Value of POSSUM physiology scoring to assess outcome after intra-arterial thrombolysis for acute leg ischaemia (short note)

Nomogram Estimating the Probability of Intraabdominal Abscesses after Gastrectomy in Patients with Gastric Cancer

PURPOSE

Intraabdominal abscess is one of the most common reasons for re-hospitalization after gastrectomy. This study aimed to develop a model for estimating the probability of intraabdominal abscesses that can be used during the postoperative period.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the clinicopathological data of 1,564 patients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer between 2010 and 2012. Twenty-six related markers were analyzed, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the probability estimation model for intraabdominal abscess. Internal validation using a bootstrap approach was employed to correct for bias, and the model was then validated using an independent dataset comprising of patients who underwent gastrectomy between January 2008 and March 2010. Discrimination and calibration abilities were checked in both datasets.

RESULTS

The incidence of intraabdominal abscess in the development set was 7.80% (122/1,564). The surgical approach, operating time, pathologic N classification, body temperature, white blood cell count, C-reactive protein level, glucose level, and change in the hemoglobin level were significant predictors of intraabdominal abscess in the multivariate analysis. The probability estimation model that was developed on the basis of these results showed good discrimination and calibration abilities (concordance index=0.828, Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-statistic P=0.274). Finally, we combined both datasets to produce a nomogram that estimates the probability of intraabdominal abscess.

CONCLUSIONS

This nomogram can be useful for identifying patients at a high risk of intraabdominal abscess. Patients at a high risk may benefit from further evaluation or treatment before discharge.

Should Age Limit the Use of Catheter-Directed Thrombolysis: Results of National Survey

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether advanced age should be a contraindication to catheter-directed thrombolysis (CDT) based on hemorrhagic complication rate.

METHODS

A survey was generated via Survey Monkey and sent out to vascular surgeons who were members of the society of vascular surgery (SVS).

RESULTS

Of the responders, 32.7% state they do not have an age limit for tissue plasminogen activator (TPA) infusion, and the remaining 29.2% of the responders use 80 years of age as their limitation. When asked why place limits on age for TPA infusion, 56.6% stated concern for intracranial hemorrhage. Major complications were access site hemorrhage (58.4%) and intracranial hemorrhage (41.6%). Chi-square analysis did not show age as a limiting factor to thrombolysis. Furthermore, when asked in which age-group complications occurred most commonly, 72.4% were less than 80.

CONCLUSION

Among vascular specialist, there seems to be no consensus on age limitations for TPA infusion. Serious complications do not seem to be age related and thus age alone should not be a contraindication for catheter-directed thrombolysis.

POSSUM: A Scoring System for Perforative Peritonitis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Perforative peritonitis carries considerable morbidity and mortality with the postoperative period unpredictable most of the times. It therefore becomes necessary for a scoring system that predicts the post-operative outcome. POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity) helps in predicting the post-operative morbidity and mortality in these patients. POSSUM scores are based on 12 physiological factors and 6 operative factors. In our study, we included two more factors, which are specifically important in perforative peritonitis; they are, perforation to operation time and the presence of co-morbidity. The presence of these factors significantly affects the post-operative status. Through this prospective study, we can predict which patients are at a higher risk of death or complication and give appropriate management as necessary.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Our sample size was 50 patients with perforative peritonitis. The study was conducted in single unit from September 2013 to August 2014. Data was collected based on POSSUM scoring system. Outcome of the patients was recorded as death / alive; complicated / uncomplicated and statistical analysis was done by comparing the expected and observed outcomes.

RESULTS

By applying linear analysis, an observed to expected ratio of 1.005 was obtained for mortality and 1.001 for morbidity. There was no statistically significant difference between the observed and expected mortality rates (χ(2) = 3.54, p = 0.316) and morbidity rates (χ(2) = 2.40, p = 0.792). It was found to be comparable with other studies. The factors independently studied; perforation to operation time and presence of co-morbidity were statistically significant with respect to outcome (p<0.05).

CONCLUSION

Although a small sample size is the limitation of this study, POSSUM scoring system is a good indicator of postoperative outcome in patients with perforative peritonitis and was applicable in our setup. It is useful in identifying high risk patients and give preferential care to them for better outcome. Inclusion of factors like perforation to operation time and co-morbid status can improve the scoring system and better care can be provided.

A nomogram to calculate the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM)

BACKGROUND

The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) is a well validated model for the prediction of perioperative mortality and morbidity with application to surgery and intensive care medicine. The outcome measure calculations are time-consuming, complex and potentially error-prone. Nomograms are low-cost easy-to-use graphic devices that can be used to make repeated calculations to an acceptable level of accuracy for most clinical purposes. This paper describes a nomogram to aid calculation of POSSUM scores.

METHODS

This graphic solution consists of two sections: a tally sheet to calculate physiological and operative severity scores (PS and OS), and a nomogram to calculate mortality and morbidity. The latter was designed using standard mathematical methods, and drafted with the aid of commercially available software. Accuracy was confirmed by using a spreadsheet to generate 120 random sets of simulated values for PS and OS, and corresponding calculated values for predicted mortality and morbidity. The outcome values in each case were derived using the nomogram and compared with the spreadsheet values using Bland-Altman analysis.

RESULTS

Bland-Altman analysis showed close agreement between nomogram and spreadsheet. Bias of the nomogram was -0·1 percentage points for mortality and 0·1 percentage points for morbidity, with limits of agreement of -2·1 to +1·9 and -1·4 to +1·6 percentage points for mortality and morbidity respectively. Correlation coefficients were r > 0·999 and P < 0·001 for both mortality and morbidity.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram provides a rapid, accurate, low-cost means of performing, visualizing and cross-checking POSSUM calculations.

Evaluation of POSSUM for patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy

Background

Comparison of operative morbidity rates after pancreatoduodenectomy between units may be misleading because it does not take into account the physiological variable of the condition of the patients. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) for pancreatoduodenectomy patients and to look for risk factors associated with morbidity in a high-volume center.

Methods

Between January 1993 and April 2006, 652 patients underwent a pancreatoduodenectomy, 502 of them for malignant disease. POSSUM performance was evaluated by assessing the “goodness-of-fit” with the linear analysis method.

Results

Overall, 332 of the 652 patients (50.9%) had one or more complication after pancreatoduodenectomy, and 9 patients (1.4%) died. POSSUM had a significant lack of fit using goodness-of-fit analysis. In multivariate analysis, one statistically significant factor associated with morbidity and not incorporated in POSSUM (P < 0.05) was identified: ampulla of Vater adenocarcinoma (OR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.07–2.80).

Conclusions

Overall, there is a lack of calibration of POSSUM among patients who undergo pancreatoduodenectomy.

Pre-operative risk scores for the prediction of outcome in elderly people who require emergency surgery

Background

The decision on whether to operate on a sick elderly person with an intra-abdominal emergency is one of the most difficult in general surgery. A predictive risk-score would be of great value in this situation.

Methods

A Medline search was performed to identify those predictive risk-scores relevant to sick elderly patients in whom emergency surgery might be life-saving.

Results

Many of the risk scores for surgical patients include the operative findings or require tests which are not available in the acute situation. Most of the relevant studies include younger patients and elective surgery. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score and Hardman Index are specific to ruptured aortic aneurysm while the Boey Score and the Hacetteppe Score are specific to perforated peptic ulcer. The Reiss Index and Fitness Score can be used pre-operatively if the elements of the score can be completed in time. The ASA score, which includes a significant element of subjective clinical judgement, can be augmented with factors such as age and urgency of surgery but no test has a negative predictive value sufficient to recommend against surgical intervention without clinical input.

Conclusion

Risk scores may be helpful in sick elderly patients needing emergency abdominal surgery but an experienced clinical opinion is still essential.

The current role of intra-arterial thrombolysis

BACKGROUND

the role of intra arterial thrombolysis (IAT) in the management of peripheral vascular disease has come under scrutiny. This study aims to assess current usage and indications for IAT in the U.K.

METHOD

the use of IAT was assessed at our own centre and a questionnaire was sent to all centres that provide data for the U.K. "Thrombolysis Study Group".

RESULTS

there has been a steady decline in the use of IAT at our centre from a peak of 40 cases per annum to zero. Response was received from 22 of 24 centres (92%). Nineteen (86%) reported a decline in IAT use. Main reasons were concerns over lack of efficacy (74%) and complication rate (63%). Most centres would use IAT for acute limb ischaemia (86%). However, for acute thrombosis in specific indications the results varied; synthetic graft (82%), vein graft (54%), supra-inguinal graft (54%) and thrombosed popliteal artery aneurysm (54%). When asked what their commonest usage for IAT was, the results again varied; acute limb ischaemia (40%), graft thrombosis (40%), embolism post radiological intervention (12%), other (8%).

CONCLUSION

there has been a significant decrease in IAT use. Concerns exist as to efficacy and complication rate. There is no clear consensus on indications.

The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM)

BACKGROUND AND METHODS

The development of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) is described and its methods of analysis and value in a modern surgical practice are reviewed. A computerized search of all published data in Medline, the Cochrane Library and Embase was made for the last 12 years. Relevant articles were then searched manually for further papers on risk analysis, case-mix comparison and POSSUM methodology.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

POSSUM has been evaluated extensively in both general and specialist surgery. While there are problems with both data collection and analysis, when used correctly POSSUM can usefully compare outcomes between surgeons and between hospitals. In specialist surgery, individual regression equations may be needed for each index procedure.