Development and validation of a simulation model for blowfly strike of sheep

Using weather data to predict the presence of Lucilia spp. on sheep farms in New Zealand

Flystrike remains an important animal health issue on New Zealand sheep farms. To date no useful predictive tool to assist farmers to develop control options has been available. The aim of this study was to use National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) virtual climate station data in New Zealand to develop a weather-based model to accurately predict the presence of Lucilia spp. on sheep farms throughout New Zealand. Three LuciTrap® baited fly traps were positioned on each of eight sheep farms throughout New Zealand (5 in the North Island and 3 in the South Island). The traps were put out for both the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 seasons. They were emptied each week and the flies morphologically identified; with the counts of Lucilia cuprina and L. sericata combined as Lucilia spp. The count data for Lucilia spp. for each week of trapping was transformed into a binary outcome and a generalised linear mixed effects models fitted to the data, with farm as a random effect. The dependent variable was Lucilia spp. flies caught, yes or no, and the independent variables were mean weekly climate variables from the nearest NIWA virtual climate station to that farm. The model was trained on the 2018-2019 catch data and tested on the 2019-2020 catch data. A cut point was identified which maximised the model's ability to correctly predict whether Lucilia spp. were present or not for the 2019-2020 catch data, and the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the curve (AUC) of the model calculated. The final model included just 3 significant variables, mean weekly 10 cm soil temperature, mean weekly soil moisture index, and mean weekly wind speed at 10 m. Mean weekly 10 cm soil temperature accounted for 64.7% of the variance explained by the model, mean weekly soil moisture index 34.7% and mean weekly wind speed at 10 m only 0.6%. The results showed that the predictive model had a sensitivity of 0.93 (95% CI = 0.80-0.98) and a specificity of 0.75 (95% CI = 0.62-0.85), using a cut point for the probability of Lucilia spp. being present on farm = 0.383. This model provides New Zealand farmers with a tool which will allow them to know when Lucilia spp. flies will likely be present and thus more accurately plan their interventions to prevent flystrike.

Traumatic sheep myiasis: A review of the current understanding

Myiasis, or the infestation of live humans and vertebrate animals by dipterous larvae, is a health issue worldwide. The economic impact and potential threat to animal health and wellbeing of this disease under the animal husbandry sector is considerable. Sheep are a highly vulnerable livestock category exposed to myiasis (sheep strike), due to several unique predisposing factors that attract flies. The successful mitigation of this disease relies on a thorough understanding of fly population dynamics associated with the change in weather patterns and the evaluation of this disease through different branches of science such as chemistry, molecular biology, and microbiology. The present review provides a summary of the existing knowledge of strike in sheep, discussed in relation to the application of volatile organic compounds, metagenomics, and molecular biology, and their use regarding implementing fly control strategies such as traps, and to increase the resilience of sheep to this disease through improving their health and wellbeing.

Detail and the devil of on-farm parasite control under climate change

Levels and seasonal patterns of parasite challenge to livestock are likely to be affected by climate change, through direct effects on life cycle stages outside the definitive host and through alterations in management that affect exposure and susceptibility. Net effects and options for adapting to them will depend very strongly on details of the system under consideration. This short paper is not a comprehensive review of climate change effects on parasites, but rather seeks to identify key areas in which detail is important and arguably under-recognized in supporting farmer adaptation. I argue that useful predictions should take fuller account of system-specific properties that influence disease emergence, and not just the effects of climatic variables on parasite biology. At the same time, excessive complexity is ill-suited to useful farm-level decision support. Dealing effectively with the ‘devil of detail’ in this area will depend on finding the right balance, and will determine our success in applying science to climate change adaptation by farmers.

Comparative costs, chemical treatments and flystrike rates in mulesed and unmulesed sheep flocks as predicted by a weather-driven model

A computer model for flystrike risk was used to predict the expected costs, pesticide used and number of sheep struck, according to time of shearing and crutching, for the regions Flinders Island, Gunning and Inverell. A comparison was carried out between mulesed and unmulesed sheep and the program optimised the preventive chemical treatments required to minimise overall costs associated with flystrike and flock treatments. This study examined cost differences between mulesed and unmulesed hoggets and ewes where the only change in management was in the method and timing of pesticide treatment. The model indicated that unmulesed sheep would require more frequent treatment with longer lasting pesticides. Costs associated with flystrike were estimated to increase by $220 per thousand sheep per year (ewes) or $349 (hoggets) for Flinders Island, $445 or $512 (Gunning) and $363 or $844 (Inverell). For unmulesed sheep the model indicated that dicyclanil might be required rather than cyromazine to provide acceptable flystrike control at a lower cost. Despite this increase in preventive treatment for unmulesed sheep, the predicted number of struck sheep was higher for Gunning and Inverell, but not for Flinders Island, where the model did not always require routine preventive treatment for mulesed sheep. In regions with a flystrike problem, avoiding any increase in strike after ceasing to mules was estimated to double the cost of preventive measures for most shearing dates. The date of shearing had a significant effect on total costs related to flystrike and in some cases shearing during the fly season increased costs and increased strike by interfering with the most efficient use of preventive treatment. Crutching reduced costs in some cases, but in other situations the timing of crutching interfered with the optimum timing of chemical treatment and the model sometimes predicted worse outcomes than with no crutching. The timing of shearing, crutching and treatment must be carefully managed if both costs and the number of struck sheep are to be minimised. Control of flystrike was found to be most efficient when there was a single period of high risk of strike or two equal periods of strike risk, rather than one short and one long period.

Emerging parasitic diseases of sheep

There have been changes in the emergence and inability to control of a number of sheep parasitic infections over the last decade. This review focuses on the more globally important sheep parasites, whose reported changes in epidemiology, occurrence or failure to control are becoming increasingly evident. One of the main perceived driving forces is climate change, which can have profound effects on parasite epidemiology, especially for those parasitic diseases where weather has a direct effect on the development of free-living stages. The emergence of anthelmintic-resistant strains of parasitic nematodes and the increasing reliance placed on anthelmintics for their control, can exert profound changes on the epidemiology of those nematodes causing parasitic gastroenteritis. As a consequence, the effectiveness of existing control strategies presents a major threat to sheep production in many areas around the world. The incidence of the liver fluke, Fasciola hepatica, is inextricably linked to high rainfall and is particularly prevalent in high rainfall years. Over the last few decades, there have also been increasing reports of other fluke associated diseases, such as dicroceliosis and paramphistomosis, in a number of western European countries, possibly introduced through animal movements, and able to establish with changing climates. External parasite infections, such as myiasis, can cause significant economic loss and presents as a major welfare problem. The range of elevated temperatures predicted by current climate change scenarios, result in an elongated blowfly season with earlier spring emergence and a higher cumulative incidence of fly strike. Additionally, legislative decisions leading to enforced changes in pesticide usage and choices have resulted in increased reports and spread of ectoparasitic infections, particularly mite, lice and tick infestations in sheep. Factors, such as dip disposal and associated environmental concerns, and, perhaps more importantly, product availability have led to a move away from more traditional methods of pesticide application, particularly dipping, to the use of injectable endectocides. This has coincided with increased reports of sheep scab and lice infestations in some countries. Reduction in the use of organophosphate dips appears to have to some extent contributed to reported increased populations of ticks and tick activity, a consequence of which is not only of significance to sheep, but also many other hosts, including increased human zoonotic risks.

Modelling the impact of climate change on spatial patterns of disease risk: sheep blowfly strike by Lucilia sericata in Great Britain

Understanding the spatial scale and temporal pattern of disease incidence is a fundamental prerequisite for the development of appropriate management and intervention strategies. It is particularly critical, given the need to understand the elevated risks linked to climate change, to allow the most likely changes in the distribution of parasites and disease vectors to be predicted under a range of climate change scenarios. Using statistical models, the spatial distribution and climatic correlates of a range of parasites and diseases have been mapped previously, but their development into dynamic, predictive tools is less common. The aim of the work described here, was to use a species distribution model to characterise the environmental determinants of the monthly occurrence of ovine cutaneous myiasis (blowfly strike) by Lucilia sericata, the most frequent primary agent of northern European myiasis, and to then use this model to describe the potential spatial changes that might be expected in response to predicted climate change in Great Britain. The model predicts that the range of elevated temperatures predicted by current climate change scenarios will result in an increase in the risk of strike and an elongated blowfly season. However, even for the most rapid warming scenario predictions over the next 70 years, strike is not predicted to occur throughout the winter. Nevertheless, in this latter case, parts of central and southern England are likely to become too hot and dry for strike by L. sericata, to persist in mid-summer. Under these conditions, it is possible that other, more pathogenic Mediterranean agents of myiasis, such as Wolfhartia magnifica, could potentially replace L. sericata. Where the phenology of strike is altered by climate change, as predicted here, significant changes to the timing and frequency of parasite treatments and husbandry practices, such as shearing, will be required to manage the problem. The results suggest that the modelling approach adopted here could be usefully applied to a range of disease systems.

Climate change and parasitic disease: farmer mitigation?

Global climate change predictions suggest that far-ranging effects might occur in the population dynamics and distributions of livestock parasites, provoking fears of widespread increases in disease incidence and production loss. However, several biological mechanisms (including increased parasite mortality and more rapid acquisition of immunity), in tandem with changes in husbandry practices (including reproduction, housing, nutrition, breed selection, grazing patterns and other management interventions), might act to mitigate increased parasite development rates, preventing dramatic rises in overall levels of disease. Such changes might, therefore, counteract predicted climate-driven increases in parasite challenge. Optimum mitigation strategies will be highly system specific and depend on detailed understanding of interactions between climate, parasite abundance, host availability and the cues for and economics of farmer intervention.

Sheep blowfly strike risk and management in Great Britain: a survey of current practice

The methods used for the control of sheep blowfly strike (ovine cutaneous myiasis) and the farm management factors associated with strike prevalence were examined using data from questionnaire survey returns provided by 966 sheep farmers in Great Britain, based on the period between March 2003 and February 2004. Overall, 91% of participants treated prophylactically with insecticides against blowfly strike; 39% treated twice and 11% treated more than three times in the year. Insect growth regulators (IGRs) were the most commonly chosen product (40%), especially the IGR cyromazine. Only 12% of farmers opted to dip their sheep in organophosphate insecticide against fly strike and 2% of farmers reported applying inappropriate products against strike to their sheep, such as ivermectin or 'drenches'. Farmers worming their ewes more often were 0.8 times less likely to report blowfly strike, but those who wormed their lambs more often were 1.2 times more likely to report strike. Pure-breed flocks were 0.7 times less likely to record an outbreak of blowfly strike than cross-breed flocks. Strike was less likely in ewe flocks grazed at higher altitude; however, this relationship with altitude was not seen in lambs. The results show that insecticides remain the primary tool used by almost all farmers to prevent strike and that the type of insecticides used and means of application have altered dramatically over the past 15 years. However, the prevalence of strike has remained almost unchanged over this period. Clearly careful attention to the type and timing of insecticide application, in association with a detailed understanding of the husbandry factors that predispose sheep to higher strike risk, is essential to allow the optimal management of strike problems.

Fly abundance and climate as determinants of sheep blowfly strike incidence in southwest England

The relationships between abundance of the blowfly Lucilia sericata (Meigen) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), climate, animal management procedures and the incidence of cutaneous myiasis (blowfly strike) in sheep were examined in three sheep pasture systems in southwest England during the summers of 2002 and 2003. In each year, flies were collected using liver-baited sticky targets, daily weather and routine husbandry practices were noted and the age-class of each animal infested and body position of each strike were recorded. On sites where no strike control was used, 5.8-12.1% of ewes and 5.7-15.8% of lambs were struck. Ewe strikes predominated at the beginning of the season. The incidence of ewe strikes was significantly associated with higher mean temperature, rainfall and shearing; shearing was associated with a 95% reduction in the risk of ewe strike. In lambs, the incidence of strike was significantly related to higher fly abundance, ewe shearing, treatment and mean ambient temperature. Lambs were 4.6 times more likely to be struck after the ewes had been shorn than before; however, the strongest relationship was with mean L. sericata abundance. Average minimum threshold temperatures of 9.5 degrees C for lamb strikes and 8.5 degrees C for all strikes were extrapolated, below which oviposition did not occur. Over 80% of ewe strikes occurred in the breech region in 2002, as did 100% in 2003. However, in lambs both body and breech strikes occurred in both years. The distribution of lamb strikes appeared to change over time, with breech strikes predominating in May, June and July and body strikes occurring increasingly later in the season. The incidence of lamb breech strikes was significantly associated with higher L. sericata abundance and ewe shearing but there was no relationship with weather conditions. By contrast, the risk of body strike in lambs was significantly associated with higher blowfly abundance, higher rainfall and higher maximum temperatures. The relationship between strike incidence and L. sericata abundance is important because it enhances our understanding of strike incidence patterns and management of this disease. Clearly, any factors that facilitate larger L. sericata populations, such as inappropriate carcass burial or increased average ambient temperatures, are likely to increase the incidence of strike.

Ectoparasites: Future challenges in a changing world

Ectoparasites are ubiquitous, often highly damaging and in most cases cannot be permanently eradicated; hence, they must usually be managed at a local scale with insecticides or endectocides. However, the growth in resistance, the slow rate of development of new actives, coupled with environmental and health concerns associated with the continued use of some of the existing neurotoxic insecticides, suggest that more sophisticated approaches to their management need to be identified. These approaches need to allow ectoparasite populations to be maintained at acceptable levels, while conserving the compounds that remain available. The development of integrated approaches, in which cascades of management tactics are deployed, with parasiticides available as one component to be used in requisite circumstances, may be the most appropriate route to achieving this aim. An essential element of such an approach is the clear articulation of the purpose of intervention and rational justification of the time-point and manner in which it is attempted. However, for this to be possible, considerably better information is required about the effects of ectoparasite abundance on animal welfare and productivity, in addition to the greater availability of effective alternative control tools. To this end, recent work undertaken at the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Bristol, into the use of biological control agents, off-host trapping and the selective treatment of more highly susceptible individuals or classes of host, is reviewed here.

Estimating the incidence of fly myiases in Australian sheep flocks: development of a weather-driven regression model

The blowfly, Lucilia cuprina Wiedemann (Diptera: Calliphoridae), is the primary myiasis (strike) fly of sheep in Australia. Most strike occurs in the anal-perineum area (crutch), but strike to the neck, shoulders, back and withers (body) is also important. Regression analysis was used to determine the extent to which the weekly incidence of flystrike can be explained by variations in fly abundance and/or recent changes in weather, pasture conditions or flock management. Strike and flock management data were collected by questionnaire surveys of 30-60 sheep properties in each of three major sheep-producing areas in southeastern Australia, namely, Gunning (southern New South Wales), Inverell (northern New South Wales) and Flinders Island (Bass Strait). After using simulation modelling to remove effects due to shearing, crutching and/or insecticide treatment, pasture growth index was found to be the most important explanatory variable affecting the incidence of all forms of myiasis. Others were average weekly air temperature, the amount and frequency of rainfall, relative humidity, dung quality index and a factor denoting seasonal effects. Together, these variables accounted for 48.4% of the variation in body strike, 56.8% of that in crutch strike and 51.9% of that in other forms of strike. Prediction was improved by the inclusion of additional lagged variables describing previous strike, fly abundance and fly activity. With these additions, the variation explained increased to 60.4% for body strike, 68.0% for crutch strike and 58.3% for other strikes.