A Comparison of Rule-based Analysis with Regression Methods in Understanding the Risk Factors for Study Withdrawal in a Pediatric Study

Medication adherence prediction through temporal modelling in cardiovascular disease management

Background

Chronic conditions place a considerable burden on modern healthcare systems. Within New Zealand and worldwide cardiovascular disease (CVD) affects a significant proportion of the population and it is the leading cause of death. Like other chronic diseases, the course of cardiovascular disease is usually prolonged and its management necessarily long-term. Despite being highly effective in reducing CVD risk, non-adherence to long-term medication continues to be a longstanding challenge in healthcare delivery. The study investigates the benefits of integrating patient history and assesses the contribution of explicitly temporal models to medication adherence prediction in the context of lipid-lowering therapy.

Methods

Data from a CVD risk assessment tool is linked to routinely collected national and regional data sets including pharmaceutical dispensing, hospitalisation, lab test results and deaths. The study extracts a sub-cohort from 564,180 patients who had primary CVD risk assessment for analysis. Based on community pharmaceutical dispensing record, proportion of days covered (PDC) $$\ge$$ ≥  80 is used as the threshold for adherence. Two years (8 quarters) of patient history before their CVD risk assessment is used as the observation window to predict patient adherence in the subsequent 5 years (20 quarters). The predictive performance of temporal deep learning models long short-term memory (LSTM) and simple recurrent neural networks (Simple RNN) are compared against non-temporal models multilayer perceptron (MLP), ridge classifier (RC) and logistic regression (LR). Further, the study investigates the effect of lengthening the observation window on the task of adherence prediction.

Results

Temporal models that use sequential data outperform non-temporal models, with LSTM producing the best predictive performance achieving a ROC AUC of 0.805. A performance gap is observed between models that can discover non-linear interactions between predictor variables and their linear counter parts, with neural network (NN) based models significantly outperforming linear models. Additionally, the predictive advantage of temporal models become more pronounced when the length of the observation window is increased.

Conclusion

The findings of the study provide evidence that using deep temporal models to integrate patient history in adherence prediction is advantageous. In particular, the RNN architecture LSTM significantly outperforms all other model comparators.

Machine learning methods to predict 30-day hospital readmission outcome among US adults with pneumonia: analysis of the national readmission database

Background

Hospital readmissions for pneumonia are a growing concern in the US, with significant consequences for costs and quality of care. This study developed the rule-based model and other machine learning (ML) models to predict 30-day readmission risk in patients with pneumonia and compared model performance.

Methods

This population-based study involved patients aged ≥ 18 years hospitalized with pneumonia from January 1, 2016, through November 30, 2016, using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-National Readmission Database (HCUP-NRD). Rule-based algorithms and other ML algorithms, specifically decision trees, random forest, extreme gradient descent boosting (XGBoost), and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), were used to model all-cause readmissions 30 days post-discharge from index pneumonia hospitalization. A total of 61 clinically relevant variables were included for ML model development. Models were trained on randomly partitioned 50% of the data and evaluated using the remaining dataset. Model hyperparameters were tuned using the ten-fold cross-validation on the resampled training dataset. The area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) and area under precision-recall curves (AUPRC) were calculated for the testing set to evaluate the model performance.

Results

Of the 372,293 patients with an index hospital hospitalization for pneumonia, 48,280 (12.97%) were readmitted within 30 days. Judged by AUROC in the testing data, rule-based model (0.6591) significantly outperformed decision tree (0.5783, p value < 0.001), random forest (0.6509, p value < 0.01) and LASSO (0.6087, p value < 0.001), but was less superior than XGBoost (0.6606, p value = 0.015). The AUPRC of the rule-based model in the testing data (0.2146) was higher than the decision tree (0.1560), random forest (0.2052), and LASSO (0.2042), but was similar to XGBoost (0.2147). The top risk-predictive rules captured by the rule-based algorithm were comorbidities, illness severity, disposition locations, payer type, age, and length of stay. These predictive risk factors were also identified by other ML models with high variable importance.

Conclusion

The performance of machine learning models for predicting readmission in pneumonia patients varied. The XGboost was better than the rule-based model based on the AUROC. However, important risk factors for predicting readmission remained consistent across ML models.

Predicting COVID-19 community infection relative risk with a Dynamic Bayesian Network

As COVID-19 continues to impact the United States and the world at large it is becoming increasingly necessary to develop methods which predict local scale spread of the disease. This is especially important as newer variants of the virus are likely to emerge and threaten community spread. We develop a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) to predict community-level relative risk of COVID-19 infection at the census tract scale in the U.S. state of Indiana. The model incorporates measures of social and environmental vulnerability-including environmental determinants of COVID-19 infection-into a spatial temporal prediction of infection relative risk 1-month into the future. The DBN significantly outperforms five other modeling techniques used for comparison and which are typically applied in spatial epidemiological applications. The logic behind the DBN also makes it very well-suited for spatial-temporal prediction and for "what-if" analysis. The research results also highlight the need for further research using DBN-type approaches that incorporate methods of artificial intelligence into modeling dynamic processes, especially prominent within spatial epidemiologic applications.

A framework for the risk prediction of avian influenza occurrence: An Indonesian case study

Avian influenza viruses can cause economically devastating diseases in poultry and have the potential for zoonotic transmission. To mitigate the consequences of avian influenza, disease prediction systems have become increasingly important. In this study, we have proposed a framework for the prediction of the occurrence and spread of avian influenza events in a geographical area. The application of the proposed framework was examined in an Indonesian case study. An extensive list of historical data sources containing disease predictors and target variables was used to build spatiotemporal and transactional datasets. To combine disparate sources, data rows were scaled to a temporal scale of 1-week and a spatial scale of 1-degree × 1-degree cells. Given the constructed datasets, underlying patterns in the form of rules explaining the risk of occurrence and spread of avian influenza were discovered. The created rules were combined and ordered based on their importance and then stored in a knowledge base. The results suggested that the proposed framework could act as a tool to gain a broad understanding of the drivers of avian influenza epidemics and may facilitate the prediction of future disease events.

Understanding the hidden relations between pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokine genes in bovine oviduct epithelium using a multilayer response surface method

An understanding gene-gene interaction helps users to design the next experiments efficiently and (if applicable) to make a better decision of drugs application based on the different biological conditions of the patients. This study aimed to identify changes in the hidden relationships between pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokine genes in the bovine oviduct epithelial cells (BOECs) under various experimental conditions using a multilayer response surface method. It was noted that under physiological conditions (BOECs with sperm or sex hormones, such as ovarian sex steroids and LH), the mRNA expressions of IL10, IL1B, TNFA, TLR4, and TNFA were associated with IL1B, TNFA, TLR4, IL4, and IL10, respectively. Under pathophysiological + physiological conditions (BOECs with lipopolysaccharide + hormones, alpha-1-acid glycoprotein + hormones, zearalenone + hormones, or urea + hormones), the relationship among genes was changed. For example, the expression of IL10 and TNFA was associated with (IL1B, TNFA, or IL4) and TLR4 expression, respectively. Furthermore, under physiological conditions, the co-expression of IL10 + TNFA, TLR4 + IL4, TNFA + IL4, TNFA + IL4, or IL10 + IL1B and under pathophysiological + physiological conditions, the co-expression of IL10 + IL4, IL4 + IL10, TNFA + IL10, TNFA + TLR4, or IL10 + IL1B were associated with IL1B, TNFA, TLR4, IL10, or IL4 expression, respectively. Collectively, the relationships between pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokine genes can be changed with respect to the presence/absence of toxins, sex hormones, sperm, and co-expression of other gene pairs in BOECs, suggesting that considerable cautions are needed in interpreting the results obtained from such narrowly focused in vitro studies.

The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) Study: 2018 Update

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The environmental triggers of islet autoimmunity leading to type 1 diabetes (T1D) need to be elucidated to inform primary prevention. The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) Study follows from birth 8676 children with T1D risk HLA-DR-DQ genotypes in the USA, Finland, Germany, and Sweden. Most study participants (89%) have no first-degree relative with T1D. The primary outcomes include the appearance of one or more persistent islet autoantibodies (islet autoimmunity, IA) and clinical T1D.

RECENT FINDINGS

As of February 28, 2018, 769 children had developed IA and 310 have progressed to T1D. Secondary outcomes include celiac disease and autoimmune thyroid disease. While the follow-up continues, TEDDY has already evaluated a number of candidate environmental triggers, including infections, probiotics, micronutrient, and microbiome. TEDDY results suggest that there are multiple pathways leading to the destruction of pancreatic beta-cells. Ongoing measurements of further specific exposures, gene variants, and gene-environment interactions and detailed "omics" studies will provide novel information on the pathogenesis of T1D.

Data-based Decision Rules to Personalize Depression Follow-up

Depression is a common mental illness with complex and heterogeneous progression dynamics. Risk grouping of depression treatment population based on their longitudinal patterns has the potential to enable cost-effective monitoring policy design. This paper establishes a rule-based method to identify a set of risk predictive patterns from person-level longitudinal disease measurements by integrating the data transformation, rule discovery and rule evaluation. We further extend the identified rules to create rule-based monitoring strategies to adaptively monitor individuals with different disease severities. We applied the rule-based method on an electronic health record (EHR) dataset of depression treatment population containing person-level longitudinal Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ)-9 scores for assessing depression severity. 12 risk predictive rules are identified, and the rule-based prognostic model based on identified rules enables more accurate prediction of disease severity than other prognostic models including RuleFit, logistic regression and Support Vector Machine. Two rule-based monitoring strategies outperform the latest PHQ-9 based monitoring strategy by providing higher sensitivity and specificity. The rule-based method can lead to a better understanding of disease dynamics, achieving more accurate prognostics of disease progressions, personalizing follow-up intervals, and designing cost-effective monitoring of patients in clinical practice.

An autoregressive logistic model to predict the reciprocal effects of oviductal fluid components on in vitro spermophagy by neutrophils in cattle

After intercourse/insemination, large numbers of sperm are deposited in the female reproductive tract (FRT), triggering a massive recruitment of neutrophils (PMNs) into the FRT, possibly to eliminate excessive sperm via phagocytosis. Some bovine oviductal fluid components (BOFCs) have been shown to regulate in vitro sperm phagocytosis (spermophagy) by PMNs. The modeling approach-based logistic regression (LR) and autoregressive logistic regression (ALR) can be used to predict the behavior of complex biological systems. We, first, compared the LR and ALR models using in vitro data to find which of them provides a better prediction of in vitro spermophagy in bovine. Then, the best model was used to identify and classify the reciprocal effects of BOFCs in regulating spermophagy. The ALR model was calibrated using an iterative procedure with a dynamical search direction. The superoxide production data were used to illustrate the accuracy in validating logit model-based ALR and LR. The ALR model was more accurate than the LR model. Based on in vitro data, the ALR predicted that the regulation of spermophagy by PMNs in bovine oviduct is more sensitive to alpha-1 acid glycoprotein (AGP), PGE2, bovine serum albumin (BSA), and to the combination of AGP or BSA with other BOFCs.