Underestimated risks of recurrent long-range ash dispersal from northern Pacific Arc volcanoes

COVID-19: Pandemic in Ecuador: a health disparities perspective

BACKGROUND

The global COVID-19 pandemic initiated in Ecuador with the patient zero in February 2020 and since more than 40,000 persons have been tested positive to the virus, leaving some 3,500 deceased, while approximately about 10,500 persons above annual average numbers died within March to May. A strict lockdown was applied by mid-March, which resulted to a severe economic crisis in the country. Although during the lockdown.

OBJECTIVE

Our study postulates, that persons who are most likely to be infected during such secondary wave will be people who have already health issues to which we count besides the known ones, especially those who are already suffer by the distribution of volcanic ashes, as such pyroclastic material is known to affect lunges and thyroids. occurred a notable decrease in the number of new cases, the spread of the infection was already massive, untechnical, political and economic decisions will certainly lead to continuous wave of infections for months.

METHODS

A descriptive ecological study of information related to COVID-19 infection at a national level using official data from the Minister of Public Health and volcanic ash fall by geographical area in Ecuador.

RESULTS

The mortality rate per canton indicated that those with lower attack rates are the ones with highest mortality rate. For instance, Portovelo (21.3/100,000), Playas (18.4/100,000), Santa Rosa (15.8/100,000), Suscal (15.3/100,000) and Penipe (14.3/100,000) reported the highest mortality rate per 100,000 people. The main distribution of such volcanic material is within the central to northern area of the Highlands and Inter-Andean Valley of Ecuador, due to the analysis of some 7394 satellite images of the last 21 years.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that areas with high vulnerabilities are also most susceptible to develop COVID-19. Such areas with their respective populations will be affected above average and shall be protected in particular within the presently starting during possible second wave of infection.

Greenland Ice Core Record of Last Glacial Dust Sources and Atmospheric Circulation

Abrupt and large-scale climate changes have occurred repeatedly and within decades during the last glaciation. These events, where dramatic warming occurs over decades, are well represented in both Greenland ice core mineral dust and temperature records, suggesting a causal link. However, the feedbacks between atmospheric dust and climate change during these Dansgaard-Oeschger events are poorly known and the processes driving changes in atmospheric dust emission and transport remain elusive. Constraining dust provenance is key to resolving these gaps. Here, we present a multi-technique analysis of Greenland dust provenance using novel and established, source diagnostic isotopic tracers as well as results from a regional climate model including dust cycle simulations. We show that the existing dominant model for the provenance of Greenland dust as sourced from combined East Asian dust and Pacific volcanics is not supported. Rather, our clay mineralogical and Hf-Sr-Nd and D/H isotopic analyses from last glacial Greenland dust and an extensive range of Northern Hemisphere potential dust sources reveal three most likely scenarios (in order of probability): direct dust sourcing from the Taklimakan Desert in western China, direct sourcing from European glacial sources, or a mix of dust originating from Europe and North Africa. Furthermore, our regional climate modeling demonstrates the plausibility of European or mixed European/North African sources for the first time. We suggest that the origin of dust to Greenland is potentially more complex than previously recognized, demonstrating more uncertainty in our understanding dust climate feedbacks during abrupt events than previously understood.

Volcanic Ash as a Precursor for SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Susceptible Populations in Ecuador: A Satellite Imaging and Excess Mortality-Based Analysis

The global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has altered entire nations and their health systems. The greatest impact of the pandemic has been seen among vulnerable populations, such as those with comorbidities like heart diseases, kidney failure, obesity, or those with worse health determinants such as unemployment and poverty. In the current study, we are proposing previous exposure to fine-grained volcanic ashes as a risk factor for developing COVID-19. Based on several previous studies it has been known since the mid 1980s of the past century that volcanic ash is most likely an accelerating factor to suffer from different types of cancer, including lung or thyroid cancer. Our study postulates, that people who are most likely to be infected during a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) widespread wave will be those with comorbidities that are related to previous exposure to volcanic ashes. We have explored 8703 satellite images from the past 21 y of available data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) database and correlated them with the data from the national institute of health statistics in Ecuador. Additionally, we provide more realistic numbers of fatalities due to the virus based on excess mortality data of 2020-2021, when compared with previous years. This study would be a very first of its kind combining social and spatial distribution of COVID-19 infections and volcanic ash distribution. The results and implications of our study will also help countries to identify such aforementioned vulnerable parts of the society, if the given geodynamic and volcanic settings are similar.

The magnitude and impact of the 431 CE Tierra Blanca Joven eruption of Ilopango, El Salvador

The Tierra Blanca Joven (TBJ) eruption from Ilopango volcano deposited thick ash over much of El Salvador when it was inhabited by the Maya, and rendered all areas within at least 80 km of the volcano uninhabitable for years to decades after the eruption. Nonetheless, the more widespread environmental and climatic impacts of this large eruption are not well known because the eruption magnitude and date are not well constrained. In this multifaceted study we have resolved the date of the eruption to 431 ± 2 CE by identifying the ash layer in a well-dated, high-resolution Greenland ice-core record that is >7,000 km from Ilopango; and calculated that between 37 and 82 km³ of magma was dispersed from an eruption coignimbrite column that rose to ∼45 km by modeling the deposit thickness using state-of-the-art tephra dispersal methods. Sulfate records from an array of ice cores suggest stratospheric injection of 14 ± 2 Tg S associated with the TBJ eruption, exceeding those of the historic eruption of Pinatubo in 1991. Based on these estimates it is likely that the TBJ eruption produced a cooling of around 0.5 °C for a few years after the eruption. The modeled dispersal and higher sulfate concentrations recorded in Antarctic ice cores imply that the cooling would have been more pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere. The new date confirms the eruption occurred within the Early Classic phase when Maya expanded across Central America.

The Human Cost of Anthropogenic Global Warming: Semi-Quantitative Prediction and the 1,000-Tonne Rule

Greenhouse-gas emissions are indirectly causing future deaths by multiple mechanisms. For example, reduced food and water supplies will exacerbate hunger, disease, violence, and migration. How will anthropogenic global warming (AGW) affect global mortality due to poverty around and beyond 2100? Roughly, how much burned fossil carbon corresponds to one future death? What are the psychological, medical, political, and economic implications? Predicted death tolls are crucial for policy formulation, but uncertainty increases with temporal distance from the present and estimates may be biased. Order-of-magnitude estimates should refer to literature from diverse relevant disciplines. The carbon budget for 2°C AGW (roughly 10¹² tonnes carbon) will indirectly cause roughly 10⁹ future premature deaths (10% of projected maximum global population), spread over one to two centuries. This zeroth-order prediction is relative and in addition to existing preventable death rates. It lies between likely best- and worst-case scenarios of roughly 3 × 10⁸ and 3 × 10⁹, corresponding to plus/minus one standard deviation on a logarithmic scale in a Gaussian probability distribution. It implies that one future premature death is caused every time roughly 1,000 (300–3,000) tonnes of carbon are burned. Therefore, any fossil-fuel project that burns millions of tons of carbon is probably indirectly killing thousands of future people. The prediction may be considered valid, accounting for multiple indirect links between AGW and death rates in a top-down approach, but unreliable due to the uncertainty of climate change feedback and interactions between physical, biological, social, and political climate impacts (e.g., ecological cascade effects and co-extinction). Given universal agreement on the value of human lives, a death toll of this unprecedented magnitude must be avoided at all costs. As a clear political message, the “1,000-tonne rule” can be used to defend human rights, especially in developing countries, and to clarify that climate change is primarily a human rights issue.

First identification and characterization of Borrobol-type tephra in the Greenland ice cores: new deposits and improved age estimates

Contiguous sampling of ice spanning key intervals of the deglaciation from the Greenland ice cores of NGRIP, GRIP and NEEM has revealed three new silicic cryptotephra deposits that are geochemically similar to the well-known Borrobol Tephra (BT). The BT is complex and confounded by the younger closely timed and compositionally similar Penifiler Tephra (PT). Two of the deposits found in the ice are in Greenland Interstadial 1e (GI-1e) and an older deposit is found in Greenland Stadial 2.1 (GS-2.1). Until now, the BT was confined to GI-1-equivalent lacustrine sequences in the British Isles, Sweden and Germany, and our discovery in Greenland ice extends its distribution and geochemical composition. However, the two cryptotephras that fall within GI-1e ice cannot be separated on the basis of geochemistry and are dated to 14358 ± 177 a b2k and 14252 ± 173 a b2k, just 106 ± 3 years apart. The older deposit is consistent with BT age estimates derived from Scottish sites, while the younger deposit overlaps with both BT and PT age estimates. We suggest that either the BT in Northern European terrestrial sequences represents an amalgamation of tephra from both of the GI-1e events identified in the ice-cores or that it relates to just one of the ice-core events. A firm correlation cannot be established at present due to their strong geochemical similarities. The older tephra horizon, found within all three ice-cores and dated to 17326 ± 319 a b2k, can be correlated to a known layer within marine sediment cores from the North Iceland Shelf (ca. 17179-16754 cal a BP). Despite showing similarities to the BT, this deposit can be distinguished on the basis of lower CaO and TiO₂ and is a valuable new tie-point that could eventually be used in high-resolution marine records to compare the climate signals from the ocean and atmosphere.

Enhanced ice sheet melting driven by volcanic eruptions during the last deglaciation

Volcanic eruptions can impact the mass balance of ice sheets through changes in climate and the radiative properties of the ice. Yet, empirical evidence highlighting the sensitivity of ancient ice sheets to volcanism is scarce. Here we present an exceptionally well-dated annual glacial varve chronology recording the melting history of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet at the end of the last deglaciation (∼13,200-12,000 years ago). Our data indicate that abrupt ice melting events coincide with volcanogenic aerosol emissions recorded in Greenland ice cores. We suggest that enhanced ice sheet runoff is primarily associated with albedo effects due to deposition of ash sourced from high-latitude volcanic eruptions. Climate and snowpack mass-balance simulations show evidence for enhanced ice sheet runoff under volcanically forced conditions despite atmospheric cooling. The sensitivity of past ice sheets to volcanic ashfall highlights the need for an accurate coupling between atmosphere and ice sheet components in climate models.