also eligible for the ProtecT (Prostate testing for cancer and Treatment) RCT evaluating active monitoring, radiotherapy and radical prostatectomy treatments for localised prostate cancer. In ProtecT, over 1500 of around 3000 men with prostate cancer were randomised from over 10,000 with an elevated PSA in around 111,000 attendees at clinics. Investigation of the psychological impact of screening in a sub-sample showed that 10% of men still experienced high distress up to 3 months following prostate biopsies (22/227), although most were relatively unaffected. The risk of prostate cancer with a raised PSA was lower if urinary symptoms were present (frequent nocturia odds ratio (OR) 0.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.22-0.83) or if a repeat PSA decreased by > or = 20% prior to biopsy (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.35-0.52). Men aged 45-49 years attended PSA clinics less frequently (442/1299, 34%) in a nested cohort with a cancer detection rate of 2.3% (10/442). The CAP and ProtecT trials (ISRCTN92187251 and ISRCTN20141217) will help resolve the prostate cancer screening debate, define the optimum treatment for localised disease and generate evidence to improve men's health.

PSA-detected prostate cancer and the potential for dedifferentiation--estimating the proportion capable of progression

The aims were to determine whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-detected prostate cancers progress to higher Gleason score during the preclinical screen-detectable phase, and, if so, to estimate the proportion of tumours with progressive potential. We developed two multi-state Markov chain models to represent the natural history of two tumour populations, one with (Model I) and the other without (Model II) the potential for progression. For each, we derived the transition rates between the states and used these estimates to calculate the expected prevalence of preclinical low and intermediate-to-high Gleason score prostate cancers, using data from the Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) study on 2,310 prostate cancers detected by PSA testing in 71,511 men 50-69 years. We compared the expected prevalence for each tumour population to that of the observed based on ProtecT and the European Randomised Study on Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC)-Rotterdam Centre's first round screening data, the latter allowing independent assessment of the two models. The overall expected proportion of low Gleason score tumours was 0.56 under Model I and 0.81 under Model II, whereas the observed proportion based on either ProtecT or ERSPC-Rotterdam was 0.69. Using the observed prevalence from ERSPC-Rotterdam, we estimated that 22, 33 and 66% of the tumours in men aged 55-59, 60-64 and 65-69 years, respectively, had the potential for progression in the preclinical phase. PSA-detected prostate cancers are a mixture of progressive and non-progressive tumours with respect to Gleason score. The former may potentially benefit from screening. Identifying cancers with the potential for progression is important to target screening.