Detecting the Collapse of Cooperation in Evolving Networks

Time-series-analysis-based detection of critical transitions in real-world non-autonomous systems

Real-world non-autonomous systems are open, out-of-equilibrium systems that evolve in and are driven by temporally varying environments. Such systems can show multiple timescale and transient dynamics together with transitions to very different and, at times, even disastrous dynamical regimes. Since such critical transitions disrupt the systems' intended or desired functionality, it is crucial to understand the underlying mechanisms, to identify precursors of such transitions, and to reliably detect them in time series of suitable system observables to enable forecasts. This review critically assesses the various steps of investigation involved in time-series-analysis-based detection of critical transitions in real-world non-autonomous systems: from the data recording to evaluating the reliability of offline and online detections. It will highlight pros and cons to stimulate further developments, which would be necessary to advance understanding and forecasting nonlinear behavior such as critical transitions in complex systems.

Social Diversification Driven by Mobile Genetic Elements

Social diversification in microbes is an evolutionary process where lineages bifurcate into distinct populations that cooperate with themselves but not with other groups. In bacteria, this is frequently driven by horizontal transfer of mobile genetic elements (MGEs). Here, the resulting acquisition of new genes changes the recipient's social traits and consequently how they interact with kin. These changes include discriminating behaviors mediated by newly acquired effectors. Since the producing cell is protected by cognate immunity factors, these selfish elements benefit from selective discrimination against recent ancestors, thus facilitating their proliferation and benefiting the host. Whether social diversification benefits the population at large is less obvious. The widespread use of next-generation sequencing has recently provided new insights into population dynamics in natural habitats and the roles MGEs play. MGEs belong to accessory genomes, which often constitute the majority of the pangenome of a taxon, and contain most of the kin-discriminating loci that fuel rapid social diversification. We further discuss mechanisms of diversification and its consequences to populations and conclude with a case study involving myxobacteria.

Impact of direct physical association and motility on fitness of a synthetic interkingdom microbial community

Mutualistic exchange of metabolites can play an important role in microbial communities. Under natural environmental conditions, such exchange may be compromised by the dispersal of metabolites and by the presence of non-cooperating microorganisms. Spatial proximity between members during sessile growth on solid surfaces has been shown to promote stabilization of cross-feeding communities against these challenges. Nonetheless, many natural cross-feeding communities are not sessile but rather pelagic and exist in turbulent aquatic environments, where partner proximity is often achieved via direct cell-cell adhesion, and cooperation occurs between physically associated cells. Partner association in aquatic environments could be further enhanced by motility of individual planktonic microorganisms. In this work, we establish a model bipartite cross-feeding community between bacteria and yeast auxotrophs to investigate the impact of direct adhesion between prokaryotic and eukaryotic partners and of bacterial motility in a stirred mutualistic co-culture. We demonstrate that adhesion can provide fitness benefit to the bacterial partner, likely by enabling local metabolite exchange within co-aggregates, and that it counteracts invasion of the community by a non-cooperating cheater strain. In a turbulent environment and at low cell densities, fitness of the bacterial partner and its competitiveness against a non-cooperating strain are further increased by motility that likely facilitates partner encounters and adhesion. These results suggest that, despite their potential fitness costs, direct adhesion between partners and its enhancement by motility may play key roles as stabilization factors for metabolic communities in turbulent aquatic environments.

Strategically positioning cooperators can facilitate the contagion of cooperation

The spreading of cooperation in structured population is a challenging problem which can be observed at different scales of social and biological organization. Generally, the problem is studied by evaluating the chances that few initial invading cooperators, randomly appearing in a network, can lead to the spreading of cooperation. In this paper we demonstrate that in many scenarios some cooperators are more influential than others and their initial positions can facilitate the spreading of cooperation. We investigate six different ways to add initial cooperators in a network of cheaters, based on different network-based measurements. Our research reveals that strategically positioning the initial cooperators in a population of cheaters allows to decrease the number of initial cooperators necessary to successfully seed cooperation. The strategic positioning of initial cooperators can also help to shorten the time necessary for the restoration of cooperation. The optimal ways in which the initial cooperators should be placed is, however, non-trivial in that it depends on the degree of competition, the underlying game, and the network structure. Overall, our results show that, in structured populations, few cooperators, well positioned in strategically chosen places, can spread cooperation faster and easier than a large number of cooperators that are placed badly.

Information Cascades and the Collapse of Cooperation

In various types of structured communities newcomers choose their interaction partners by selecting a role-model and copying their social networks. Participants in these networks may be cooperators who contribute to the prosperity of the community, or cheaters who do not and simply exploit the cooperators. For newcomers it is beneficial to interact with cooperators but detrimental to interact with cheaters. However, cheaters and cooperators usually cannot be identified unambiguously and newcomers’ decisions are often based on a combination of private and public information. We use evolutionary game theory and dynamical networks to demonstrate how the specificity and sensitivity of those decisions can dramatically affect the resilience of cooperation in the community. We show that promiscuous decisions (high sensitivity, low specificity) are advantageous for cooperation when the strength of competition is weak; however, if competition is strong then the best decisions for cooperation are risk-adverse (low sensitivity, high specificity). Opportune decisions based on private and public information can still support cooperation but suffer of the presence of information cascades that damage cooperation, especially in the case of strong competition. Our research sheds light on the way the interplay of specificity and sensitivity in individual decision-making affects the resilience of cooperation in dynamical structured communities.

Identification of influential invaders in evolutionary populations

The identification of the most influential nodes has been a vibrant subject of research across the whole of network science. Here we map this problem to structured evolutionary populations, where strategies and the interaction network are both subject to change over time based on social inheritance. We study cooperative communities, which cheaters can invade because they avoid the cost of contributions that are associated with cooperation. The question that we seek to answer is at which nodes cheaters invade most successfully. We propose the weighted degree decomposition to identify and rank the most influential invaders. More specifically, we distinguish two kinds of ranking based on the weighted degree decomposition. We show that a ranking strategy based on negative-weighted degree allows to successfully identify the most influential invaders in the case of weak selection, while a ranking strategy based on positive-weighted degree performs better when the selection is strong. Our research thus reveals how to identify the most influential invaders based on statistical measures in dynamically evolving cooperative communities.

Effects of motion in structured populations

In evolutionary processes, population structure has a substantial effect on natural selection. Here, we analyse how motion of individuals affects constant selection in structured populations. Motion is relevant because it leads to changes in the distribution of types as mutations march towards fixation or extinction. We describe motion as the swapping of individuals on graphs, and more generally as the shuffling of individuals between reproductive updates. Beginning with a one-dimensional graph, the cycle, we prove that motion suppresses natural selection for death-birth (DB) updating or for any process that combines birth-death (BD) and DB updating. If the rule is purely BD updating, no change in fixation probability appears in the presence of motion. We further investigate how motion affects evolution on the square lattice and weighted graphs. In the case of weighted graphs, we find that motion can be either an amplifier or a suppressor of natural selection. In some cases, whether it is one or the other can be a function of the relative reproductive rate, indicating that motion is a subtle and complex attribute of evolving populations. As a first step towards understanding less restricted types of motion in evolutionary graph theory, we consider a similar rule on dynamic graphs induced by a spatial flow and find qualitatively similar results, indicating that continuous motion also suppresses natural selection.

Predicting metabolic adaptation from networks of mutational paths

Competition for substrates is a ubiquitous selection pressure faced by microbes, yet intracellular trade-offs can prevent cells from metabolizing every type of available substrate. Adaptive evolution is constrained by these trade-offs, but their consequences for the repeatability and predictability of evolution are unclear. Here we develop an eco-evolutionary model with a metabolic trade-off to generate networks of mutational paths in microbial communities and show that these networks have descriptive and predictive information about the evolution of microbial communities. We find that long-term outcomes, including community collapse, diversity, and cycling, have characteristic evolutionary dynamics that determine the entropy, or repeatability, of mutational paths. Although reliable prediction of evolutionary outcomes from environmental conditions is difficult, graph-theoretic properties of the mutational networks enable accurate prediction even from incomplete observations. In conclusion, we present a novel methodology for analyzing adaptive evolution and report that the dynamics of adaptation are a key variable for predictive success.The structure and dynamics of microbial communities reflect trade-offs in the ability to use different resources. Here, Josephides and Swain incorporate metabolic trade-offs into an eco-evolutionary model to predict networks of mutational paths and the evolutionary outcomes for microbial communities.