Radionuclide Gas Transport through Nuclear Explosion-Generated Fracture Networks

Permeability scaling relationships of volcanic tuff from core to field scale measurements

A recent chemical explosive test in P-Tunnel at the Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA, was conducted to better understand how signals propagate from explosions in the subsurface. A primary signal of interest is the migration of gases that can be used to differentiate chemical from nuclear explosions. Gas migration is highly dependent on the rock permeability which is notoriously difficult to determine experimentally in the field due to a potentially large dependence on the scale over which measurements are made. Here, we present pre-explosion permeability estimates to characterize the geologic units surrounding the recent test. Permeability measurements were made at three scales of increasing size: core samples (≈2 cm), borehole packer system tests (≈1 m), and a pre-shot cavity pressurization test (> 10 m) across ten tuff units. Permeability estimates based on core measurements showed little difference from borehole packer tests. However, permeability in most rock units calibrated from cavity pressurization tests resulted in higher permeability estimates by up to two orders of magnitude. Here, we demonstrate that the scale of the measurement significantly impacts the characterization efforts of hydraulic properties in volcanic tuff, and that local-scale measurements (< 10 m scale) do not incorporate enough heterogeneity to accurately predict field-scale flow and mass transport.

Gas diffusion through variably-water-saturated zeolitic tuff: Implications for transport following a subsurface nuclear event

Noble gas transport through geologic media has important applications in the characterization of underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). Without accurate transport models, it is nearly impossible to distinguish between xenon signatures originating from civilian nuclear facilities and UNEs. Understanding xenon transport time through the earth is a key parameter for interpreting measured xenon isotopic ratios. One of the most challenging aspects of modeling gas transport time is accounting for the effect of variable water saturation of geological media. In this study, we utilize bench-scale laboratory experiments to characterize the diffusion of krypton, xenon, and sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) through intact zeolitic tuff under different saturations. We demonstrate that the water in rock cores with low partial saturation dramatically affects xenon transport time compared to that of krypton and SF₆ by blocking sites in zeolitic tuff that preferentially adsorb xenon. This leads to breakthrough trends that are strongly influenced by the degree of the rock saturation. Xenon is especially susceptible to this phenomenon, a finding that is crucial to incorporate in subsurface gas transport models used for nuclear event identification. We also find that the breakthrough of SF₆ diverges significantly from that of noble gases within our system. When developing field scale models, it is important to understand how the behavior of xenon deviates from chemical tracers used in the field, such as SF₆ (Carrigan et al., 1996). These new insights demonstrate the critical need to consider the interplay between rock saturation and fission product sorption during transport modeling, and the importance of evaluating specific interactions between geomedia and gases of interest, which may differ from geomedia interactions with chemical tracers.

Evaluation of subsurface transport processes of delayed gas signatures applicable to underground nuclear explosions

Radioactive gas signatures from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) result from gas-migration processes occurring in the subsurface. The processes considered in this study either drive or retard upward migration of gases from the detonation cavity. The relative importance of these processes is evaluated by simulating subsurface transport in a dual-permeability medium for the multi-tracer Noble Gas Migration Experiment (NGME) originally intended to study some aspects of transport from a UNE. For this experiment, relevant driving processes include weak two-phase convection driven by the geothermal gradient, over pressuring of the detonation cavity, and barometric pumping while gas sorption, dissolution, radioactive decay, and usually diffusion represent retarding processes. From deterministic simulations we found that over-pressuring of the post-detonation chimney coupled with barometric pumping produced a synergistic effect amplifying the tracer-gas reaching the surface. Bounding simulations indicated that the sorption and dissolution of gases, tending to retard transport, were much smaller than anticipated by earlier laboratory studies. The NGME observations themselves show that differences in gas diffusivity have a larger effect on influencing upward transport than do the combined effects of tracer-gas sorption and dissolution, which is consistent with a Sobol’ sensitivity analysis. Both deterministic simulations and those considering parametric uncertainties of transport-related properties predict that the excess in concentration of SF\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$_6$$\end{document}6 compared to \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$^{127}$$\end{document}127Xe as might be captured in small volumetric samples should be much smaller than the order-of-magnitude contrast found in the large-volume gas samples taken at the site. While extraction of large-volume subsurface gas samples is shown to be capable of distorting in situ gas compositions, the highly variable injection rate of SF\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$_6$$\end{document}6 into the detonation cavity relative to that of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$^{127}$$\end{document}127Xe at the start of the field experiment is the most likely explanation for the large difference in observed concentrations.

Measurements of Argon-39 from locations near historic underground nuclear explosions

Measurement of radioactive gas seepage from an underground nuclear explosion is one of the primary methods to confirm whether an event was nuclear in nature. Radioactive noble gas indicators that are commonly targeted by such measurements (e.g. ¹³³Xe, ³⁷Ar) have half-lives of 35 days or less. Argon-39, an activation product similar to ³⁷Ar, is produced by the interaction between neutrons and potassium in the surrounding geology and has a half-life of 269 years. Measurements taken at three sites near three historic underground nuclear test locations at the Nevada National Security Site have all shown highly elevated levels of ³⁹Ar in soil gas decades after the test events. Elevated levels of ³⁹Ar were also detected in atmospheric air collected near two of these sites, and outside the entrance of the one tunnel site. These measurements demonstrate that ³⁹Ar has the potential to be a long-term signature of an underground nuclear event which can be reliably detected at the surface or in the shallow subsurface. This radionuclide detection of an underground nuclear event decades after the event takes place is in contrast to the commonly held assumption that detecting underground nuclear events via radionuclides at the surface needs to be done in a matter of months. Depending upon what further studies show about the robustness of this signature in a variety of geological settings, it may in fact be easy to detect underground nuclear events at the surface for a very long time post-detonation.

Simulating contaminant transport in unsaturated and saturated groundwater zones

The demand for clean and adequate water is rising rapidly with increasing population. This growing demand for water necessitates the measurement of the quantity and quality of water. Simulation modeling has become increasingly popular in the last two decades largely because of their predictive ability. This paper reviews the approaches for simulation modeling in groundwater resources management, focusing on models that have been used to simulate contaminant transport through the aquifer system. Recent research papers that have integrated the models for unsaturated and saturated zones have also been studied and described. Integrated models require assessment of the complex interactions between the groundwater zones and the movement of water and solute through them. Due to this, integrated models provide a more accurate modeling approach than models that have been independently developed for saturated and unsaturated zones. Application of such models is encouraged at the regional level to arrive at the best groundwater management decisions. PRACTITIONER POINTS: In the past few decades, modeling of contaminant transport in groundwater systems has seen tremendous applications. A number of models exist that independently simulate flow and solute transport in unsaturated and saturated zones. Recently, focus has been given on developing advanced coupled modeling approaches that require less inputs and run times.

A Closed-form Solution for Source-term Emission of Xenon Isotopes from Underground Nuclear Explosions

Isotopic ratios of radioactive xenons sampled in the subsurface and atmosphere can be used to detect underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and civilian nuclear reactors. Disparities in the half-lives of the radioactive decay chains are principally responsible for time-dependent concentrations of xenon isotopes. Contrasting timescales, combined with modern detection capabilities, make the xenon isotopic family a desirable surrogate for UNE detection. However, without including the physical details of post-detonation cavity changes that affect radioxenon evolution and subsurface transport, a UNE is treated as an idealized system that is both closed and well mixed for estimating xenon isotopic ratios and their correlations so that the spatially dependent behavior of xenon production, cavity leakage, and transport are overlooked. In this paper, we developed a multi-compartment model with radioactive decay and interactions between compartments. The model does not require the detailed domain geometry and parameterization that is normally needed by high-fidelity computer simulations, but can represent nuclide evolution within a compartment and migration among compartments under certain conditions. The closed-form solution to all nuclides in the series 131–136 is derived using analytical singular-value decomposition. The solution is further used to express xenon ratios as functions of time and compartment position.

Comparison of near-background concentrations of Argon-37 and Xenon-133 in the atmosphere

Radioisotopes of the noble gases xenon and argon can be important indicators of underground nuclear explosions. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) includes monitoring capabilities to identify potential nuclear explosions conducted in violation of the CTBT. This monitoring currently focuses on measurement of the xenon isotopes ^131mXe, ¹³³Xe, ^133mXe, and ¹³⁵Xe. However, it is predicted that within 100 days of an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) ³⁷Ar would be released to the atmosphere at higher concentrations than xenon and with a higher signal to background ratio, depending on the radioxenon background levels. Therefore, inclusion of ³⁷Ar measurement capabilities at atmospheric International Monitoring System (IMS) stations may represent an improvement in the capability to detect a nuclear explosion. At an IMS station location, an understanding of the expected range of background ³⁷Ar activity concentrations is critical to determining what levels would constitute an elevated concentration. This work describes our analysis of atmospheric samples for ³⁷Ar to evaluate the range of background concentrations. Samples were collected at multiple locations withing the United States, with approximately half coming from a sampler co-located with an IMS xenon monitoring station (RN75). The range of ³⁷Ar concentrations measured in atmospheric air samples was relatively narrow; for samples considered detectable, the minimum and maximum measured concentrations were 0.56 and 2.3 mBq/m³, respectively. Comparison of ³⁷Ar and ¹³³Xe concentrations measured at the IMS station indicated some correlation between the measured concentrations. The results presented here demonstrate the capability to detect background concentrations of ³⁷Ar in atmospheric air and provide a basis for potential implementation of ³⁷Ar monitoring at IMS stations.

Measurement of radioxenon and radioargon in soil gas collected in the region of Kvarntorp, Sweden

Over 40 soil gas samples were collected both in post-industrial areas as well as in undisturbed areas in the region of Kvarntorp, Sweden. Radioxenon (¹³³Xe) was detected in 15 samples and radioargon was detected in 7 from 10 samples analysed. The concentration of radioxenon and radioargon in soil gas ranged up to 109 mBq/m³ and 19 mBq/m³, respectively. During sample collection other soil gases such as radon, CO₂ and O₂ were also measured and soil samples were taken along with dose rate measurements. The field experiment presented here shows that it is possible to detect naturally occurring radioxenon and radioargon in soil gas simultaneously.

Beyond Barnwell: Applying lessons learned from the Barnwell site to other historic underground nuclear tests at Pahute Mesa to understand radioactive gas-seepage observations

An underground nuclear explosion (UNE) generates radioactive gases that can be transported through fractures to the ground surface over timescales of hours to months. If detected, the presence of particular short-lived radionuclides in the gas can provide strong evidence that a recent UNE has occurred. By drawing comparisons between sixteen similar historical U.S. UNEs where radioactive gas was or was not detected, we identified factors that control the occurrence and timing of breakthrough at the ground surface. The factors that we evaluated include the post-test atmospheric conditions, local geology, and surface geology at the UNE sites. The UNEs, all located on Pahute Mesa on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), had the same announced yield range (20-150 kt), similar burial depths in the unsaturated zone, and were designed and performed by the same organization during the mid-to-late 1980s. Results of the analysis indicate that breakthrough at the ground surface is largely controlled by a combination of the post-UNE barometric pressure changes in the months following the UNE, and the volume of air-filled pore space above the UNE. Conceptually simplified numerical models of each of the 16 historical UNEs that include these factors successfully predict the occurrence (5 of the UNEs) or lack of occurrence (remaining 11 UNEs) of post-UNE gas seepage to the ground surface. However, the data analysis and modeling indicates that estimates of the meteorological conditions and of the post-UNE, site-specific subsurface environment including air-filled porosity, in combination, may be necessary to successfully predict late-time detectable gas breakthrough for a suspected UNE site.

Gas transport across the low-permeability containment zone of an underground nuclear explosion

Understanding the nature of gas transport from an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) is required for evaluating the ability to detect and interpret either on-site or atmospheric signatures of noble gas radionuclides resulting from the event. We performed a pressure and chemical tracer monitoring experiment at the site of an underground nuclear test that occurred in a tunnel in Nevada to evaluate the possible modes of gas transport to the surface. The site represents a very well-contained, low gas-permeability end member for past UNEs at the Nevada National Security Site. However, there is very strong evidence that gases detected at the surface during a period of low atmospheric pressure resulted from fractures of extremely small aperture that are essentially invisible. Our analyses also suggest that gases would have easily migrated to the top of the high-permeability collapse zone following the detonation minimizing the final distance required for migration along these narrow fractures to the surface. This indicates that on-site detection of gases emanating from such low-permeability sites is feasible while standoff detection of atmospheric plumes may also be possible at local distances for sufficiently high fracture densities. Finally, our results show that gas leakage into the atmosphere also occurred directly from the tunnel portal and should be monitored in future tunnel gas sampling experiments for the purpose of better understanding relative contributions to detection of radioxenon releases via both fracture network and tunnel transport.

Surrogate Models for Estimating Failure in Brittle and Quasi-Brittle Materials

In brittle fracture applications, failure paths, regions where the failure occurs and damage statistics, are some of the key quantities of interest (QoI). High-fidelity models for brittle failure that accurately predict these QoI exist but are highly computationally intensive, making them infeasible to incorporate in upscaling and uncertainty quantification frameworks. The goal of this paper is to provide a fast heuristic to reasonably estimate quantities such as failure path and damage in the process of brittle failure. Towards this goal, we first present a method to predict failure paths under tensile loading conditions and low-strain rates. The method uses a k-nearest neighbors algorithm built on fracture process zone theory, and identifies the set of all possible pre-existing cracks that are likely to join early to form a large crack. The method then identifies zone of failure and failure paths using weighted graphs algorithms. We compare these failure paths to those computed with a high-fidelity fracture mechanics model called the Hybrid Optimization Software Simulation Suite (HOSS). A probabilistic evolution model for average damage in a system is also developed that is trained using 150 HOSS simulations and tested on 40 simulations. A non-parametric approach based on confidence intervals is used to determine the damage evolution over time along the dominant failure path. For upscaling, damage is the key QoI needed as an input by the continuum models. This needs to be informed accurately by the surrogate models for calculating effective moduli at continuum-scale. We show that for the proposed average damage evolution model, the prediction accuracy on the test data is more than 90%. In terms of the computational time, the proposed models are ≈ O ( 10 6 ) times faster compared to high-fidelity fracture simulations by HOSS. These aspects make the proposed surrogate model attractive for upscaling damage from micro-scale models to continuum models. We would like to emphasize that the surrogate models are not a replacement of physical understanding of fracture propagation. The proposed method in this paper is limited to tensile loading conditions at low-strain rates. This loading condition corresponds to a dominant fracture perpendicular to tensile direction. The proposed method is not applicable for in-plane shear, out-of-plane shear, and higher strain rate loading conditions.

Identification of dominant gas transport frequencies during barometric pumping of fractured rock

We demonstrate that although barometric pressures are complicated signals comprised of numerous frequencies, it is a subset of these frequencies that drive the overwhelming majority of gas transport in fractured rock. Using an inverse numerical analysis, we demonstrate that a single barometric component with seasonally modulated amplitude approximates gas transport due to a measured barometric signal. If past barometric tendencies are expected to continue at a location, the identification of this frequency can facilitate accurate long term predictions of barometrically induced gas transport negating the need to consider stochastic realizations of future barometric variations. Additionally, we perform an analytical analysis that indicates that there is a set of barometric frequencies, consistent with the inverse numerical analysis, with high production efficiency. Based on the corroborating inverse numerical and analytical analyses, we conclude that there is a set of dominant gas transport frequencies in barometric records.

Flow-through compression cell for small-angle and ultra-small-angle neutron scattering measurements

In situ measurements of geological materials under compression and with hydrostatic fluid pressure are important in understanding their behavior under field conditions, which in turn provides critical information for application-driven research. In particular, understanding the role of nano- to micro-scale porosity in the subsurface liquid and gas flow is critical for the high-fidelity characterization of the transport and more efficient extraction of the associated energy resources. In other applications, where parts are produced by the consolidation of powders by compression, the resulting porosity and crystallite orientation (texture) may affect its in-use characteristics. Small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) and ultra SANS are ideal probes for characterization of these porous structures over the nano to micro length scales. Here we show the design, realization, and performance of a novel neutron scattering sample environment, a specially designed compression cell, which provides compressive stress and hydrostatic pressures with effective stress up to 60 MPa, using the neutron beam to probe the effects of stress vectors parallel to the neutron beam. We demonstrate that the neutron optics is suitable for the experimental objectives and that the system is highly stable to the stress and pressure conditions of the measurements.

Delayed signatures of underground nuclear explosions

Radionuclide signals from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) are strongly influenced by the surrounding hydrogeologic regime. One effect of containment is delay of detonation-produced radioxenon reaching the surface as well as lengthening of its period of detectability compared to uncontained explosions. Using a field-scale tracer experiment, we evaluate important transport properties of a former UNE site. We observe the character of signals at the surface due to the migration of gases from the post-detonation chimney under realistic transport conditions. Background radon signals are found to be highly responsive to cavity pressurization suggesting that large local radon anomalies may be an indicator of a clandestine UNE. Computer simulations, using transport properties obtained from the experiment, track radioxenon isotopes in the chimney and their migration to the surface. They show that the chimney surrounded by a fractured containment regime behaves as a leaky chemical reactor regarding its effect on isotopic evolution introducing a dependence on nuclear yield not previously considered. This evolutionary model for radioxenon isotopes is validated by atmospheric observations of radioxenon from a 2013 UNE in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). Our model produces results similar to isotopic observations with nuclear yields being comparable to seismic estimates.